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Queen Elizabeth II: Frankel to lead 3yo domination?
by Geir Stabell (geir.stabell@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2011-10-15 07:04:05 (First published: 2011-10-06 11:15:59 )


Ascot Oct 15:

The unbeaten, the excellent, the superb Frankel will be long odds-on as he takes in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) as his last start this season. And he could easily lead a domination by the three-year-olds, as the French filly Immortal Verse and the fast improving colt Excelebration are his most serious rivals.


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES (G1)

Ascot 15 Oct 2011 1 mile Turf

Runners presented with best Globeform, sire and trainer

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds
1 length = 2lb over this distance


131p - FRANKEL (Galileo) Sir Henry Cecil / Tom Queally (2)
123p - EXCELEBRATION (Exceed and Excel) Marco Botti / Jamie Spencer (7)
120p - IMMORTAL VERSE (Pivotal) filly Robert Collet / Gerald Mosse (6)
120 - DICK TURPIN (Arakan) Richard Hannon / C Soumillon (5)
119 - POET'S VOICE (Dubawi) Saeed bin Suroor / Frankie Dettori (1)
117 - DUBAWI GOLD (Dubawi) Richard Hannon / Johnny Murtagh (3)
116 - SIDE GLANCE (Passing Glance) Andrew Balding / Jimmy Fortune (8)
108 - BULLET TRAIN (Sadler's Wells) Sir Henry Cecil / Ian Mongan (4)

Immortal Verse: 3lb weight allowance, add three pounds
to her rating for direct comparison with the males.



GLOBEFORM NOTES

Frankel Globeform 131p straight mile at Newmarket, and again around turn Goodwood, superb!

Excelebration Winner of G1 over mile in France, even better over 7 furlongs two back, exacta horse

Immortal Verse Beat Goldikova, who may not have the same 'double-kick' anymore, exacta horse

Dick Turpin Tough and durable miler, peaked early this year, and won G1 Italy last start, at 25-1 the best "ew" bet

Poet's Voice Won this race last year (when around a turn), struggling but moving up gradually now

Dubawi Gold Huge improver in the spring, when distant 2nd to Frankel at Newmarket, still in form

Side Glance Smart but not that smart, below par in Woodbine Mile latest start

Bullet Train Pacemaker for Frankel


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

FRANKEL
is of course impossible to oppose as he gets his final start as a three-year-old. This brilliant son of Galileo is a perfect 8-for-8 in his career and it would come as major shock if his winning streak is snapped in the Queen Elizabeth II. He has produced Globeform 131p on two occasions, when winning the 2,000 Guineas (G1) by 6 lengths in late May and when taking the Sussex Stakes (G1) by 5 lengths at Goodwood in late July. In between, he gained a not so impressive win over Zoffany in the St. James's Palace Stakes (G1) at the Royal Ascot meeting, when tactics went somewhat pearshaped nad he ran too hard too early in the contest, only to tire close home.

He outclassed his twelve rivals in the Guineas, a race he led every step of the way and had wrapped up as he passed the furlong-marker. Dubawi Gold was second but never posed any sort of a threat. Zoffany got to within length of Frankel in the St. James's Palace, a race run over the round course. Not many horses have won a Group 1 at Royal Ascot despite running lengths below form. Frankel was back to his best at Goodwood, where he kicked stylishly away from Canford Cliffs, one of the world's bet older turf milers, and won as he liked. The latter was not at a peak on that occasion but Frankel was deeply impressive nevertheless. If he runs like that again in the Queen Elizabeth II, he will win the race by open lengths.

IMMORTAL VERSE is the most likely runner-up. The French trained filly turned a corner in June, has improved all along since, and she is now coming off three straight good wins. Two weeks after beating Mixed Intention in the Prix de Sandringham (G2) at Chantilly, she produced an first rate performance to beat Nova Hawk by 2 lengths in the Coronation Stakes (G1) over a mile at Royal Ascot (on the round course). She moved forward again on her next outing, in the Prix de Jacques le Marois (G1) over a straight mile at Deauville. Immortal Verse beat none other than Goldikova that day, as she outran the triple Breeders' Cup winner to score by a length. Saphresa, who won the Sun Chariot Stakes (G1) on her next start, finished third and the form is rock solid. Her performance was worth Globeform 120p and, as Immortal Verse seems to have that little bit more stamina than Excelebration, and also since she gets 3lb from the colt, she is marginally preferred as the excta filler. She was a late foal and there might still be quite a bit of improvement in her.

EXCELEBRATION ran third behind Frankel and Zoffany in the St. James's Palace Stakes (G1) here at Ascot in June, beaten 2 lengths by the winner, and he has picked up two impressive wins since. He beat Beacon Lodge by 6 lengths in the 7-furlong Hungerford Stakes (G3) at Newbury in April, when Dubawi Gold was back in fourth place (he had finished behind Execebration also at Ascot). Excelebration kicked for home two furlongs out at Newbury and was most comfortable winner. It was the second time he performed well over that course and distance. The first time was when he ran second behind Frankel in the Greenham Stakes (G3) in the spring. At the time, some said beating him was nothing to make any fuss about. We all know better now. A month after his Hungerford win, Excelebration was shipped out of England for the first time, to take on seven others in the Prix du Moulin (G1) at Longchamp. The ground was very soft and a worry for his connections but it did not seem to bother the son of Exceed And Excel himself, as he came home a ready winner, 1 lengths ahead of Rio De La Plata (Dubawi Gold fourth). Excelebration broke from the inside stall (a big advantage over a mile at Longchamp) and enjoyed a good trip in third early on. He took the lead a furlong out and ran on well, despite edging right in the closing stages. Rajsaman was third, a half-length behind Rio de La Plata, and these two filled first and second, in reverse order, in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein (G2) at Longchamp three weeks later. This level of form puts Excelebration in with good place claims in the QEII.

DICK TURPIN is also in with a shot of finishing in the top three and, while he is far more exposed than the three-year-olds, he is the one to go for if you fancy having an each-way bet. Capable og Globeform 120 and coming off a win, Dick Turpin can be backed at 25-1, a far more tempting EW proposition than taking 6-1 about Immortal Verse or Excelebration. It's not tempting at all to bet against Frankel but if he were to run below form, then Dick Turpin is not without a chance. Though he did finish 4 lengths behind Immortal Verse when seventh in the Marois at Deauville, so to be placed is probably the best his connections can hope for.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 7 FRANKEL
C: 8 IMMORTAL VERSE, 6 EXCELEBRATION

RECOMMENDED BETS


1 EXACTA:

7 Frankel to beat 8 Immortal Verse


6 TRIFECTAS:

1: 7
2: 2, 6, 8
3: 2, 6, 8







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