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Humana Distaff: Looking for a longshot?
by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2013-05-04 04:28:41 (First published: 2013-05-03 08:59:53 )




Churchill Downs Saturday: Perhaps it is the the most tricky of all Grade One contests this weekend. The 7-furlong Humana Distaff (G1) has nine runners. That figure does not cause the headache, but the pace scenario might. A longshot could easily pop up in this race.



GLOBEFORM RATINGS
THE HUMANA DISTAFF (G1)

Churchill Downs 4 May 2013 7 furlongs

Runners presented with best Globeform ratings & jockeys

Top ranked horse on 100, with others ranked down in pounds.
One length equals two pounds over this distance.
Best Globeform rating after name of sire.



100 - AUBBY K (Street Sense) GF 117p / E Prado
..97 - RUMOR (Indian Charlie) GF 114 / M Smith
..96 - BYRAMA (Byron) GF 111 / J Rosario
..96 - EMMA'S ENCORE (Congrats) GF 111 / J S Rocco Jr
..94 - JAMAICAN SMOKE (Latent Heat) GF 109 / J Leparoux
..93 - SAME CROSS (Proud Citizen) GF 108p / R Napravnik
..91 - BURBAN (Speightstown) GF 106 / J Lezcano
? - HOLIDAY SOIRE (Harlan's Holiday) GF ? / J Castellano
? - THERE IS NO LIMIT (Johannesburg) GF ? / K Krigger


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

AUBBY K
produced a classy performance last time out, when making a winning seasonal debut in the Inside Information (G2) over this distance at Gulfstream Park in March (raced in the first two all the way to beat Spectacular Sky easily by 3 lengths, as Emma's Encore finished third). A repeat of that form would make her a winner again this weekend, but she has to compete with a some early speed, likely from Jamaican Smoke and Burban, and perhaps one should look elsewhere in this contest.

RUMOR is also coming off a nice win. She finished well to land the 6.5-furlong Las Flores (G3) at Santa Anita in March, beating Teddy's Promise (who was conceding 5lb) by half a length. Rumor has finished in the first three in 11 of her 14 races and she is very game and consistent. She is also, however, a lady who needs breaks between her races, and how she will perform on her first start outside California is hard to say.

SAME CROSS makes plenty of appeal as a value play. This lightly raced daughter of Proud Citizen, trained by Larry Jones, looked a classy performer in the making on all of her first three starts; winning them with good progression. She was beaten last time out but that was over 5.5 furlongs on turf and she has always looked like a 7- to 8-furlong runner. Her best race was over six on dirt. Having done all her racing at the Fair Grounds, she may be just the type to come with a good run from the back in a strongly run race (which this probably will be). Her trainer has an excellent record with layoff runners, as well as with sprinters and stakes runners for that matter.

If Same Cross moved forward by three to four lengths (quite possible) and the early pace causes a meltdown on the front end as they come down the long stretch (quite possible), she has a chance and 8-1 is a good price.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 3 SAME CROSS
B: 2 RUMOR, 6 AUBBY K

RECOMMENDED BETS


Win: 3 Same Cross

6 Exactas: 2, 3, 6 boxed / combined








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