Globeform Ratings: Kentucky Derby contenders
by Geir Stabell (firstname.lastname@example.org) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2013-04-29 02:09:05 (First published: 2013-04-26 16:16:06 )
Just a matter of days now, and it will finally be upon us, Kentucky Derby day 2013. The probable field is almost clear, and we are here listing 18 projected contenders, with their best Globeform ratings.
KENTUCKY DERBY (G1)
Churchill Downs 4 May 2013 – 1 1/4 miles dirt
Projected runners presented with best Globeform ratings, sires, trainers
Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals two pounds over this distance
119p - ORB (Malibu Moon) Shug McGaughey
Uncomplicated, game runner with stamina and a high rating – he won the Florida Derby quite easily, he will appreciate another step up in distance, he is likely to improve again and he holds a big chance
118p - VERRAZANO (More Than Ready) Todd Pletcher
Has looked the class act all along and is still my favourite, though stamina is a question, interestingly my highest rating for this colt came in his allowance win. That may be a 'provisional' rating but if it's correct, well, then we are dealing with a true star here.
118 - GOLDENCENTS (Into Mischief) Doug O'Neill
Speedy Californian coming off big win in Santa Anita Derby, but I have my doubts about him staying 1 1/4 miles at Churchill. Then again, there may not be all that much pace in the mix and you have to respect his class.
117 - ITSMYLUCKYDAY (Lawyer Ron) Edward Plesa Jr
He was very fit early in the year and made the most of that advantage, but do not forget this contender – he's tough and his prep run behind Orb in the Florida Derby was good. I have a feeling he will be too big in the betting at Churchill.
114p - NORMANDY INVASION (Tapit) Chad Brown
Caught the eye as a potential Derby horse when unlucky second in last year's Remsen, and even more so when staying on to fill the same place behind Verrazano in the Wood. Should improve again. Lots to like about this one.
114p - OVERANALYZE (Dixie Union) Todd Pletcher
It was a shame that War Academy was pulled up in the Arkansas Derby, as he probably would have given us a much better marker on the race that what we have now – Overnalyze won it really well, was staying on at the end and suddenly jumped back into the picture.
114p - VYJACK (Into Mischief) Rudy Rodriguez
Perhaps the Wood was not run quite to suit him, as his best previous race came when he closed fast from well off the pace, but the same can be said for Normandy Invasion, who outstayed him late to take second and Vyjack needs to improve to figure.
113p - JAVA'S WAR (War Pass) Kenneth McPeek
This looks an ideal horse for the Belmont, as he has so much stamina. Visually impressive winner of the Blue Grass at Keeneland, he actually produced a better Globeform rating when finishing fast for second behind Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby one start prior. Hard not to like him but will he get the strong pace he needs on May 4?
112p - REVOLUTIONARY (War Pass) Todd Pletcher
This imposing colt is very had to assess, simply because he has been prepping in lesser company than most of the other principals, but he has twice overcome trouble in running that horses are not supposed to overcome. Was that because he is so good or because those behind him were so moderate? Calvin Borel is a big plus. I fear this combo.
110 - WILL TAKE CHARGE (Unbridled's Song) D Wayne Lukas
May be the best of the Lukas runners but fully exposed and, from what we have seen so far, that is not good enough.
110 - OXBOW (Awesome Again) D Wayne Lukas
On the same rating as barnmate Will Take Charge but form took a dip last time out.
110 - MYLUTE (Midnight Lute) Thomas Amoss
Superfecta players ought to include this one, at least in third / fourth spot, as he is the type who can stay on past tired horses in the straight. How good is he? Tough call. But for his 10 3/4-length win over General Election in December I would seriously question his GF 110 in the La Derby. Let's see it again.
109 - FALLING SKY (Lion Heart) J P Terranova II
Went gate to wire to win the 8.5-furlong Sam Davis in early February and has been readily beaten by leading contenders Verrazano and Overanalyze since.
108p - LINES OF BATTLE (War Front) Aidan O'Brien
Beat a soft bunch in the UAE Derby and nowhere near the best colts at Ballydoyle. O'Brien has also said he might go to the Guineas at Newmarket instead but Betfair odds of 320 indicates that he will not run there either. Will he run anywhere at all this weekend?
108 - PALACE MALICE (Curlin) Todd Pletcher
They said he worked impressively early on this year, but if he did he has yet to transfer it to racing action. His last run was his best though and he could be on the upgrade. Stamina is a worry.
107 - CHARMING KITTEN (Kitten's Joy) Todd Pletcher
Connections never duck a challenge and have had a great season so far but this will be tough.
106p - GOVENOR CHARLIE (Midnight Lute) Bob Baffert
Easy winner of the Sunland Derby, from Show Some Magic (second in the Mine That Bird Derby on his previous start) and a nice sort with 2 wins from 3 starts. Should improve, and he certainly has to, but trainer states his next start will more likely come in the Preakness.
103 - BLACK ONYX (Rock Hard Ten) Kelly Breen
Spiral winner flying considerably higher here. A formline via the Spiral third, Giant Finish, and General Election says that he is below Govenor Charlie, and he is pretty exposed too.
109 - TIZ A MINISTER (Ministers Wild Cat) Paul Aguirre
Seems doubtful now, after losing just a week out. Stamina is his forte.
101p - GOLDEN SOUL (Perfect Soul) Dallas Stewart
On the verge of getting into the field, this stayer has a low rating but also a “p” (=plus)and his relentless stamina makes him interesting for Trifecta and not least Superfecta players. Reminds me a little of Summer Bird, Belmont winner 2009, after having run sixth at Churchill Downs.
20 horses will get into the field, please check back for updates
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