GLOBEFORM'S

BREEDERS' CUP

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Welcome to our subscription section

with full focus on the 2016 Breeders' Cup

- In-depth formnotes on all races


- B Cup contenders in focus


- Juveniles analyzed


- Best early value bets


- Race by race previews


- Globeform ratings


- Top rating and ratings achieved most recent runs

- Raceday Selections & Betting Plans, P4 plans, double plans etc.

Click the large buttons above for your copy of Globeform's Breeders' Cup Preview Magazines

THREE 12-1 SHOTS MUST BE BACKED, PLUS 168-1 TREBLE

185 horses were pre-entered for the Breeders' Cup Series, staged at Santa Anita on November 4-5. Bookmakers immediately updated their lists, and quite a few of them made a mistake regarding three horses. Three seriously strong contenders, all priced up at a massive 12-1. Which means that a win treble on this trio comes to 168-1. Well worth a shot.

LA CORONEL (JUVENILE FILLIES TURF) 12-1

This Mark Casse trained filly is facing stiff opposition, not least from Europe, but that was the case also when Catch a Glimpse won the Juvenile Fillies Turf last year – and was recommended at 14-1 on these pages. Think back. We actually got 14-1 about as good a runner as Catch a Glimpse. The Breeders' Cup certainly is the one weekend of the year when we can back some ridiculously overpriced horses.

La Coronel's form is excellent and jockey Florent Geroux compared her to Catch a Glimpse already after she broke her maiden at Saratoga in September. Backing horses based on their riders' hopes and expectations has never been a good strategy, but Geroux seldom speaks in capital letters and it is easy to understand why he is so keen on his chances. The Colonel John daughter, who had run fifth over 5.5 furlongs on dirt when making her debut, slammed Chad Brown''s filly NEW MONEY HONEY by 4 lengths at the Spa. Her runner-up franked the form when winning the Miss Grillo at Belmont Park next time out, beating French import RYMSKA easily by almost three lengths. Rymska was coming off a Listed win in France (albeit off Broadway). Not that La Coronel needed help from others to advertise her form. She went for the Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland on October 12, and produced a visually impressive performance to win again, this time by 4 ¼ lengths from LULL, who had captured the Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Kentucky Downs some five weeks earlier.

Open to more improvement, proven over the distance, and with two wins on firm ground in the book already, La Coronel is much too big at 12-1 for this race.

IRONICUS (BREEDERS' CUP MILE) 12-1

Having backed this Mile contender already, at 8-1 and 9-1 last week, it is slightly annoying to see IRONICUS now being priced up at 12-1. But that's only if you're not happy to go in again. I know I am. 'The bigger the price, the bigger the bet' is not at all a bad rule. The Shug McGaughey trained runner has really impressed me this season, despite having lost two big races. His runs in defeat were much better efforts than what it looks on paper. He was checked at a crucial stage in the home straight when staying on for second behind BC Tuf favorite Flintshire in the 10-furlong Manhattan at Belmont Park in June, and given far too much to do when flying late to lose by just a nose to MISS TEMPLE CITY in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland – his final prep for the Breeders' Cup. Ironicus, who made up a lot of ground from off a moderate pace at Keeneland, was by far the best horse that day. He was in front one stride after passing the winning post. A most unlucky loser. Never mind, it was a prep and it was an ideal prep. Also useful to us, as we can now get 12-1 about him making amends at Santa Anita, where he will hopefully get a decent draw, the firm ground he likes, and a strong pace to close into. He was heavily backed at Keeneland, by the way, where he went off as the 2-1 favorite.

An impeccably bred son of Distorted Humor, Ironicus has won 6 of his 14 races, finished second 6 times and third once. In other words, he has missed out on a trifecta spot just once (when he was 65-1 racing over 7 furlongs / dirt on his debut). 12-1 is impossible to resist here. What a great each-way wager he is.

ECTOT (BREEDERS' CUP TURF) 12-1

He beat Flintshire fair and square, by no less than 5 lengths, in the Turf Classic Invitational over this distance at Belmont Park, still Todd Pletcher's ex-French runner ECTOT can be backed at 12-1 as they meet again in the BC Turf.

Flintshire is around 7-4 on these betting lists. Perhaps this is a case of 'go figure'? Of course, the factors that Ectot got loose on the lead and that Flintshire does not care much for soft ground must be taken into consideration. Though the difference in their prices should not be that big. Ectot led all the way at Belmont but he did set a decent pace, and he quickened right away at the top of the lane to win with authority. Flintshire had no chance at any stage. He will be much, much sharper on firm ground at Santa Anita – make no mistake about that - but who's to say Ectot can't be efficient on firm ground too. He does not show a typical soft ground action and it is worth noting that his two Group wins in France at three both came on firm ground. Probably not as firm as we can expect on Breeders' Cup day, but not soft either. He beat Teletext and Adelaide (Secretariat and Cox Plate winner) impressively in the 2014 edition of the Prix Niel, making him a 6-1 shot when he met Treve & Co. in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on firm ground three weeks later (where he pulled hard early on, and was always at the back). Going further back in his form, he beat subsequent French 2,000 Guineas and Breeders' Cup Mile winner Karakontie in the Prix Fontainebleau. Ectot has showed high class form in his 3yo season and perhaps his success at Belmont showed that he has finally regained it.

Ectot may not seem as strong a bet as Ironicus is in the Mile, but wait a minute, this guy has already beaten the favorite – and he has less to worry about (in terms of draw / traffic etc) than Ironicus has in his race. So perhaps backing Ectot makes every bit as much sense.

Posted October 27

Arrogate winning the Travers Stakes. Photo: NYRA

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC

Santa Anita 5 Nov 2016 - 1 ¼ miles dirt

Horses presented with best Globeform, name,

GF ratings last three runs (l-to-r), traner / rider


Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 2lbs over this distance.

138p - ARROGATE 3yo (?p - ?p - 138p) / B Baffert / M Smith


135 - CALIFORNIA CHROME (124 – 135 – 130) / A Scherman / V Espinoza


128? - FROSTED (128? - 125 - 120+) / K McLaughlin / J Rosario


121 - HOPPERTUNITY (108+c - 114 – 120) / B Baffert / J Velazquez


121 - EFFINEX (119 – 117 – 120) / J Jerkens / F Prat


121 - KEEN ICE (91 – 108 – 99+) / T Pletcher / J Castellano


117 - MELATONIN (116t – 116 – 117t) / D Hofmans / J Talamo


117 - SHAMAN GHOST (114 – 103 – 117) / J Jerkens / Ortiz


110 - WIN THE SPACE (104 – 0 – 110) / G Papaprodromou / G Stevens


104 - WAR STORY (? - 91 – 104) / M Serey Jr / Speith


Winner 2015: American Pharoah / Globeform 134

Globeform rating codes

p = performance rated with a “plus”, improvement expected


+ = likely to progress off this run, and has shown better previously


t = “trip”, i.e. favoured by trip (normally soft lead)


c = “compromised” (normally by slow pace scenario)


? = rating with “?” attached, indicates uncertain / unreliable form

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF (G1)

Santa Anita 4 Nov 2016 - 1 mile Turf

Horses presented with best

Globeform, name, trainer / rider

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 2lbs over this distance.

112p - LA CORONEL / M Casse / F Geroux


112 - ROLY POLY / A P O'Brien / tba


111p - INTRICATELY / J O'Brien / tba


111 - HYDRANGEA / A P O'Brien / tba


108p - SPAIN BURG / X Thomas-Demeaulte / F Dettori


105p - NEW MONEY HONEY / C Brown / tba


105p - VICTORY TO VICTORY / M Casse


104 - CAVALE DOREE / C Ferland / tba


104 - RYMSKA / C Brown / tba


102 - LULL / C Clement / tba


101 - COASTED / L Gayamati / tba


..99 - MADAM DANCEALOT / R Baltas / tba


..98 - CON TE PARTIRO / W Ward / tba


..98 - HAPPY MESA / G Motion / tba


ALSO ELIGIBLES

...98 - HAPPY MESA / G Motion / tba

...95 - LA FORCE / P Gallagher / tba

...98 - CON TE PARTIRO / W Ward

…?P - SWEEPING PADDY / D Romans

….? - MAJESTIC GALE / J Sharp

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE (G1)

Santa Anita 5 Nov 2016 – 1 1/16 miles dirt

Horses presented with best

Globeform, name,trainer / rider


Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 2lbs over this distance.

118p - NOT THIS TIME / D Romans / R Albarado


116p - GORMLEY / J Shirreffs / V Espinoza


116p - KLIMT / B Baffert / R Bejarano / Photo above: Benoit


115p - PRACTICAL JOKE / C Brown / tba


115p - SYNDERGAARD / T Pletcher / J Velazquez


111p - CLASSIC EMPIRE / M Casse / J Leparoux


111p - THEORY / T Pletcher / J Castellano


107p - THREE RULES / J Pinchin / C Velasquez


105p - LOOKIN AT LEE / S Asmussen / R Santana Jr


101p - STAR EMPIRE / W Ward / tba


…?p - TERM OF ART / D O'Neill / tba

GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

JUVENILE TURF CONTENDERS

GOOD SAMARITAN, (Photo: NYRA) who was also under consideration for the Juvenile, gets the vote here – in what is a highly competitive event. And a race where the home team is much stronger than what has been the case in previous editions.

Good Samaritan made an impressive debut when he won the best juvenile maiden race on turf at Saratoga, where he came with a fine run from off the pace to collar subsequent winner TICONDEROGA close home and win by a head. J. S. CHOICE, who broke his maiden with ease next time out, was fifth. Good Samaritan was upped in class, and went for the Summer Stakes at Woodbine just over a month later. Conquest Farenheit had been deeply impressive in his prep for that mile contest and he was made a warm favorite by the bettors. He had no chance when Good Samaritan delivered his challenge. Confidently ridden at the back, he came through very smoothly at the finish, to beat Conquest Farenheit by 1 ½ lengths going away. Vanda Stakes winner CHANNEL MAKER was third and Tiz a Slam finished fourth. The latter was a game odds-on winner of the Cup and Saucer Stakes next time out. All in all, Good Samaritan's form is very solid.

OSCAR PERFORMANCE, a classy son of turf champion Kitten's Joy, is a big danger. He is coming off a most impressive 6-length win over J. S. CHOICE in the Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont Park, where he made all and won the race with a bit in hand. Kitten's Cat finished third. The Pilgrim was run over 8.5 furlongs on soft ground, and Oscar Performance displayed the useful combination of speed and stamina. Note that he was racing on firm ground when breaking his maiden over the same distance at Saratoga in August, when he strolled home by 10 ½ lengths from One of a Kind (won a decent Churchill maiden on Sunday), with Focus Group third and Bonus Points back in fourth (a winner since and third in the Awad Stakes last Saturday).

LANCASTER BOMBER may be the best of the Europeans and we all know what that means. It means he has a winning chance of course. He was 66-1 and used as a pacemaker for Aidan O'Brien's best juvenile Churchill in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket on October 8. Having looked a beaten horse – as expected – going into the final furlong, Lancaster Bomber rallied to get back up for second, beaten only 1 ¼ lengths by his high profile stable companion (who is 5-for-6 and favourite for next year's 2,000 Guineas). Was it a fluke? Perhaps not. Lancaster Bomber did it the hard way, that's for sure. The form looked very smart when Rivet, who finished fifth, went on to win the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster two weeks later, and even better when Thunder Snow (fourth in the Dewhurst) hacked up in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud on Sunday (beating Dewhurst sixth South Seas to win by 5 lengths). Lancaster Bomber's best piece of form is certainly working out like a dream and he must be a serious contender – his early speed will stand him in good stead at Santa Anita and the way he ran on at the death in the Dewhurst proved that he has stamina too. A strongly run race would suit him at Santa Anita.

INTELLIGENCE CROSS, like Lancaster Bomber representing Aidan O'Brien, is also in with a shot based on his European form. He is a different type though. While he has a Group win to his name, something Lancaster Bomber lacks, he has yet to race over further than 6 furlongs. A son of War Front, he has tackled that distance in all of his six starts to date. After being placed twice in G2 contests won by the very precocious Mehmas in the summer, Intelligence Cross landed a G3 at the Curragh towards the end of August. He won easily by 4 ½ lengths from Holy Cat. Four weeks later he turned up at Newmarket for the Middle Park Stakes, where he ran fourth as a 10-1 shot, beaten 3 ½ lengths by the upset winner The Last Lion. Blue Point was second in the Middle Park and subsequently half a length behind Lancaster Bomber when third in the Dewhurst.

RODAINI is trained by Simon Crisford, who for years was the racing manager to Godolphin. Crisford has had a good start to his training career and his juveniles are showing a 27% strike rate in Britain this year. Rodaini has contributed greatly to this impressive record, with 4 wins from 5 starts. He was gradually improving through his first four races, winning over 6 furlongs at Leicester, then over seven at Lingfield Park, Newmarket and Doncaster, where he beat Salsabeel and subsequent G3 winner Larchmont Lad in a Listed event in September. Rodaini went for the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket after this but ran no sort of a race and was eased (ninth of ten behind Best Solution).

BIG SCORE, who had been beaten a length by BOWIES HERO when trying to concede 2lbs in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, reversed the form in fine style in the Zuma Beach Stakes here at Santa Anita a month and a week later. Big Score, a neat and handy sort (and a late foal) is progressing really well for Tim Yakteen and he should not be underestimated. His three runs to date have all been over a mile on turf. He came from just off the pace to win the Zuma Beach impressively by 3 ¼ lengths from Sonic Boom (a 5-length maiden winner at Kentucky Downs on his previous start). Ventry Bay finished third and the ex-English Harbour Master took fourth, while Bowies Hero was well below par and could manage only eighth.

MADE YOU LOOK was beaten almost four lengths when second to the filly Red Lodge in a 5-furlong maiden at Belmont Park in May. The Pletcher trainee improved to beat Master Merion over 6 furlongs at the same venue in June, and again when winning the With Anticipation over 8.5 furlongs at Saratoga in late August, when he was a solid 2-length winner from KEEP QUIET, who franked the form by winning the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland last month (by 1 ¼ lengths from the slow starting and green favorite TICONDEROGA).

FAVORABLE OUTCOME is the 'dark horse' in this stack, as he is switching from dirt to turf. Trained by Chad Brown, this son of Flatter won what looked an ordinary 6-furlong maiden (for Saratoga) when coming home 6 lengths clear of Condo Prince on his debut back in August. He next was thrown in at the deep end in the Champagne, over a mile at Belmont Park in October, and ran a creditable third, 6 ½ lengths behind Practical Joke, who will represent Brown in the Juvenile on Saturday.

Winner 2015: Hit It A Bomb / Globeform 112p

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF (G1)

Santa Anita 4 Nov 2016 - 1 mile Turf


Horses presented with best

Globeform, name,trainer / rider


Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 2lbs over this distance.

115 - LANCASTER BOMBER / A P O'Brien / tba


110p - GOOD SAMARITAN / B Mott / J Rosario


110p - OSCAR PERFORMANCE / B Lynch


109 - INTELLIGENCE CROSS / A P O'Brien / tba


107p - BIG SCORE / T Yakteen / F Prat


107p - MADE YOU LOOK / T Pletcher / tba


107p - WELLABLED / L Rivelli / E T Baird


105p - BOWIES HERO / P D'Amato / tba


105 - KEEP QUIET / M Casse / F Beroux


103 - RODAINI / S Crisford / F Dettori


103 - CHANNEL MAKER / D J Vella / tba


102p - TICONDEROGA / C Brown / tba


102p - FAVORABLE OUTCOME / C Brown / tba


100 - J. S. CHOICE / T Pletcher / tba

ALSO ELIGIBLES

...95p - KITTEN'S CAT / J Sharp / tba

...97 - HARBOUR MASTER / J Cassidy / tba

…?p - HOOTIE / M McCarthy / tba

…?p - SHIRAZ / M Maker / tba

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP

FILLY & MARE SPRINT (G1)

Santa Anita 5 Nov 2016 - 7 fur dirt


Horses presented with best Globeform, name,

GF ratings last three runs (l-to-r), trainer, rider

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 2lbs over this distance.

120 - CARINA MIA 3yo (120 – 114 – 116 – 112) / B Mott / tba / Photo: Churchill Downs Inc.


118 - WAVELL AVENUE (118 in 2015 / 116 - ? - 107 – 113) / C Brown / tba


117 - HAVEYOUGONEAWAY (?p – 113 – 117) / T Morley / tba


117 - PAULASSILVERLINING (117 – 109 – 117) / M Nevin


117 - IRISH JASPER (? - ?p – 117?) / D S Ryan / tba


115 - TARA'S TANGO (115 – 108 – 114 – 103) / J Hollendorfer / tba


114 - BY THE MOON (110 – 107 – 114 – 114) / M Nevin / tba


112 - FINEST CITY (112 – 110 – 103 – 110) / I Kruljac / tba


111 - PAOLA QUEEN 3yo (102 – 102 – 111 – 96) / G Delgado / tba


111 - SPELLING AGAIN (111 – 107 – 97 – 107) / B Cox / tba


110 - WONDER GAL (104 – 110 – 101) L Gyarmati / tba


110 - GLORYZAPPER (107 – 103 – 110) P D'Amato / tba


110 - GOMO 3yo (110 in 2015 / 92 – 104+) D O'Neill / M Gutierrez


108 - ENCHANTING LADY (102 – 93 – 106 – 108) / B Baffert / tba

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TURF (G1)

Santa Anita 5 Nov 2016 - 10 fur Turf


Horses presented with best Globeform, name,

GF ratings last three runs (l-to-r), trainer, rider


Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 2lbs over this distance.

120 - LADY ELI (116 // 112+ - 117+) / C Brown / I Ortiz Jr (Photo: Breeders' Cup Inc.)


120 - PHOTO CALL (101 – 106 – 120t) / T Pletcher / tba


118 - ALICE SPRINGS 3yo (96 – 118 – 116) / A P O'Brien / R Moore


116 - SEA CALISI (111+ - 116 – 114) / C Brown / tba


116 - CATCH A GLIMPSE 3yo (116t – 116 – 0) / M Casse /


116 - SEVENTH HEAVEN 3yo (116 – 116 - 108) / A P O'Brien / tba


115 - AL'S GAL (115 – 108t – 113t) / M Maker / tba


115 - NUOVO RECORD (? - ? - ?) / M Saito / tba


…? - KITCAT (? - ? - 108+) / J Silva / G Ulloa Perez


114 - SENTIERO ITALIA (103+ 111 – 113) / K McLaughlin / J Rosario


114 - SPECTRE 3yo (110 – 112 – 114) M Munch / tba


112 - AVENGE (108 – 111 – 112t ) / R Mandella / tba


112 - ZIPESSA (111 – 112 – 110t) / M Stidham / tba


112 - QUEEN'S TRUST 3yo (112 – 110 – 110) / M Stoute / tba


111 - PRETTY PERFECT 3yo (103 – 111 – 108) / A P O'Brien / tba


…? - RYANS CHARM / P Gallagher / tba


Winner 2015: Stepahnie's Kitten / Globeform 118

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF (G1)

Santa Anita 4 Nov 2016 - 9 fur dirt


Horses presented with best Globeform, name,

GF ratings last three runs (l-to-r), trainer, rider


Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 2lbs over this distance.

128p - SONGBIRD 3yo (128p – 126+ - 128p) / J Hollendorfer / M Smith


124 - STELLAR WIND (112+ 120 – 124) / J Sadler / V Espinoza


124 - BEHOLDER (121 – 116 – 123) / R Mandella / G Stevens (Photo: Benoit)


120 - CURALINA (116 – 120 – 117) / T Pletcher


117 - FOREVER UNBRIDLED (117 – 114 – 117) / D Stewart


117 - I'M A CHATTERBOX (114 – 115 – 117) / L Jones


…? - CORONA DEL INCA (? - 0 - ?p) / G Frenkel-Santilan / tba

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT (G1)

Santa Anita 5 Nov 2016 - 6 fur dirt


Horses presented with best Globeform, name,

GF ratings last three runs (l-to-r), trainer, rider


Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 3lbs over this distance.

128 - LORD NELSON (119p – 128 – 120+) / B Baffert / tba


127 - MASOCHISTIC (0 / 126 – 127) / R Ellis / M Smith


126 - A. P. INDIAN (121p – 126 – 125) / A Delacour / J Bravo


121p - DREFONG 3yo (?p – 118p – 121p) / B Baffert / M Garcia


120 - LIMOUSINE LIBERAL (105 – 105+ - 120) / B Colebrook / tba


119 - DELTA BLUESMAN (119 - 106 - ?) / J Navarro / E Jaramillo


116 - NOHOLDINGBACK BEAR 3yo (? - 112+ - 116) / M P De Paulo


114p - MIND YOUR BISCUITS 3yo (111p – 114 - 114p) / R N Falcone Jr


Winner 2015: Runhappy / Globeform 127

Globeform ratings / codes


p = performance rated with a “plus”, improvement expected


+ = likely to progress off this run, and has shown better previously


t = “trip”, i.e. favoured by trip (normally soft lead)


c = “compromised” (normally by slow pace scenario)


? = rating with “?” attached, indicates uncertain / unreliable form

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS CUP DIRT MILE (G1)

Santa Anita 4 Nov 2016 – 1 mile dirt


Horses presented with best Globeform, name,

GF ratings last three runs (l-to-r), trainer, rider


Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 2lbs over this distance.

127 - RUNHAPPY 127 – 127 / - 106) / L Wohlers / G Stevens


121 - DORTMUND (121 / 119 – 116 - 118) / B Baffert / M Garcia / (Photo above: Benoit Photos)


118 - TAMARKUZ (0 – 114+ - 114) / K McLaughlin / M Smith


117 - GUN RUNNER 3yo (112 – 104 – 105 - 117) / S Asmussen / F Geroux


116 - VYJACK (111 – 110 – 116) / P D'Amato / F Prat


116 - MIDNIGHT STORM (115 – 116 – 116) P D'Amato / Mile more likely


112 - TOM'S READY (111 – 100 – 112) / D Stewart / tba


111p - TEXAS CHROME 3yo (111 – 111 – 111p) / J Caldwell / tba


110 - POINT PIPER (100 – 110 – 102) / J Hollendorfer / tba


101 - ACCELERATE 3yo (?p – 101 – 101) / J Sadler / tba

Winner 2015: Liam's Map / Globeform 125p

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP TURF (G1)

Santa Anita 5 Nov 2016 - 1 ½ miles Turf


Horses presented with best Globeform, name,

GF ratings last three runs (l-to-r), trainer / rider


Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 1.5lbs over this distance.

123 - FLINTSHIRE (117+c - 123 – 113+c) / C Brown / J Castellano / Photo: NYRA


120 - FOUND filly (120 - 120 - 118) A P O'Brien / R Moore


122 - ECTOT (105+ 107+ 122t) / T Pletcher / tba


121 - HIGHLAND REEL (117 – 114 – 120) / A P O'Brien / J Heffernan


116 - MONDIALISTE (112 – 114 – 114) D O'Meara / D Tudhope


116 - TWILIGHT ECLIPSE (108+c - 113 – 110) / T Albertrani / tba


115p - ULYSSES 3yo (0 – 110p – 115p) Sir M Stoute /


115 - DA BIG HOSS (115 – 115 – 114) / M Maker / tba


111 - PRETTY PERFECT 3yo filly (103 – 111 – 108) / A P O'Brien / tba


113 - ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR (111 – 113T – 112) P Eurton / tba


111 - MONEY MULTIPLIER (111 – 111 – 108) / C Brown / tba


109 - METABOSS (109 – 107+ 106) P D'Amato / tba


107 - TEXAS RYANO (103 – 104 – 107) / C Gaines / tba


107 - RALIS (107 – 104 – 105) / D O'Neill / tba



Fillies and mares; 3lbs sex allowance – add three pounds

to their Globeform ratings for direct comparison with males.

Goldikova (below), historic three-time winner of the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Photo: Stefano Grasso

GLOBEFORM RATINGS

BREEDERS' CUP MILE (G1)

Santa Anita 5 Nov 2016 - 1 mile Turf


Horses presented with best Globeform, name,

GF ratings last three runs (l-to-r), trainer / rider


Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.

One length = 2lbs over this distance.

123 - TEPIN mare (118 – 115+ - 114) / M Casse / J Leparoux


120 - PHOTO CALL filly (101 – 106 – 120t) / T Pletcher / K Desormeaux


118 - ALICE SPRINGS 3yo filly (96 – 118 – 116) / A P O'Brien / R Moore


119 - LIMATO (120 – 117 – 119) / H Candy / H Bentley


115 - MISS TEMPLE CITY filly (115 – 110 – 115) / G Motion / tba


117p - IRONICUS (117 – 117p – 117p) / Shug McGaughey


117 - DUTCH CONNECTION (117 – 112+ – 105) / C Hills / tba


114 - SPECTRE 3yo filly (110 – 112 – 114) M Munch / tba


116 - MIDNIGHT STORM (115 – 116 – 116) / P D'Amato / tba


116 - TOURIST (114 – 116t – 116) / B Mott / tba


116 - WHAT A VIEW (116t – 111+ - 111) / K D Black / tba


115 - COUGAR MOUNTAIN (107 – 115t – 110) A P O'Brien / tba


114 - RING WEEKEND (107 – 114 – 113) / G Motion / tba


112 - KARAR (108 – 110 – 112) F-H Graffard /


Fillies and mares; 3lbs sex allowance – add three pounds

to their Globeform ratings for direct comparison with males.


Winner 2015: Tepin / Globeform 118p

Globeform ratings / codes

p = performance rated with a “plus”, improvement expected


+ = likely to progress off this run, and has shown better previously


t = “trip”, i.e. favoured by trip (normally soft lead)


c = “compromised” (normally by slow pace scenario)


? = rating with “?” attached, indicates uncertain / unreliable form

Breeders' Cup Classic contender California Chrome after his Kentucky Derby win

Photo: Reed Palmer

THESE WILL PAY

MORE AT SANTA ANITA

Whichever horse you fancy, make sure you get the best odds – and betting on the Breeders' Cup really does offer us the luxury of shopping around for value odds. If you are in a position to bet with the bookmakers don't just look at their odds, by the way. Always, always pay attention to the US Tote board – especially on big days like these. And don't take bookie odds about any of these contenders, as they are all sure to pay more at Santa Anita.

RODAINI (16-1 Juvenile Turf). With Good Samaritan, Oscar Performance, Lancaster Bomber, Intelligence Cross and – to a certain extent – also Keep Quiet and Made You Look all set to take plenty of action at the windows, Simon Crisford's first Breeders' Cup starter will probably go off at 20-1 plus here. Sure, the well informed racing fans all know that Crisford was Godolphin's brain when they did so much better than they do these days, but to the man in the street he will be 'Simon Who'. Not without a chance, Rodaini could well go off at a huge price. Unless, of course, Dettori's fan club wades in.

LIMATO (3-1 Mile). This is a crazy price. Some bookmakers even make him the favourite. Whether that makes any sense is open to debate. What is hardly debatable, on the other hand, is the fact that Tepin will be favourite as the gates open for the Mile, a race she won last year. She has gained international star status since, through winning at Royal Ascot and Woodbine. So Limato, representing Breeders' Cup newcomers Henry Candy and Harry Bentley, will not be anywhere near 3-1 in the US pool. Ironicus took a significant amount of money when an unlucky loser against Miss Temple City at Keeneland, and he will probably be backed by professionals once again. Alice Springs / Aidan O'Brien / Ryan Moore is also a combination many horseplayers will like. So no, Limato, smart as he is, will not go off at such cramped odds at Santa Anita. Something like 5-1 or 6-1 seems more plausible.

DUTCH CONNECTION (25-1 Mile). This Mile contender really has the profile of an 'any-price-you-like' runner in the Mile. He probably won't be even mentioned in tipsters' previews and 50-1 wouldn't be a big surprise.

ULYSSES (12-1 Turf). Sir Michael Stoue is a man all US players know and respect, but Ulysses is coming off defeat in lesser company – and he is virtually unknown. Flintshire, Highland Reel, Ectot, as well as Erupt and Mondialiste, seem likely to take more money. Ulysses looks more like a 20-1 plus shot here. Not that he should be dismissed, at least not by Trifecta players.

QUEEN'S TRUST (8-1 Filly & Mare Turf). From the same stable as Ulysses, Queen's Trust also takes a relatively low profile to the fight. The Filly & Mare Turf betting will probably be dominated by Lady Eli – who is sure to get tons of positive publicity leading up the big day – and Aidan O'Brien's classic winner Seventh Heaven (who has beaten Found in Europe). Sea Calisi will very popular with US players wanting to bet against the top two. It's thus hard to see how Queen's Trust can go off at as short odds as 8-1.

LIMOUSINE LIBERAL (16-1 Sprint). He ran the race of his life last time out but win machine A. P. Indian, Bob Baffert's duo Lord Nelson and Drefong, plus local speed merchant Masochistic will all be so much more backed than Limousine Liberal, who realistically is a 20-1 plus horse here.

VALUE BET ALERT, OCT 29

GOOD SAMARITAN has just been confirmed for the B CUP JUVENILE TURF 11-1


A seriously impressive winner of the Summer Stakes at Woodbine (form has been franked since) after winning the best juvenile turf maiden race at the Saratoga meet, he must be backed at 11-1 .


He was also under consideration for the Juvenile, but his owners have THEORY a live contender for that event. This is a copy of email alert. GS

VALUE BET ALERT

THEORY 16-1

B CUP JUVENILE

Oct 15:

THEORY (NYRA pic), the most impressive maiden winner at the Saratoga meet impressed again with a solid win in the Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park . The Breeders' Cup Juvenile should be his next target. www.williamhill.com offer 16-1. Way too big.


DRF (with video);

http://www.drf.com/news/theory-proves-himself-winning-futurity

33-1... 10-1... 10-1...

Oct 10: Most bookmakers have future odds for the Breeders' Cup races – which is good news, as there are some great value prices on these lists. Four names stand out at this stage. Their prices are quite simply too big.

BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF

BIG SCORE 10-1 (previously advised at 18-1); shuffled too far back early, Big Score came up short by a length against Bowies Hero in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf in September - but he hit back in no uncertain manner when they met again in the Zuma Beach Stakes over a mile at Santa Anita on October 10. The Tim Yakteen trained colt, again ridden by Flavian Prat, was closer to the pace this time, and he simply exploded at the top of the lane - to run away for an impressive 3 1/4-length win.

His time was 1.33.5, about eight lengths faster than Miss Southern Miss's time in the Surfer Girl Stakes on the same day. This despite the fact that the latter race had a quicker first quarter. Big Score, who had been an easy debut winner at Del Mar in July, looked value for more than the bare margin in the Zuma Beach, where he was followed home by Sonic Boom (5-length maiden winner at Kentucky Downs), Ventry Bay (runner-up at Saratoga on only previous start) and the English trainer Harbour Master (maiden and nursery hcap winner at Lingfield and Sandown). Bowies Hero finished eighth.


Big Score will stay 1 1/16 miles, he is proven over the Santa Anita turf course, and he is a progressive type. 18-1 about this contender is way too big.

BREEDERS' CUP DIRT MILE

TAMARKUZ 33-1 (previously advised at 50-1); a top miler on dirt in Dubai, Tamarkuz has yet to produce his best in the US, but he is coming off two very encouraging runs in defeat, and appears to be on his way back. He stayed on strongly to take second behind one of the world's best sprinters, A. P. Indian, in the 7-furlong Forego Stakes at Saratoga, and he was a clear second as Anchor Down beat him by 2 lengths in the Kelso over a mile at Belmont Park. Anchor Down may bypass the Breeders' Cup and go for the Cigar Mile, but Tamarkuz is an intended runner at Santa Anita. Capable of GF 118, this son of BC Sprint champion Speightstown looks super each-way value at 50-1. Yes, he lost the final prep, but many a Breeders' Cup winner did just that. He may be a notch sharper on November 4.His toughest rival will probably be Baffert's battle hardened DORTMUND (previously advised at 5-1).

BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE

THEORY 10-1 (previously advised at 16-1); impressive winner of the Futurity Stakes at Belmont Park on Oct 15, having won a key maiden at Saratoga on his debut, Theory is one of the best juveniles around at the minute. The way he won the Futurity, pulling 3 1/2 lengths clear of the runner-up, Star Empire, suggested that he wants further than the 6 furlongs he covered that day. He is sure to improve again - and let's hope he goes for the Juvenile (his connections seem keen to let him run at Santa Anita).

A late foal by Gemologist, Theory is out of Gem Sleuth (daughter of Champagne Stakes winner Officer). She has also produced 5-time winner Roman Officer (Roman Ruler), who was effective from 6 to 8 furlongs. Gem Sleuth won 3 races and was placed third in the G3 Winning Colors over 6 furlongsat Churchill Downs. Theory cost $335,000 at the Ocala April '16 sales.

BREEDERS' CUP TURF

ECTOT 10-1; this ex-French runner upset heavy favorite FLINTSHIRE when winning the Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont Park on October 1. Making his third start for Todd Pletcher, Ectot led every step of the way and won by 5 lengths. Of course, you can say that he 'stole' the four-runner race on soft ground (something that Flintshire hates), but people seem to overlook a couple of important factors here. This win wasn't such a fluke many will have it. Firstly, Ectot did set an honest pace (and he was actually the one of the four who was racing a bit too freely). Secondly, how can we crab a five-length winner. It was a tactical win, and a brilliant ride by Jose Ortiz, but it was by no means 'lucky'. Ectot quickened really well coming into the straight, he ran on with impressive zest to outclass his rivals – and even idled a bit close home. Don't forget that this 6-year-old had high class form in France. He had Secretariat & Cox Plate winner Adelaide 1 ½ lengths behind him when impressing on good ground in the Prix Niel in 2014, when Ectot also beat BC Mile winner Karakontie to land the Prix de Fontainebleau. He was a Group 1 winner at two, and how Ectot is 10-1 for the BC Turf is hard to understand. Not least since Flintshire is no better than 3-1.

BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT

MASOCHISTIC 10-1; the Sprint will be an incredible race this year. A whole bunch of top class speed merchants are set to meet, with four or five in with a winning chance – so placing a future bet on the race may seem folly. After all, post positions, track conditions etc will be vital in a deep contest like this – but Masochistic is just too tempting at 10-1. The Ron Ellis trainee returned to action with a deeply impressive allowance win over 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita in July. His margin over Heir of Storm was 6 ¼ lengths but he was shut right down in the closing stages and looked value for about ten lengths.

He went for the 7-furlong Pat O'Brien Stakes the following month, and crushed his two rivals, Vyjack and Indexical. On paper, it may seem like 'nothing special'. In reality, it was quite special. Masochistic, spotting Vyjack 2lbs, ran a very, very strong race. That his runner-up set a track record winning the City Of Hope Stakes on turf next time out does not exactly tarnish the form. Indexical was coming off a second to LORD NELSON in the Bing Crosby, by the way, and Masochistic's Pat O'Brien performance was of the highest order. He comes relatively fresh to the Breeders' Cup and must have a big chance.

Posted Oct 10, 2016

BREEDERS CUP

SANTA ANITA NOV 4-5

Races with 2015 winners and

Globeform ratings achieved in the races


FRIDAY

Juvenile Turf / Hit It A Bomb / GF 112p

Dirt Mile / Liam's Map / GF 125p

Juv Fillies Turf / Catch a Glimpse / GF 112pt

Distaff / Stopchargingmaria / GF 119


SATURDAY

Juvenile Fillies / Songbird / GF 123p

Turf Sprint / Mongolian Saturday / GF 116

Filly & Mare Sprint / Wavell Avenue / GF 119

Filly & Mare Turf / Stephanie's Kitten / GF 118

Sprint / Runhappy / GF 127

Mile / Tepin / GF 118p

Juvenile / Nyquist / GF 118p

Turf / Found / GF 118

Classic / American Pharoah / GF 134t (video)