Humana Distaff: Looking for a longshot?
by Handicappers (firstname.lastname@example.org) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2013-05-04 04:28:41 (First published: 2013-05-03 08:59:53 )
Churchill Downs Saturday: Perhaps it is the the most tricky of all Grade One contests this weekend. The 7-furlong Humana Distaff (G1) has nine runners. That figure does not cause the headache, but the pace scenario might. A longshot could easily pop up in this race.
THE HUMANA DISTAFF (G1)
Churchill Downs 4 May 2013 – 7 furlongs
Runners presented with best Globeform ratings & jockeys
Top ranked horse on 100, with others ranked down in pounds.
One length equals two pounds over this distance.
Best Globeform rating after name of sire.
100 - AUBBY K (Street Sense) GF 117p / E Prado
..97 - RUMOR (Indian Charlie) GF 114 / M Smith
..96 - BYRAMA (Byron) GF 111 / J Rosario
..96 - EMMA'S ENCORE (Congrats) GF 111 / J S Rocco Jr
..94 - JAMAICAN SMOKE (Latent Heat) GF 109 / J Leparoux
..93 - SAME CROSS (Proud Citizen) GF 108p / R Napravnik
..91 - BURBAN (Speightstown) GF 106 / J Lezcano
…? - HOLIDAY SOIRE (Harlan's Holiday) GF ? / J Castellano
…? - THERE IS NO LIMIT (Johannesburg) GF ? / K Krigger
AUBBY K produced a classy performance last time out, when making a winning seasonal debut in the Inside Information (G2) over this distance at Gulfstream Park in March (raced in the first two all the way to beat Spectacular Sky easily by 3 lengths, as Emma's Encore finished third). A repeat of that form would make her a winner again this weekend, but she has to compete with a some early speed, likely from Jamaican Smoke and Burban, and perhaps one should look elsewhere in this contest.
RUMOR is also coming off a nice win. She finished well to land the 6.5-furlong Las Flores (G3) at Santa Anita in March, beating Teddy's Promise (who was conceding 5lb) by half a length. Rumor has finished in the first three in 11 of her 14 races and she is very game and consistent. She is also, however, a lady who needs breaks between her races, and how she will perform on her first start outside California is hard to say.
SAME CROSS makes plenty of appeal as a value play. This lightly raced daughter of Proud Citizen, trained by Larry Jones, looked a classy performer in the making on all of her first three starts; winning them with good progression. She was beaten last time out but that was over 5.5 furlongs on turf and she has always looked like a 7- to 8-furlong runner. Her best race was over six on dirt. Having done all her racing at the Fair Grounds, she may be just the type to come with a good run from the back in a strongly run race (which this probably will be). Her trainer has an excellent record with layoff runners, as well as with sprinters – and stakes runners for that matter.
If Same Cross moved forward by three to four lengths (quite possible) and the early pace causes a meltdown on the front end as they come down the long stretch (quite possible), she has a chance – and 8-1 is a good price.
A: 3 SAME CROSS
B: 2 RUMOR, 6 AUBBY K
Win: 3 Same Cross
6 Exactas: 2, 3, 6 boxed / combined
|Copyright (c) Globeform, 2001-2012|