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GLOBEFORM'S
DUBAI WORLD CUP DAY PREVIEWS

by Geir Stabell (geir.stabell@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2012-04-04 04:18:39 (First published: 2012-03-30 05:55:27 )




BETTING PLANS - SEE BELOW DUBAI WORLD CUP PREVIEW.



MEYDAN, DUBAI, SATURDAY MARCH 31, 2012

Race 1


KAHAYLA CLASSIC (G1)


Purebred Arabians / 2000 metres / 10 furlongs Tapeta

GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

SERAPHIN DU PAON beat NIESHAN to land this prize twelve months ago and there is a good chance they will fill the first two places again. Though this time Nieshan may have the edge. He came out on top in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round III (G1), when TIMADIT AL MELS took second and SERAPHIN DU PAON had to settle for third. Nieshan went ahead 400 metres out and won by 2 lengths. He had won the Al Maktoum Challenge III also last year, and he beat Seraphin du Paon when they clashed in the HH President Of The UAE Cup (G1) over 2200 metres on turf at Abu Dhabi in February. Stamina came into play there, as Nieshan won by ¾ length. Seraphin du Paon also stays well. He won the 2011 Kahayla Classic from off the pace, when he got the upper hand in the closing stages to beat Nieshan by a length. Tactics could play a vital part on Saturday, as the rest of the field will be interested in slowing the pace down, to compromise the two favourites.

TM FRED TEXAS, representing Qatar, is an interesting contender. Purebred Arabian racing is strong in Qatar and he is one of their best runners. That he beat Gayth by as much as 5 lengths over 1200 metres at Doha last time out speaks volumes for his versatility, as he is best suited by 2000 metres. With 10 wins from 14 runs he makes a lot of appeal. TM Fred Texas could be the big danger if we see a slow early pace, so let's go for him to cause a minor upset on race one.


GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 13 TM FRED TEXAS
B: 1 NIESHAN – 6 SERAPHIN DO PAON
C: 12 TIMADIT AL MELS




Race 2


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
GODOLPHIN MILE (G2)

Meydan 31 March 2012 – 1600 metres / 8 furlongs Tapeta

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, trainer, rider.

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals 2lb over this distance


119 - AFRICAN STORY (Pivotal) S bin Suroor / F Dettori
116p - WESTERN ARISTOCRAT (Mr Greeley) J Noseda / R Moore
111 - FIRST CITY (Dikat) mare A Al Raihe / R Ffrench
115 - RED JAZZ (Johannesburg) C Hills / M Hills
115 - VISCOUNT NELSON (Giant's Causeway) M de Kock / K Shea
114 - DO IT ALL (Distorted Humor) S bin Suroor / S de Sousa
113 - SANDAGIYR (Dr Fong) S bin Suroor / M Barzalona
112 - DUX SCHOLAR (Oasis Dream) H Brown / G Schofield
112 - SHAMALGAN (Footstepsinthesand) X Nakkachdji / G Benoist
111 - DERBAAS (Seeking the Gold) A Al Raihe / R Hills
110 - RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop Kid) S Seemar / R Mullen
109 - SNAAFY (Kingmambo) M Al Muhairi / W Smith

First City: 2kg (4,4lb) sex weight allowance. Add 4,4lb to rating for direct comparison with the males

Red Jazz: Globeform 118 in 2010


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

AFRICAN STORY
is the obvious selection. He is unlucky not to have won his first three races this year and will he hard to beat on the Godolphin Mile. The ex-French runner prepped with a solid 4-length win over SNAAFY in the Burj Nahaar (G3) on Super Saturday, when he improved to Globeform 119. The race was run over the same trip as the Godolphin Mile. The son of Pivotal has been on an upward curve throughout the Carnival. After having carried top weight to victory in a handicap over 1400 metres on turf in January, he stepped up in class in the Firebreak Stakes (G3) over 1600 metres on the Tapeta surface last month; but was blocked twice at the finish before dashing late to take third, beaten only a quarter length by the winner, his stable companion Sandagiyr. Both these smart milers joined Godolphin from France this winter. Sandagiyr was a Listed winner for HH the Aga Khan in France, while African Story was placed in Group 3 events over 1400 and 1600 metres.

WESTERN ARISTOCRAT represents England but his biggest win to date came in New York, when he led all the way for a comfortable win in the Jamaica Handicap (G1) over 1800 metres at Belmont Park last year. He beat the favourite Brilliant Speed by a length, though was much the best and value for more than the bare margin indicates. Brilliant Speed had previously won a Grade 3 at Saratoga and he went on to run a good race for third to St Nicholas Abbey in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) in the autumn. Western Aristocrat himself also ran once more in 2011, and was a fine third behind Ultimate Eagle and Imagining in the Hollywood Derby (G1) in November. He came with a strong finish from the back that day, after his rider had held him up in order to save energy for the latter parts of the 10-furlong trip (2000 m.). That was probably a mistake, since it meant Ultimate Eagle enjoyed having things all his own way up front – just like Western Aristocrat did in New York. This Godolphin Mile contender has done most of his racing on turf course, but he did win also over the artificial track at Kempton in England last year and Tapeta should not inconvenience him. The distance also suits him well but what about the likely pace scenario? This event is often run at a fierce early pace – quite different to what he encountered when gaining his G1 win last year.

FIRST CITY, the only female in the lineup, has produced Globeform 111 a couple of times and she gets a weight allowance againt the boys, so theoretically she is in with a chance. This is her first start over the Tapeta surface.

RED JAZZ was third in this race last year, 3 ¾ lengths behind Skysurfers (who was in the same class as African Story), and he ran three game races in defeat againt top class milers in England, most notably when second to Strong Suit in the Lennox Stakes (G2) over 7 furlongs at Goodwood in July. He has not raced since, however, so is coming off a lengthy break here.

DO IT ALL made a favourable impression when returning to winning form in the Zabeel Mile (G2) over 1600 metres on the turf course in February. Jockey Silvestre de Sousa, who has signed up with Godolphin this year, rode an excellent race on the five-year-old. He sent him straight to the lead and set a sensible pace, keeping something up his sleeve for the finish, where Do It All responded well. This son of Distorted Humor won an allowance race over a mile at Del Mar in California last year, defeating the useful stakes performer (and favourite) Massone by ¾ length – this also after leading every step of the way. So we know what to expect when this guy breaks from the starting stalls.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 4 AFRICAN STORY
B: 8 WESTERN ARISTOCRAT
C: 9 RED JAZZ, 5 FIRST CITY, 11 DO IT ALL




Race 3


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
DUBAI GOLD CUP (G3)

Meydan 31 March 2012 – 3200 metres / 2 miles Turf

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, trainer, rider.

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals 1lb over this distance


119 - OPINION POLL (Halling) M Al Zarooni / F Dettori
116 - KASBAH BLISS (Kahyasi) F Doumen / G Mosse
115 - FOX HUNT (Dubawi) M Al Zarooni / S de Sousa
115 - JOSHUA TREE (Montjeu) M Botti / J Murtagh
114 - MIKHAIL GLINKA (Galileo) H Brown / G Scholfield
114 - MAKANI BISTY (Zenno Rob Roy) T Yahagi / F Komaki
111p - GRAND VENT (Schirocco) S bin Suroor / M Barzalona
112 - BARBICAN (Hurricane Run) A Bailey / R Moore
111 - ZANZAMAR (Fort Wood) M de Kock / R Hills
110 - UNUSUAL SUSPECT (Unusual Heat) M Kent / C Nakatani
108 - BRONZE CANNON (Lemon Drop Kid) H Brown / K Ulubaev
106 - AVERROES (Galileo) E Oertel / P Cosgrave
105 - IRISH FLAME (Dynasty) M de Kock / K Shea


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

OPINION POLL
raced nine times in 2011 and was only once worse than third. He was beaten twice by the Irish star Fame And Glory, and Opinion Poll himself won two prestigious races over 2 miles (3200 metres). He beat another horse representing the 'boys in blue', Lost In The Moment, by a head to win the Goodwood Cup (G2) in July. Three weeks later, he travelled to the big York meeting , to contest the Lonsdale Cup (G2). The competition was tougher and many also wondered how Opinion Poll would keep his form, after though races in the summer. Prior to his win at Goodwood, he had been second to Fame And Glory in the Gold Cup (G1) at Royal Ascot. These events had not dented his enthusiasm, however. As always, Opinion Poll looked an absolute picture in the paddock at York. Duncan, who went on to win a Group One on his next start, proved a stern rival but Opinion Poll held him by ¾ length. In the autumn, Opinion Poll had to settle for second twice, at Doncaster and Ascot (behind Fame And Glory), and he was runner-up on his seasonal debut at Meydan, when Fox Hunt beat him by 2 ½ lengths in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy (G3). Opinion Poll may have needed the run last time and he could well bounce back to winning form on World Cup night. Frankie Dettori has chosen him over Fox Hunt. He has probably chosen right.

FOX HUNT has managed something not many other stayers have, namely to beat Opinion Poll. He did so when they met in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy (G3) over 2800 metres at Meydan on March 1. Ridden by Dettori, he kicked for home some 400 metres from the winning post. Opinion Poll, partnered by Mikael Barzalona, was settled at the back of the field. He advanced easily to get into an attacking position but Fox Hunt had got first run on him and kept on well to score by 2 ½ lengths, while Opinion Poll took second. Can Fox Hunt come out best again? Of course it's possible but the longer trip favours Opinion Poll and the fact that Fox Hunt had already had a run this year prior to the Nad Al Sheba Trophy is also worth bearing in mind.

MIKHAIL GLINKA won the Queen's Vase (G3) over 2 miles, approximately 3200 metres, at Royal Ascot in England as a three-year-old, when trained by Aidan O'Brien. He has since joined Herman Brown, and also had spells with Gary Moore in England, and this son of top class stallion Galileo is interesting in the Gold Cup. He has come back to form at the right time, that's for sure, as he won the Dubai City Of Gold (G2) on Super Saturday. Mikhail Glinka went straight to the lead in the 2400-metres contest, and that's where he stayed, until passing the winning post a solid length ahead of Cavalryman. In top form, and being a proven stayer, he is likely to make an impact here.

KASBAH BLISS, now ten, has been a remarkable servant to the game over the years. Also effective over shorter distances, he is one of the best stayers in France. He won the 2011 recent edition of the Prix du Cadran (G1) at Longchamp, one of the most prestigious staying races in Europe. He was well beatan behind Fox Hunt in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy (G3) but don't for a moment believe his run there represents his true form. He will have improved and might be a big danger here.

JOSHUA TREE has been below form in three starts at Meydan this year but he is also capable of smart form, having finished second to Sarah Lynx in the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine last year.

GRAND VENT, ridden by Barzalona also when beaten just a nose in a G2 event in France last spring, is a potential improver who could spring a surprise.


GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 10 OPINION POLL
B: 11 FOX HUNT, 13 KASBAH BLISS
C: 8 MIKHAIL GLINKA, 9 GRAND VENT



Race 4


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
THE UAE DERBY (G2)

Meydan 31 March 2012 – 1800 metres / 9 furlongs Tapeta

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, trainer, rider.

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals 2lb over this distance


110p - WROTE (High Chaparral) A O'Brien / R Moore
111 - DADDY LONG LEGS (Scat Daddy) A O'Brien / C O'Donoghue
110? - HELMET (Exceed And Excel) P Snowden / K McEvoy
109 - RED DUKE (Hard Spun) J Quinn / T Queally
_?P - BALADA SALE (Not For Sale) P Bary / C-P Lemaire
107p - MICKDAAM (Dubawi) M de Kock / C Soumillon
105p - YANG TSE KIANG (Kahyasi) R Chotard / T Jarnet
104p - LUCKY CHAPPY (High Chaparral) G Motion / A Garcia
102 - FALLS OF LORA (Street Cry) filly M Al Zarooni / M Barzalona
105 - MARITIMER (Stormy Atlantic) H Bown / G Schofield
_?p - GENTEN (Bernardini) Y Yahagi / C Williams
105 - KINGLET (Kingmambo) M Al Zarooni / F Dettori
103 - BURANO (Dalakhani) B Meehan / K Fallon
103 - ENTIFAADHA (Dansili) W Haggas / R Hills

Falls Of Lora: 2kg / 4,4lb sex weight allowance – add 4,4lb to rating for comparison with males

Reserves

103 - MEHDI (Roman Emperor) B Meehan / tba
100 - SURFER (Distorted Humor) S Seemar / tba
_97p - CONTERGLOW (Echo Of Light) M Al Zarooni / tba


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

This may be
the most complicated race to solve, as we have horses from practically all corners of the world meeting up for the premier classic at Meydan. Aidan O'Brien sends two strong contenders from Ireland; the Breeders' Cup winner WROTE, and DADDY LONG LEGS, who dsappointed at the Breeders' Cup but beat Wrote when previously landing a G2 event in England. HELMET, now in the Godolphin silks after an excellent season in Australia, is another with a chance – though his most recent runs have been a bit below par. The North American runner LUCKY CHAPPY was beaten just a nose by a colt who won again in a subsequent stakes race, so his form looks interesting too, as does the form of French invader YANG TSE KIANG. He has had a run in France this year, scoring quite convincingly over a synthetic track at Chantilly. RED DUKE, representing England, is another with good claims; having won the Superlative Stakes (G2) and run respectably in G1 company at Newmarket last year. Then there is Mike de Kock's Al Bastakiya winner MICKDAAM and the South American filly BALADA SALE, whose form is hard to assess (she won a G1 at home by 11 lengths!).

Which one shall we go for? It seems as safe as can be in such an open race to side with Aidan O'Brien's two runners, with Wrote preferred over Daddy Long Legs.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 13 WROTE
B: 7 DADDY LONG LEGS
C: 8 YANG TSE KIANG, 14 HELMET



INTERESTING CONTENDERS

Ireland

WROTE


Last year, Ireland's top trainer Aidan O'Brien saw his colt Master Of Hounds lose the UAE Derby (G2) by just a head. Master Of Hounds (who is now with Mike de Kock) had been sixth in the Breeders' Cup Turf in America on his previous start. This year, O'Brien saddles Wrote for the UAE Derby. This colt also ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile – and he won the race. His chances in the Meydan classic are second to none. Wrote won two of his three starts in Ireland last summer, before being moved up in class in the Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) over a straight mile at Newmarket in England. He did well to take third behind his stable companion Daddy Long Legs. Six weeks later Wrote touched down in Kentucky, where he was to win the Juvenile Turf (G1) over a mile around two bends at Churchill Downs. His strong finish was far too good for his 13 rivals, as he beat Excaper by 2 ¼ lengths, with the English challenger Faaraaj a close third and Lucky Chappy fourth. Lucky Chappy is also aiming for glory in the UAE Derby. He was 3 ½ lengths behind Wrote at Churchill Downs but has improved since. Improvement can also be expected from Wrote, and he is the logical favourite.


USA

LUCKY CHAPPY


Lucky Chappy represents Team Valor International and trainer Graham Motion. This son of Derby and Breeders' Cup winner High Chaparral began his career in Italy, where he won two of his three races before being sent across the pond. He has had four runs Stateside without winning but in his Dubai prep, the El Camino Real Derby (G2) in California, Lucky Chappy was just a nose away from success. Daddy Nose Best lived up to his name that day, and beat Lucky Chappy in a very close finish, and it is worth noting that Daddy Nose Best won the Sunland Park Derby (G3) last weekend. The El Camino Real is run over about 1800 metres over a Tapeta track, and as such an ideal preparation for the UAE Derby over the same distance at Meydan.

Lucky Chappy's three previous races in the US were all on turf. He was second in the Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland last autumn, prior to a crack at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Churchill Downs, where he managed fourth behind Wrote. Lucky Chappy made his 3yo debut in the Kitten's Joy Stakes at Gulfstream Park in January, a month before the trip to Golden Gate Fields, and was a fast finishing second to his stable companion Howe Great (who beat the Group 1 winner Dullahan on his next start). Lucky Chappy is bred to stay at least 2000 metres, and that is also how he runs, normally delivering a strong run from off the pace. The UAE Derby is a contest that should suit him well.


France

YANG TSE KIANG


Representing France, Yang Tse Kiang got ready for his trip to Dubai in the best possible way, by winning his first race of the year at home. He took the Prix du Lieutenant over 1900 metres on the new Polytrack at Chantilly in early March, beating the odds-on favourite Orcus readily by 2 ½ lengths with the two others runners in the race well beaten. Yang Tse Kiang was much the best and this run confirmed the promise he had shown as a juvenile. The Prix du Lieutenant favourite Orcus had been second in two stakes races in 2011, when Yang Tse Kiang won once and finished a good second to Loi in the Prix de Conde (G3) over 1800 metres at Longchamp. Loi is reportedly being trained for the Derby Stakes (G1) in England this year so it is safe to say that Yang Tse Kai has been keeping smart company.



Globeform Rating codes

110p = improvement expected (moves up 2lb on ranking).
110P = significant improvement expeceted (moves up 5lb on ranking).
110t = enjoyed favorable trip when rating was achieved.
110d = form appears to be deteriorating.
110? = provisional, questionable or unreliable rating.




Race 5


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
THE AL QUOZ SPRINT (G1)

Meydan 31 March 2012 – 1000 metres / 5 furlongs Turf straight

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, trainer, rider.

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals 3lb over this distance


119 - SOLE POWER (Kyllachy) E Lynam / J Murtagh
119 - REGALLY READY (More Than Ready) S Asmussen / C Nakatani
114 - MARGOT DID (Exceed And Excel) filly M Bell / H Turner
118 - JOY AND FUN (Cullen) D Cruz / B Doyle
117 - WAR ARTIST (Orpen) M de Kock / K Shea
112 - ORTENSIA (Testa Rossa) mare P Messara / C Williams
111 - INVINCIBLE ASH (Invincible Spirit) mare M Halford / J Spencer
114 - NOCTURNAL AFFAIR (Victory Moon) D Marnane / R Moore
114 - PROHIBIT (Oasis Dream) R Cowell / J Crowley
114 - MONSIEUR JOE (Choisir) R Cowell / P Cosgrave
113 - BETTER BE THE ONE (More Than Ready) M Freedman / K Fallon
112 - ADDICTIVE DREAM (Kheylef) D Nicholls / A Nicholls
110 - EAGLE REGIMENT (El Moxie) K Man / O Doleuze
110 - SECRET ASSET (Clodovil) J Chapple-Hyam / G Baker
109 - AUGUST RUSH (Var) H Brown / G Scholfield
107 - A SHIN VIRGO (Falbrav) mare K Kozaki / Y Fukunga

Fillies & mares: 2kg (4.4lb) sex weight allowance. Add 4.4lb to ratings for direct comparison with males.


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

JOY AND FUN
, a very tough and experienced Hong Kong sprinter, won this race two years ago, when defeating Godolphin's Fravashi. California Flag, top turf sprinter in the US at the time, finished third. The evergreen nine-year-old has raced 13 times since, with another two wins to his name – the most recent in the Chairman's Prize (G1) over 1200 metres at Sha Tin in February. The race drew a field of twelve runners, with Lucky Nine a strong even money favourite. Joy And Fun managed to beat him by ¾ length, with Sunny King third. Lucky Nine advertised the form by landing the Queen's Silver Jubilee Cup (G1) a month later (when Sunny King was once more third). The indications are loud and clear; Joy And Fun is as good as ever. He's our selection.

SOLE POWER has been a bit hit and miss over the years but he is a Group One sprinter when on song. His most recent start, in the Meydan Sprint three weeks ago, indicated that he is as good as ever. He finished strongly at the end of the 1000 metres contest, and was unlucky to lose by a nose to Invincible Ash, who was carrying 2kg less than Sole Power. Nocturnal Affair finished third. Sole Power was making his seasonal debut and if he improves a bit with that run under his belt he will be right up with the best again. His first big win, in the 2010 Nunthorpe Sprint (G1) in England, came as a bit of a shock, as he was a 100-1 shot and beat champion sprinter Starspangledbanner. Sole Power winning on Dubai World Cup night 2012 would not be such a surprise.

MARGOT DID was fourth on Super Saturday and looks interesting. Ridden by Hayley Turner, this daughter of top Aussie sprinter Exceed And Excel won the Nunthorpe Stakes (G1) over this trip at York last year. She is a quick starter and this minimum trip is ideal. Incidentally, Sole Power's breakthrough came when he won the Nunthorpe at 100-1 back in 2009.

REGALLY READY disappointed on Super Saturday but we should never dismiss a contender based on one poor run. This is a serious racehorse. Handled by Steve Asmussen, trainer of the brilliant 2008 Dubai World Cup winner Curlin, Regally Ready is the best turf sprinter in North America. Regally Ready won last year's Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G2) at Churchill Downs. Racing over 1,000 metres, he beat Country Day easily by 1 ½ lengths. He had previously won the Nearctic Stakes (G1) over 1,200 metres in Canada, where he was a neck better than Bated Breath, one of the top sprinters in Europe. Regally Ready is a fast horse who normally has that little extra kick at the finish. He is also an experienced runner, with big race wins at high profile venues like Churchill Downs, Santa Anita, and Woodbine.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 6 JOY AND FUN
B: 3 REGALLY READY, 15 SOLE POWER, 16 MARGOT DID



Race 6


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN (G1)

Meydan 31 March 2012 – 1200 metres 6 furlongs Tapeta (one turn)

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, trainer, rider.

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals 3lb over this distance


126 - ROCKET MAN (Viscount) P Shaw / F Coetzee
122p - THE FACTOR (War Front) B Baffert / R Bejarano
122 - SEPOY (Elusive Quality) P Snowden / K McEvoy
120 - GIANT RYAN (Freud) B Parboo / W Martinez
117 - LUCKY NINE (Dubawi) C Fownes / B Pebbles
116 - HITCHENS (Acclamation) D Barron / S de Sousa
115 - KRYPTON FACTOR (Kyllachy) F Nass / K Fallon
115 - SOUL (Commands) S bin Suroor / F Dettori
112 - INXILE (Fayruz) D Nicholls / A Nicholls
111 - HAPPY DUBAI (Indian Ridge) A Al Raihe / J Murtagh
106 - IVER BRIDGE LAD (Avonbridge) J Ryan / M O'Connell
104? - RUSSIAN ROCK (Rock Of Gibraltar) M Al Muhairi / W Smith


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

ROCKET MAN
was brilliant here twelve months ago, beating Euroears by 2 ¼ lengths in this race. Euroears, a stable companion to The Factor, has been one of the best sprinters in the US over the past few years but Rocket Man gave him no chance. He went on to win two valuable sprints over 1200 metres at his home track Kranji in May, including when returning GF 126 in the Krisflyer Sprint (G1), but he lost his form and was most disappointing in the Hong Kong Sprint (G1) in December. His preparation for the Golden Shaheen went smoothly, as he cantered home ahead of inferior opposition in the Kranji Stakes on March 4. That was also the race he won comfortably when getting ready for Dubai World Cup night in 2011. But is he as good now as he was then?

THE FACTOR looks the one to beat though. He comes here in top form after two impressive wins at Santa Anita in California. He joined the elite in the Pat O'Brien Stakes (G1) at Del Mar last August, after a long break caused by injury. The grey colt went straight to the lead, and sped around the Polytrack to win by almost two lengths. He was not able to follow up in the big autumn races (twice he seemed unhappy when racing on the inside) but he has bounced back. He produced one of the best performances seen in the US this winter in the Malibu Stakes (G1) over 7 furlongs (1400 m.) on December 26. It was his fifth win and the sixth followed two months later, as The Factor followed up in the San Carlos Stakes (G2), winning from Sway Away and Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Amazombie. The Malibu, San Carlos and O'Brien are all run over 7 furlongs, but The Factor captured these races much thanks to his blistering early speed. The shorter distance of the Golden Shaheen will not inconvenience him. He is a fast starter who can carry his speed well and he holds a big chance.

SEPOY is an exciting young sprinter with 10 wins from 12 starts. His name was soon well known in his first season, as he took the Blue Diamond Stakes (G1) over 1200 metres at Caulfield on his fourth racecourse appearance. He suffered his first defeat next time out but came right back when it mattered to win the famous Golden Slipper Stakes (G1) at Rosehill in April 2011. Again tackling 1200 metres, Sepoy was always up in the firing line and won comfortably by 2 lengths from Mosheen. Five new straight wins were to follow, including in the Manikato Stakes (G1) and Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1) over 1200 metres during the Melbourne Cup feast at Flemington. Early speed and a strong late kick was again his way of getting the glory, albeit by just a head from Foxwedge this time.

Sepoy had a break after this, in preparation for trip to Dubai. He came back in the Oakleigh Plate (G1) over 1100 metres at Caulfield in February. He was facing a tough task under top weight, and had to settle for fifth place, beaten ¾ length by the winner, Woorim, who was carrying 3kg less than Sepoy. Woorim, as well as the third placed Facile Tigre, were 3rd and 15th respectively in another Group One two weeks later.

GIANT RYAN produced his best form to date when winning last year's Vosburgh Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park in New York, beating another high-class US sprinter, Force Freeze, by half a length over 6 furlongs on a muddy dirt track.


GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 7 THE FACTOR
B: 1 ROCKET MAN, 3 GIANT RYAN, 9 SEPOY



Race 7


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
DUBAI DUTY FREE STAKES (G1)

Meydan 31 March 2012 – 1800 metres / 9 furlongs turf

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, trainer, rider.

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals 2lb over this distance


123p - AWAIT THE DAWN (Giant's Causeway) A O'Brien / J O'Brien
121 - AMBITIOUS DRAGON (Pins) A Millard / D Whyte
121 - DARK SHADOW (Dance In The Dark) N Hori / Y Fukunaga
121 - PRESVIS (Sakhee) L Cumani / R Moore
119 - CALIFORNIA MEMORY* (Highest Honor) A Cruz / M Chadwick
119 - CITYSCAPE (Selkirk) R Charlton / J Doyle
119 - DELEGATOR (Dansili) S bin Suroor / F Dettori
119 - RAJSAMAN (Linamix) A Al Raihe / R Ffrench
118 - MUSIR (Redoute's Choice) M de Kock / K Shea
118 - RIO DE LA PLATA (Rahy) S bin Suroor / S de Sousa
117 - WIGMORE HALL (High Chaparral) M Bell / J Spencer
117 - DUBAWI GOLD (Dubawi) R Hannon / J Murtagh
117 - XTENSION (Xaar) J Moore / J Lloyd
116 - GREEN DESTINY (Marju) H Brown / G Scholfield
115 - MUTAHADEE (Encosta De Lago) M de Kock / C Soumillon
110 - CITY STYLE (City Zip) M Al Zarooni / M Barzalona

*) California Memory: Ex-Portus Blendium (USA)

Reserve

113 - ALBAASIL (Dansili) D Watson / tba


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

AWAIT THE DAWN
is a top class performer and he has drawn well in stall three. He may find this distance a bit on the sharp side, that is the one main factor against Await The Dawn but his is top rated and open to improvement. On class, he is right up there with the best. He was 8/13 favourite against the likes of Twice Over and Midday in the International Stakes (G1) at York last August (when beaten and very sick after the race). He had won his seasonal debut in 2011, scooting up by almost five lengths in a G3 over 1 ¼ miles at Chester (a tight left-handed track) and he impressed again by taking the Hardwicke Stakes (G2) over 1 ½ miles at Royal Ascot in the summer.

There isn't much pace signed on here, something that may make things a bit messy. Await The Dawn might actually benefit from such a scenario, as he is a adaptable and can be sent to the lead early on. His jockey Joseph O'Brien is particularly good on front-runners.

AMBITIOUS DRAGON, a top notch performer in Hong Kong, could be the one they all have to beat, however. This six-year-old has plenty going for him. Ideally suited by 1800 to 2000 metres, he has also shown high class form over shorter distances, and he comes here on the back of two big runs at Sha Tin. On both occasions he beat XTENSION by 1 ¼ lengths; in the Stewards' Cup (G1) in Janaury and the Hong Kong Gold Cup (G1) in February. Ambitious Dragon has never been better. He cruised up from the middle of the field and won both these races comfortably.

CALIFORNIA MEMORY, who won when Ambitious Dragon ran below form in last year's Hong Kong Cup (G1), was third both in the Stewards' Cup and Hong Kong Gold Cup.

DARK SHADOW is one of the best horses over this distance in Japan. He won two valuable events over 1800 m. last year; the Epsom Cup (G3) in June, from Able Chairman, and the Mainichi Okan (G2) four months later. He did not have such an easy time of it that day, but showed his battling qualities to come out best in a close finish to beat Real Impact by a neck. Real Impact had previously won the Yasuda Kinen (G1). Dark Shadow himself came up half a length short of a G1 win in the Tenno Sho Autumn (G1) over 2000 metres at Tokyo in late October. Tosen Jordan got the better of him, in a race where Japan's Horse Of The Year, Buena Vista, ran fourth. Four weeks later Buena Vista won the Japan Cup (G1), giving Dark Shadow's form a nice boost.

PRESVIS won this race last year. The key to Presvis is the pace of the race, as he is always last in the early part of his races. Therefore, the quicker they go up front, the better it is for him, as loves cutting through the pack and passing tiring speed horses. Presvis has been below par in his two races this winter but both contests lacked pace. The danger is that he will end up in a similar scenario here, compromised by slow early fractions.


GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 2 AWAIT THE DAWN
B: 4 AMBITIOUS DRAGON – 7 DARK SHADOW – 12 PRESVIS




Race 8


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC (G1)

Meydan 31 March 2012 - 12 furlongs turf

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, trainer, rider.

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals 1,5lb over this distance


126 - CIRRUS DES AIGLES (Even Top) C Barande-Barbe / O Peslier
122 - ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (Montjeu) A O'Brien / J O'Brien
120p - BEATEN UP (Beat Hollow) W Haggas / J Murtagh
119 - TREASURE BEACH (Galileo) A O'Brien / J Spencer
119 - BOLD SILVANO (Silvano) M de Kock / C Soumillon
112 - MAHBOOBA (Galileo) mare M de Kock / K Shea
115 - JAKKALBERRY (Storming Home) M Botti / R Moore
115 - SHIMRAAN (Rainbow Quest) M Al Zarooni / M Barzalona
113p - SONGCRAFT (Singspiel) S bin Suroor / S de Sousa
112 - CAVALRYMAN (Halling) S bin Suroor / F Dettori

Mahbooba: 2kg / 4,4lb sex weight allowance,
add 4,4lb to her rating for direct comparison with the males.



GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

Three names stand out in this year's Sheema Classic:

CIRRUS DES AIGLES
, winner of the Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot, when he outstayed World Cup contender So You Think over 1 ¼ miles (2000 m.), also won the Grand Prix de Deauville (G2) over 2500 metres in France last year, and he is a classy and versatile performer. His form improved markedly in 2011 and, if he keeps it, he looks set for more big wins in 2012. He prepped for the Sheema Classic over an artificial surface at Chantilly but, though he ran a game race, was readily beaten by the German trained Zazou, who goes for the World Cup. Cirrus des Aigles needed the run, and he did not seem to like the surface. So it's back to the lawn here and he is one of the leading contenders.

ST NICHOLAS ABBEY landed the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) over this distance at Churchill Downs in Kentucky last November, beating Sea Moon and Brilliant Speed with ease. What was remarkable about this smooth success was that it came at the end of a long season for St Nicholas Abbey and he is a bit special. He also won at the sharp Chester course last spring, and ran solid races in defeat behind Nathaniel in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1) at Ascot and behind Danedream in Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) at Longchamp. This son of Montjeu was an exciting juvenile in 2009 but missed most of the 2010 season due to injury. Still lightly raced, he might be improving.

BEATEN UP has less experience than the two above but he is every bit as talented, having won all his three races in England last year. He overcame inexperience, and a step up in class, to win the 12-furlong St. Simon Stakes (G3) at Newbury last October. Beaten Up was immature in the preliminaries and it seemed unlikely that he would have the right focus out on the track. He didn't either but it did not affect his performance, however, as he swept to an impressive 4 1/2-length win over the favourite, Al Kazeem. Barbican, a Dubai Gold Cup contender, finished third and he won well next time out. Beaten Up ran to Globeform 120p at Newbury, an unusually high rating for a horse with so little experience. He must be our selection in the Sheema Classic.


GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 3 BEATEN UP
B: 8 CIRRUS DES AIGLES, 9 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY



Race 9


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
DUBAI WORLD CUP (G1)

Meydan 31 March 2012 – 2000 metres / 10 furlongs Tapeta

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, trainer, rider.

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds,
one length equals 2lb over this distance


125 - SO YOU THINK (High Chaparral) A O'Brien / J O'Brien
120 - ROYAL DELTA (Empire Maker) filly B Mott / J Lezcano
122 - GAME ON DUDE (Awesome Again) B Baffert / C Sutherland
122 - PLANTEUR (Danehill Dancer) M Botti / R Moore
120 - EISHIN FLASH (King's Best) H Fujiwara / C-P Lemaire
119 - SMART FALCON (Gold Allure) K Kozaki / Y Take
119 - TRANSCEND (Wild Rush) T Yasuda / S Fujita
119 - ZAZOU (Shamardal) W Hickst / O Peslier
117tp - CAPPONI (Medicean) M Al Zarooni / A Ajtebi
118 - MONTEROSSO (Dubawi) M Al Zarooni / M Barzalona
117 - MENDIP (Harlan's Holiday) S bin Suroor / S de Sousa
117 - SILVER POND (Act One) D Watson / J Murtagh
117 - PRINCE BISHOP (Dubawi) S bin Suroor / F Dettori
116 - MASTER OF HOUNDS (Kingmambo) M de Kock / C Soumillon

Royal Delta: 2kg / 4,4lb sex weight allowance,
add 4,4lb to her rating for direct comparison with the males.



GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

SO YOU THINK
is the logical favourite, even on his seasonal debut and coming off a couple of below par efforts last autumn. The Irish trained, but New Zealand bred, son of High Chaparral has a lot going for him here. He is at his best over this distance, having beaten Workforce in the Eclipse Stakes (G1) and then denyed Snow Fairy in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) last year – when he was also a good second to Rewilding in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot – and he is a battle hardened, experienced performer. So You Think is not a sure thing here, but he must be the selection. The most impressive aspect to this horse is his ability to produce high class form over a variety of tracks. His run at the Breeders' Cup was disappointing but So You Think was probably a tired horse at that stage, after a long hard season in Europe. His stable companion Cape Blanco finished fourth in the Dubai World Cup last year. So You Think is markedly better.

GAME ON DUDE also has a good chance. This late developing Californian runner ran second in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), beaten 1 ½ lengths by Drosselmeyer, but he actually produced an even better Globeform rating on his first start this year, when winning the San Antonio Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita with incredible ease, beating the in-form Uh Oh Bango by 5 ¼ lengths. The margin could have been bigger. Perhaps he is improving still, and if so Game On Dude will take some beating. His prominent running style is ideal at Meydan and normally he should have a tactical advantage over most of his rivals, but the widest stall is hardly ideal. The fact that he has already won a big race over a synthetic track is a plus. Chantal Sutherland, the first woman to ride in the Dubai World Cup, has a good chance of also becoming the first woman to win the big race. But only if she gets a clean and swift break from the stalls.

ROYAL DELTA is one of the best fillies in North America and this Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (G1) winner should not be underestimated as she takes on the the boys for the first time. Taking Globeform 120 into the battle, and enjoying a 2kg (4,4lbs) weight advantage, she is in with an excellent chance. Don't worry about her below par run last time out, she has won two big races following such efforts at home, and the 8.5-furlong distance of the Sabin Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream was too short for her. Also, don't forget that the winner of that race, Awesome Maria is a top class miler (she runs at Gulfstream on Saturday). The World Cup distance is just perfect for Royal Delta and, since stamina is her forte, her chances are best if the race gets a strong pace early on. A slow pace would not suit Royal Delta. She likes to come with a “lengthning”, strong finish in the straight – not an immediate change of gears. With Game On Dude, Capponi and two Japanese front-runners in the field, the pace should be good.

PLANTEUR has been a bit of a forgotten horse in the build-up to the World Cup, mainly because he was not sure to get into the field. Defections meant that he got in and one can easily argue that he should have been an automatic qualifier, having won the Prix Ganay (G1) in Paris last year. Not only was it a valuable win, Planteur beat the likes of Sarafina, Cirrus des Aigles and Cape Blanco that day. He had landed the Prix d'Harcourt (G2) on his seasonal debut three weeks prior. Planteur has not had a prep race but note that he has won first time out every season the past three years. At around 14-1, this horse is clearly an interesting each-way bet. When on song, he is a top class performer and 2000 metres is his optimum trip. Planteur was badly managed in the second half of last season, running twice in top mile races, but he has changed trainer since and could be an interesting horse to follow this year.

CAPPONI is the “now horse” in Dubai. He has improved with every run since joining Mahmhood Al Zarooni's team ahead of this season, and produced what was easily his best form to date when landing the Al Maktoum Challenge Round III (G1) over the full World Cup distance on Super Saturday. Enterprisingly ridden by Ahmed Ajtebi, Capponi soon went ahead to join the early speed of the race and. He was in command around the final bend and had plenty left in the tank when coming into the straight. Some decent runners came under pressure as they tried to close the gap on him, but Capponi kept on really strongly all the way to the winning post and was not for catching. He won the newly elevated Group One easily by 4 lengths from the ex-French G2 winner Silver Pond, with Prince Bishop running on from the back to take third. It would not come as a shock at all to see Capponi improve again, and make his presence felt in the World Cup. Proven form over the course and distance is a big plus at Meydan.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 4 SO YOU THINK
B: 6 PLANTEUR, 7 ROYAL DELTA, 11 CAPPONI, 14 GAME ON DUDE


_____________________________________________________________________________


GLOBEFORM BETTING PLANS, DUBAI WORLD CUP DAY


R2 - GODOLPHIN MILE


WIN: 4 AFRICAN STORY

EW, Win & Show: 8 Western Aristocrat (7-1)

EXACTA BOX / REVERSED: 4 & 8

TRIFECTAS

A: 4 with 8 with 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13
B: 4 with 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13 with 8

DOUBLE: AFRICAN STORY & OPINION POLL (R3)


R3 – DUBAI GOLD CUP

WIN: 10 OPINION POLL

EW / Win & Show: 13 Kasbah Bliss (20-1 bookmakers)

4 EXACTAS

10 with: 8, 9, 11, 13

40 TRIFECTAS

10 with 2, 8, 9, 11, 13 with 2, 8, 9, 11, 13
2, 8, 9, 11, 13 with 10 with 2, 8, 9, 11, 13


R4 – UAE DERBY

WIN: 13 WROTE

EW, Win & Show: 8 Yang Tse Kai (20-1)

Win & Show US pools: 12 Red Duke (ML 20-1)

EXACTA BOX / COMBINATIONS: 7, 12 & 13

EXACTA BOX / COMBINATIONS: 7, 8 & 13

TRIFECTA PLAN (48 lines)

A: 7 with 13 with All 12
B: 7 with All 12 with 13
C: 13 with 7 with All 12
D: 13 with All 12 with 7


R5 - AL QUOZ SPRINT

WIN: 6 JOY AND FUN (7-1)

US players: Keep an eye on Margot Did's price, anything over 12-1 should be taken.

DOUBLE: JOY AND FUN (7-1) and THE FACTOR (5-1) EW recommended for UK players


R6 – GOLDEN SHAHEEN

WIN: 7 THE FACTOR (5-1 bookmakers)

TRIFECTAS

A: 7 with 1, 3, 9 with 1, 3, 9
B: 7 with 1, 3, 9, 11, 12 with 1, 3, 9, 11, 12
C: 7 with 1, 3, 9 with 11,12


R7 – DUBAI DUTY FREE

WIN: 2 AWAIT THE DAWN (12-1 bookmakers)

EW, Win & Show: 12 Presvis (16-1 bookmakers)

Exacta Box / Reversed: 2 and 12

TRIFECTA PLAN (330 lines)

A: 2 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15
B: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 with 2 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15
C: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15 with 2


R8 – SHEEMA CLASSIC

WIN: 3 BEATEN UP

EXACTA BOX / COMBINATIONS: 3, 8, 9

TRIFECTA BOX / COMBINATIONS: 3, 8, 9


R9 – DUBAI WORLD CUP

See separate article / email

Good luck to all!




Globeform Rating codes

110p = improvement expected (moves up 2lb on ranking).
110P = significant improvement expeceted (moves up 5lb on ranking).
110t = enjoyed favorable trip when rating was achieved.
110d = form appears to be deteriorating.
110? = provisional, questionable or unreliable rating.







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