St. James's Palace: Frankel is much the best
by Geir Stabell (firstname.lastname@example.org) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2011-06-13 03:44:50 (First published: 2011-06-13 03:22:20 )
Royal Ascot Tuesday
ST. JAMES'S PALACE STAKES (G1)
Royal Ascot 14 June 2011 – 3yo - 1 mile round course
Runners presented with best Globeform rating, sire, trainer / jockey.
Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds. One length equals 2lb over this distance
131p - FRANKEL (Galileo) Sir Henry Cecil / T Queally
122p - DREAM AHEAD (Diktat) D Simcock / W Buick
120?p - GRAND PRIX BOSS (Sakura Bakusahin O) Y Yahagi / M Demuro
119p - EXCELEBRATION (Exceed And Excel) M Botti / A Kirby
117 - DUBAWI GOLD (Dubawi) R Hannon / R Hughes
115 - WOOTTON BASSETT (Iffraaj) R Fahey / P Hanagan
111 - ZOFFANY (Dansili) A O'Brien / R Moore
109 - NEEBRAS (Oasis Dream) M Al Zarooni / F Dettori
107 - REROUTED (Stormy Atlantic) B Hills / M Hills
FRANKEL – Awsome at Newmarket and Ascot suits him better, wide margin G2 winner here last year
DREAM AHEAD – Impressive young sprinter last year, making seasonal debut, excels on soft ground
GRAND PRIX BOSS – Top grade mile winner from Japan is probably capable of around GF 120
EXCELEBRATION – No match for Frankel in April, visually deeply impressive in classic win Germany since
DUBAWI GOLD – Remote second to Frankel Newmarket, came too late when 2nd again Irish Guineas, game
WOOTTON BASSETT – Runaway winner of French G1 over 7 fur. last year, disappointing first up this year
NEEBRAS – Second in G2 as a juvenile, beat nothing when successful in May, nervous sort, no chance
REROUTED – Was he or wasn't he a meant to be Frankel's pacemaker at Newmarket? No matter...
FRANKEL crushed his rivals when winning the 2,000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket on April 30, when he went straight to the lead – opened up by around 15 lengths, and won by 6 lengths from Dubawi Gold, who came through from the back to beat Native Khan for second. Dubawi Gold has since run second also in the Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1) – where he was arguably an unlucky loser after being given too much to do – and Native Khan (who won a G3 on his seasonal debut) ran a solid race for fifth place in the Derby (G1) at Epsom. Frankel's form is excellent, he keeps to beating high class horses as if they were ordinary claimers, and he will win again here. Ascot probably suits him better than Newmarket too, as going around a bend and into a shorter straight plays more to his strengths. Frankel won the Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) over this course and distance last September, storming home by 10 lengths from Klammer – who went on to win the Mill Reef Stakes (G2) on his next start. Frankel rounded his juvenile campaign off by beating Roderic O'Connor easily in the Dewhurst Stakes (G1) at Newmarket in the autumn. His runner-up that day won a G1 in France a couple of weeks later and is also the colt who beat Dubawi Gold in the Irish Guineas. Whichever weay we look at Frankel's form, it tells us that he is an expectional thoroughbred. A mile is his ideal trip, Globeform ratings say that he has almost five lengths in hand, and he is impossible to oppose.
DREAM AHEAD landed th Prix Morny (G1) at Deauville and Middle Park Stakes (G1) at Newmarket last year – both over 6 straight furlongs. He produced his best form in the Middle Park, run on quite testing ground, when slamming the Royal Ascot winner Strong Suit by 9 lengths. Dream Ahead beat Tin Horse to win the Morny, and that colt is now a classic winner, having captured the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (G1) at Longchamp in May. Dream Ahead ran way belo his true form when only fifth, beaten 7 lengths, behind Frankel In last year's Dewhurst (the race probably came too quickly after his Middle Park win). He is a massive, imposing colt with plenty of scope, but he also looks a sprinter through and through. Seasonal debutants rarely win at Royal Ascot, so that he has not raced this year is a worry, is the distance. Any significant ran will be to his advantage though. He must be considered if it comes up really soft.
EXCELEBRATION makes more appeal for Exacta purposes though. This attractive son of Exceed And Excel made a good start to his 3yo campaign when second to Frankel in the 7-furlong Greenham Stakes (G3) at Newbury in April, albeit comfortably beaten 4 four lengths by the champion. Excelebration was sent to Cologne on May 22, to contest the German 2000 Guineas (G2) over a mile. After always travelling supremely well just off the pace, he made a smooth run to the lead a furlong from home, then sprinted away to win the race by 7 lengths from Gereon, a G3 winner last year, with dual Listed winner Acadius back in third place. The form of this Guineas has not been put to a test since but the way Excelebration won suggests that he is a Group 1 winner in the making. Note that Gereon runs in the Union-Rennnen (G2) at Cologne this Monday.
GRAND PRIX BOSS is one of the best of his generation in Japan, and he won the NHK Mile (G1) at Tokyo racecourse on his most recent start, beating Cotillon by 1 ½ lengths after showing a good turn of foot well inside the final furlong. Cotillon ran badly in the Japanese Derby (G1) three weeks later but Real Impact, who was third in the NHK Mile, gave the form a massive boost by beating older horses in the prestigious Yasuda Kinen (G1) earlier this month. Grand Prix Boss is set to be ridden by Mirco Demuro, the Italian jockey who rode Victiore Pisa so brilliantly to success in this year's Dubai World Cup (G1), and this combination must be respected. Grand Prix Boss makes a lot of sense as an Exacta filler and he is a must for any Trifecta players.
DUBAWI GOLD has already had four races this season. He won two minor events on the Polytrack at Lingfield Park before overcoming the big step up in class and take second in the 2000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket. He produced a better Globeform rating in that event than when failing to catch the front-running Roderic O'Connor in the Irish equivalent three weeks later. Dubawi Gold was too far back that day and we can expect to see him in a more prominent role at Ascot – a course he won over as a juvenile. He is good enough to get a slice of the action but he has been on the go for almost three months, Dubawi Gold is coming two hard races, and it may be beginning to take its toll.
A: 4 FRANKEL
B: 3 EXCELEBRATION
C: 1 DREAM AHEAD, 5 GRAND PRIX BOSS
A: 4 to beat 3
B: 4 to beat 1, 5
2: 1, 3, 5
3: 1, 3, 5
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