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Coronation Stakes: 12-1 is too tempting
by Geir Stabell (geir.stabell@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2011-06-21 06:55:35 (First published: 2011-06-16 15:43:43 )


Royal Ascot 17 June:

This is wide open, not at all similar to previous editions of the Coronation Stakes (G1), where we have so often had two or three big names to focus on. This year, we are presented with a 13-runner field where nine names are within 7lb of the top rated. That equals about 3,5 lengths and we could easily get an upset in the one-mile fillies' contest and a nice 12-1 shot seems the one to go with in this office. Too tempting!


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
CORONATION STAKES (G1)

Royal Ascot 17 June 2011 3yo fillies 1 mile round course

Runners presented with best
Globeform rating, sire, trainer / jockey

Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.
One length equals 2lb over this distance


114 - TOGETHER (Galileo) / A O'Brien / R Moore
113? - MEMORY (Danehill Dancer) / R Hannon / R Hughes
111 - MAQAASID (Green Desert) / J Gosden / R Hills
109p - MORE THAN REAL (More Than Ready) / T Pletcher / O Peslier
109 - CLAIOMH SOLAIS (Galilelo) / J Bolger / K Manning
108p - NOVA HAWK (Hawk Wing) / Rod Collet / S Pasquier
108p - IMMORTAL VERSE (Pivotal) / Robert Collet / G Mosse
107p - JOVIALITY (Cape Cross) / J Gosden / W Buick
107 - THEYSKEN'S THEORY (Bernardini) / B Meehan / M Dwyer
106 - BAREFOOT LADY (Footstepinthesand) / R Fahey / P Hanagan
105p - CLINICAL (Motivator) / Sir M Prescott / Seb Sanders
101p - I LOVE ME (Cape Cross) / A Balding / D Probert
..96 - ELSHABAKIYA (Diktat) / C Brittain / P Robinson


GLOBEFORM NOTES

TOGETHER - Has the best form, 2nd in two Guineas races, 2nd in G1 over course and distance last year
MEMORY - One of the best juveniles last year, won at Royal Ascot too, but refused to race in 1,000 Gns.
MAQAASID - Very game in 1,000 Guineas (3rd) but beaten by wide draw in French Guineas, course will suit
MORE THAN REAL - First run since impressive win over the classy Winter Memories at the Breeders' Cup
CLAIOMH SOLAIS - Was a 33-1 shot when 4th in Irish 1,000 Guineas, late foal, unraced at two, interesting
NOVA HAWK - Taking, strong filly, plenty of scope, nice runs in Guineas and French equivalent, beware!
IMMORTAL VERSE - Very nice French filly, progressing well and won Prix Sandringham, obvious chance
JOVIALITY - Cuts back in distance after beating Barefoot Lady over 10.5 furlongs, more to offer
THEYSKEN'S THEORY - Group winner last year, easy win in soft company last time, can't be dismissed
BAREFOOT LADY - Game and tough filly, readily beaten by Joviality last out, and getting exposed
CLINICAL - Made a nice seasonal debut against oldfer fillies at Epsom, could well step forward here
I LOVE ME - Ran respectably when foiled by slow pace last time / beh. Codemaster (who ran well Tues)
ELSHABAKIYA - Simply not good enough at this level



GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

TOGETHER
ran second to Blue Bunting in the 1,000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket and filled the same place behind her stable companion Misty For Me in the Irish 1,000 Guineas at The Curragh. That represents the best form going into the Coronation Stakes, but it is not brilliant. Blue Bunting and Misty For Me were both well beaten in the Oaks (G1), by the way. Together is solid, though perhaps a bit one paced. She ran well over this mile at Ascot last year, when runner-up to White Moonstone in the Fillies Mile (G1).

NOVA HAWK is well worth a bet at a big price. This French trained filly was easily the pick of the paddock before the 1,000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket, when she was a 50-1 shot. She was also a bit on edge and immature, however, and that would have cost her some energy. Still, the strong and scopey daughter of Hawk Wing ran well to finish fourth, behind Blue Bunting, Together and Maqaasid. Nova Hawk had the latter well beind when she finished fourth also in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (G1) at Longchamp a month ago. The pace scenario may not have been ideal for her that day, and coming home 4 lengths behind Golden Lilac was not a bad effort. Golden Lilac, who won the French Oaks I great style on Sunday, is the best 3yo filly in Europe at the moment. She would be long odds-on if running in the Coronation Stakes, so why is Nova Hawk as big as 12-1? Her trainer said after Newmarket that she would prefer soft ground.

MAQAASID looked a winner when delivering her challenge inside the final furlong in the Guineas at Newmarket but she just failed to stay the mile there and had to settle for third. The mile at Ascot may not be quite as testing and she also has a chance (she won the Queen Mary here last year). Forget her eighth place finish in the Pouliches last time. She was drwn wide that day, and post 14 over a mile at Longchamp is like giving a way a five-length adtantage at the outset.

MORE THAN REAL is an interesting contender. Her form in 2010 was very solid indeed, but the Todd Pletcher trainee has not raced since last year's Breeders' Cup, when her superior tactical speed helped her to beat the favourite Winter Memories in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2). She produced Globeform 109p at Churchill Downs and that level of form gives her a good chance at Royal Ascot though seasonal debutants rarely win at this meeting.

IMMORTAL VERSE, like our selection Nova Hawk also representing France, won well when beating Mixed Intention by half a length in a G3 at Chantilly last time out, and had previously been 11th behind Golden Lilac in the Pouliches (where she also had a bad draw). Immortal Verse refused to enter the stalls for the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket in May.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 11 NOVA HAWK
B: 6 IMMORTAL VERSE, 13 TOGETHER
C: 7 JOVIALITY, 8 MAQAASID, 10 MORE THAN REAL

RECOMMENDED BETS


WIN: 11 Nova Hawk

10 EXACTAS

A: 11 with 6, 13
B: 6, 13 with 11

C: 11 with 7, 8, 10
D: 7, 8, 10 with 11

60 TRIFECTAS

A: 11 with 6, 7, 8, 10, 13 with 6, 7, 8, 10, 13
B: 6, 7, 8, 10, 13 with 11 with 6, 7, 8, 10, 13
C: 6, 7, 8, 10, 13 with 6, 7, 8, 10, 13 with 11





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