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Qipco 2000 Guineas: Dawn Approach vs Toronado
by Geir Stabell (geir.stabell@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2013-05-03 05:15:53 (First published: 2013-04-30 05:58:16 )


Newmarket: An unbeaten record is set to end in the big race at 'HQ' of horseracing on Saturday, but which one's will it be?

Dawn Approach, a perfect six-for-six in his juvenile sedason and Guineas favourite throughout the winter, will be making his seasonal debut. Some say he is brilliant, some say those he beat at two may not have been up to all that much. Now comes the test, as impressive Craven winner Toronado sits in the opposite corner. Also yet to experience defeat, he won his three races last year and he looked both very fit and classy when winning over this course two weeks ago.

Others to consider? As Always in these early season classics, the answer is 'yes' and the most likely names to join in the battle are the once raced Mars, his Breeders' Cup winning stable companion George Vancouver easy Free Handicap winner Garswood and possibly also Van Der Neer, like Toronado trained by Richard Hannon - arguably the handler who has enjoyed the best start to this season.


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
QIPCO 2,000 GUINEAS (G1)

Newmarket 4 May 2013 1 mile turf (straight)

Projected runners presented with best Globeform rating, sire, trainer / jockey

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals two pounds over this distance


119p - DAWN APPROACH (New Approach) Jim Bolger / Kevin Manning
118p - TORONADO (High Chaparral) Richard Hannon / Richard Hughes
114 - GEORGE VANCOUVER (Hentrythenavigator) Aidan O'Brien/ Colm O'Donoghue
114 - MOOHAAJIM (Cape Cross) Marco Botti / Adam Kirby
113p - VAN DER NEER (Dutch Art) Richard Hannon / William Buick
113 - LEITIR MOR (Holy Roman Emperor) Jim Bolger / tba
110 - CRISTOFORO COLOMBO (Henrythenavigator) Aidan O'Brien / Joseph O'Brien
109p - GARSWOOD (Dutch Art) Richard Fahey / Tony Hamilton
103 - DONT BOTHER ME (Dark Angel) Niall Moran / Martin Harley
..96P - MARS (Galileo) Aidan O'Brien / J A Heffernan
..94p - KYLLACHY RISE (Kyllachy) Sir Henry Cecil / Tom Queally
..90p - CORRESPONDENT (Exceed and Excel) Brian Meehan / Paul Hanagan
..90 - GLORY AWAITS (Choisir) Kevin Ryan / Jamie Spencer

GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

TORONADO
gets the nod. Dawn Approach may have been the champion last year but Richard Hannon's main contender is coming off an impressive win over course and distance and he is more likely to improve. He was unbeaten in three starts as a juvenile, when his most important win came as he defeated Dundonnell in the Champagne Stakes (G2) at Doncaster. Seven months later they met again, in the one-mile Craven Stakes (G3), traditionally an important prep for the Guineas. Only four went to post, as Toronado was joined by stable companion Havana Gold, a winner of four races in 2012, and Godolphin relied on G3 winner Tawhid. The story of the race can be told quite briefly; Toronado went straight into the lead and ran right away from his rivals clocking a harp time though the last two furlongs. He was very fit, nice and bright in the paddock and cantered down well. He came back up even better and won easily by 4 lengths. There was a strong diagonal to tail wind so times may have been misleading but compared to other races on the day his time was very good. Hand timed from a reliable point he completed the last furlong and a half about 1.7 seconds (8 1/2 lengths) faster than Mull Of Killough in the 9-furlong Earl Of Sefton (a race with a slow early pace). Offers of 4-1 about Toronado for the Guineas appeared generous, and they only lasted a couple of days and he is now best priced at 5-2.

Take that price if you like him, as he is liekly to contract even more leading up to the big race. In fact, Toronado might even challenge Dawn Approach for favouritism.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 12 TORONADO
B: 3 DAWN APPROACH

RECOMMENDED BETS


Win: 12 Toronado (5-2)

'Without Dawn Approach'@ Toronado 11-10 (Paddy Power)

Exacta: 12 to beat 3

ANTE POST SPECIAL: 40-1 MARS to win the 2,000 Guineas and Derby (William Hill).

Mars is a once raced maiden winner from Aidan O'Brien's team and very much the 'dark horse' in this Guineas field. Bred more to be a Derby horse he may find the mile a bit sharp, but 40-1 still is too big a price. He is one who could spring a surprise on Saturday and if he does he will immediately become the new Derby favourite.






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