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Golden Jubilee: Ground conditions a worry
by Geir Stabell (geir.stabell@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2011-06-18 04:55:20 (First published: 2011-06-18 02:34:43 )


Royal Ascot 18 June

The rain falling over the Queen's racecourse is not good news for the connections of Golden Jubilee Stakes (G1) favourite, Godolphin's high-class performer Delegator. His is the most accomplished name on the list of 17 declared horses, but it could disappear from the list if the wet weather continues. The big sprint is quite open, and horses with soft ground form must have an advantage.


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
GOLDEN JUBILEE STAKES (G1)

Royal Ascot 18 June 2011 3yo plus 6 furlongs straight

Runners presented with best
Globeform rating, sire, trainer / jockey / draw

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.
One length equals 3lb over this distance


121p - ELZAAM (Redoute's Choice) / R Varian / R Hills / 10
119* - HOORAY (Invincible Spirit) filly / Sir M Prescott / S Sanders / 2
119 - DELEGATOR (Dansili) NON-RUNNER
119 - KINGSGATE NATIVE (Mujadil) / Sir M Stoute / R Moore / 5
118 - STAR WITNESS (Starcraft) / D O'Brien / S Arnold / 11
118 - ROYAL ROCK (Sakhee) / C Wall / G Baker / 6
118 - SOCIETY ROCK (Rock Of Gibraltar) / J Fanshawe / P Cosgrave / 3
117p - BATED BREATH (Dansili) / R Charlton / R Hughes / 4
114p - BEWITCHED (Dansili) filly / C O'Brien / J Murtagh / 12
114 - DALGHAR (Anabaa) / A Balding / J Fortune / 15
113 - HITCHENS (Acclamation) / D Barron / F Berry / 16
112 - DEFINIGHTLY (Diktat) / R Charlton / O Peslier / 17
111 - AMICO FRITZ (Fasliyev) / H-A Pantall / M Guyon / 13
111 - GENKI (Shink Forest) / R Charlton / J Spencer / 1
110? - MONSIEUR CHEVALIER (Chevalier) / R Hannon / K Fallon / 7
108 - PALACE MOON (Fantastic Light) / W Knight / J Crowley / 14
108 - JIMMY STYLES (Inchinor) / C Cox / A Kirby / 8


Fillies get a 3lb sex allowance add three pounds to their ratings for direct comparison with males

* ) Hooray's rating achieved in 2010, she ran to GF 111p when winning at Epsom last time out.



GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

ELZAAM
is an interesting three-year-old and he ran a huge race to win in Listed company at Newbury last month. Racing over 6 furlongs, he totally outclassed a smart field of three-year-olds to win by 6 lengths from Cape To Rio, with Dinkum Diamond well beaten in third. Dinkum Diamond was coming off a good run against older horses at Newmarket and he went on to run well again under a tough weight behind Margot Did at Sandown Park last weekend. Elzaam returned an almost ubelievable GF 121p at Newbury, making him already one of the best sprinters in Europe. He is probably best on good ground but he ran one decent race on soft as a juvenile, and he is well worth a bet at a nice price here. 14-1 is way too big.

HOORAY, last year's top rated juvenile filly, won a G1 on good to soft ground at Newmarket and this speedy filly came back to winning form over 7 furlongs at Epsom on Derby day. That was against much easier opposiotion than she faces here, and she was odds-on to win. The run will have helped her regain her confidence, after she had failed to stay a mile in the 1,000 Guineas (G1), and she probably has a chance. Don't forget, these 3yo girls get all the weight concessions, and she is quite a strong sort. The negateve factor is that she likes to blast away in front and such tactics may not be the best over the testing ground at the Ascot straight course.

STAR WITNESS, one of the better sprinters in Australia (where he has run well on soft), finished well for second behind Prohibit in the 5-furlong King's Stand Stakes (G1) here on Tuesday, and 6 furlongs will suit him better. Australian trainers often run their horses back quickly and this is a tough horse so making his second start in a week is not a worry. He has a good chance.

BATED BREATH, an elegant and steadily imporoving sprinter, also comes into the reckoning (and soft ground may not be such a problem for this fellow). Coming off his career best run, when beating Triple Aspect (who had won the race in 2010) in the competitive Leisure Stakes (LR) at Windsor, Bated Breath is just the type to go on improving and he's on the shortlist.

BEWITCHED also belongs on that list. She won well over this course and distance in the Benough Stakes (G3) last October, and this Irish trained filly's form was given a big boost when Zofanny ran such a good race for second behind Frankel in the St James's Palace Stakes (G1) on Tuesday. Zoffany was the runner-up when Bewitched won the Ballycorus Stakes (G3) over 7 furlongs at The Curragh three weeks ago. She beat Zoffany (who was making a belated seasonal debut) by 1 lengths but was eased in the closing stages and looked value for more. Her Ascot win last year came at the expense of Genki and Bewitch seems better this term and she is progressive. Another plus point; she likes soft ground.

KINGSGATE NATIVE did not run up to his best when sixth in the King's Stand Stakes (G1) on Tuesday and his second to Sole Power first time out this year was better. He has become a bit unpredictable but this gelding has enough class to make an impact.


GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 16 ELZAAM
B: 2 BATED BREATH, 14 STAR WITNESS, 15 BEWITCHED, 17 HOORAY
C: 9 KINGSGATE NATIVE


RECOMMENDED BETS


EW / Win & Show: 16 Elzaam 14-1

10 EXACTAS

A: 16 with 2, 9, 14, 15, 17
B: 2, 9, 14, 15, 17 with 16

60 TRIFECTAS

A: 16 with 2, 9, 14, 15, 17 with 2, 9, 14, 15, 17
B: 2, 9, 14, 15, 17 with 16 with 2, 9, 14, 15, 17
C: 2, 9, 14, 15, 17 with 2, 9, 14, 15, 17 with 16





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