1,000 Guineas: Wide open, but 33-1 bets are tempting
by Geir Stabell (firstname.lastname@example.org) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Published: 2013-05-03 13:20:32
The first fillies' classic in England looks wide open on paper, as formlines from the host nation, Ireland and France are brought together in what promises to be a fascinating contest. All the principals are drawn high, closest to the stands, and traffic problems may easily become a factor. Deciding how to play, indeed whether to play at all, is not easy.
Two or three bets make some sense, however, and since we have a 33-1 bet in the mix, not just that; two bets at massive odds look tempting, play we will.
MOTH is the narrow selection. This lightly raced Ballydoyle filly was visually so impressive when winning her maiden in Ireland four weeks ago, when she was absolutely cantering all over her rivals through the last quarter mile. Her form was given an excellent boost when the fourth pkaced filly in that contest came back and won by 7 lengths on her next start. Moth seems to be a bit special, and it is easy to see why Aidan O'Brien decided to supplement her for the Guineas. She was recommended on these pages when still 10-1 but is still available at 6-1, a price that makes her an each-way-bet.
Bred to be an Oaks filly, she did show enough speed to suggest that she will be competitive over the stiff mile here at Newmarket. Stan James offer 33-1 about Moth winning both classics, and it is well worth taking.
AGENT ALLISON (see previous value play article) can still be backed at 25-1 for the 1,000 Guineas and, based on the theory that she can improve off her seasonal debut at Newbury (when dull in her coat and not quite fit), that is too big. Each-Way bet recommended, plus a reversed Exacta on these two fillies.
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