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Qipco 1,000 Guineas: Wide open classic
by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2011-05-01 06:03:41 (First published: 2011-04-23 08:51:14 )


Newmarket Sunday:

The first fillies' classic of the year, the Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (G1), is shaping up to be a wide open contest.

Ground conditions will have a say in who goes off favourite on Sunday, as the French trained contender Moonlight Cloud prefers it dry and the locally trained Havant would be better of with some rain. Last year's champion juvenile filly, Hoooray is also in the mix, as are the two top class Irish fillies Misty For Me and Laughing Lashes. Throw in Royal Ascot winner Maqaasid and a bunch of potentially big improvers and we have quite a puzzle to solve.


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
QIPCO 1,000 GUINEAS (G1)

Newmarket 1 May 2011 – 1 mile Turf

Runners resented with Globeform, sire, trainer,
jockey. Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds.
One length equals 2lb over this distance


119 - HOORAY (Invincible Spirit) Sir M Prescott / S Sanders
113P - HAVANT (Halling) Sir M Stoute / R Moore
113p - MEMORY (Danehill Dancer) R Hannon / R Hughes
111p - MISTY FOR ME (Galileo) A O'Brien / P Smullen
110p - LAUGHING LASHES (Mr Greeley) Mrs J Harrington / F Berry
109p - MOONLIGHT CLOUD (Invincible Spirit) F Head / D Bonilla
108p - MAQAASID (Green Desert) J Gosden / R Hills
108 - TOGETHER (Galileo) A O'Brien / C O'Donoghue
104 - BAREFOOT LADY (Footstepsinthesand) R Fahey / P Hanagan
102p - CAPE DOLLAR (Cape Cross) Sir M Stoute / R Mullen
101p - BLUE BUNTING (Dynaformer) M Al Zarooni / L Dettori
101p - I LOVE ME (Cape Cross) A Balding / J Fortune
101 - NOVA HAWK (Hawk Wing) R Collet / S Pasquier
100 - SHOW RAINBOW (Haafdh) M Channon / N Callan
..99p - MAKE A DANCE (Empire Maker) B Hills / M Hills
..96p - EMPOWERING (Encosta De Lago) A O'Brien / J O'Brien
..96p - IMMORTAL VERSE (Pivotal) R Collet / C-P Lemaire
..96p - ELSHABAKIYA (Diktat) C Brittain / P Robinson
..87 - THE SHREW (Dansili) J Gosden / W Buick


GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS
 
A:   15 MOONLIGHT CLOUD
B:   6 HAVANT
C:   10 LAUGHING LASHES, 13 MEMORY, 14 MISTY FOR ME
D:   7 HOORAY, 12 MAQAASID
 
 
GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS
 
HOORAY
was the top rated juvenile filly in Europe last year, when she progressed with every run and signed off with an impressive 4 1/2-length win over Rimth in the Cheveley Park Stakes (G1) at Newmarket in October – Maqaasid was back in third. Racing over the last 6 furlongs of the Guineas trip, Hooray was in a class of her own that day, and returned Globeform 119 in the process. It was her third success on the bounce, following wins in the Lowther Stakes (G2) at York and  Sirenia Stakes (G3) at Kempton Park. All three races were over six furlongs, however, and stamina is a worry as she goes for classic glory over a stiff mile on her seasonal debut. With a big field virtually guaranteed, the pace should be strong and winning this Guineas will require a fair amount of stamina. Hooray is bred to stay the trip, but she was a speedy two-year-old and may not possess enough stamina. Still, her form is second to none and she must be respected. Rimth, her distant runner-up in the Cheveley Park, gave Hooray's form a boost as she won the Dubai Duty Free Fred Darling Stakes (G3) at Newbury in April. She is set for the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (G1) at Longchamp in two weeks' time.
 
 
HAVANT, with two wins from two runs in her first season, looks a very exciting prospect for the new campaign. She has been favourite in the 1,000 Guineas betting for some time but connections have been worried by the lack of rain in Newmarket this spring. Havant is also prominent in the betting for the Oaks, though the Guineas mile is unlikely to be too short for this talented daughter of Halling. She won nicely on her debut at the July course in Newmarket in late August – despite not being quite ready – and showed significant improvement to win the Oh So Sharp Stakes (G3) on the Rowley Mile course five weeks later. Havant was a slow starter that day, but made up ground and came with an excellent finish to grab the lead with over a furlong to go. From there on and in, it was a one-horse affair. Havant opened up a clear lead to win by 3 Ό lengths from the Irish trained contender Look At Me. There was another 1 Ύ lengths back to the third placed Khawlah, winner of the UAE Derby (G2) this year. Havant needed only two outings to stamp herself as one of the best in her division last year, and there is so much to like about this filly. She is a May foal, just the type to progress with age, and she holds a leading chance in this classic. Any rain prior to May 1 would be in her favour. 
 
 
MEMORY was ante-post favourite for this year's 1,000 Guineas already last July, after having won her first three races in tremendous style, but a surprise defeat on her fourth outing – in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (G1) in Ireland – cast some doubt over her future prospects. Had she just been an early developing sort, one who would be caught up with at three? Or was her sixth place behind Misty For Me at The Curragh simply a bad day, one best forgotten? Hard to say but Memory has come back in favour with punters in recent weeks and dropped gradually in the betting to around 6/1. Judged on her best juvenile form, that is a fair price. She looked potentially top class when winning the 6-furlong Albany Stakes (G3) at Royal Ascot in June, and again when delivering a strong last-to-first move to take the Cherry Hinton Stakes (G2) over the same distance at Newmarket in July. Memory got up to beat Margot Did by a head at Ascot and she swept by Soraaya for a comfortable 3/4-length win at Newmarket. Hooray, who had yet to hit top form, was third in the Cherry Hinton. Her subsequent exploits, and Soraaya's win in the Princess Margaret Stakes (G3) next time out (from Margot Did), served as timely reminders of how good Memory's form was. The Richard Hannon trained filly is without doubt an interesting contender. She is bred to stay a mile, though not much further, and her running style last year suggests that the Guineas trip will suit her.  Hannon's team have had an excellent start to the season.
 
MISTY FOR ME, a Galileo filly out of an unraced half-sister to champion juvenile Fasliyev, captured two Group Ones last year. She was not lacking in experience when winning the one-mile Prix Marcel Boussac (G1) at Longchamp in October. It was her fourth start and she looked very professional. Clashing with the French favourite Helleborine – a flashy winner of the Prix d'Aumale (G3) on her previous start – Misty For Me put up a game performance to beat that filly by a length. She raced prominently throughout, was headed by Helleborine a furlong from home but rallied to regain command 100 yards from the post and win well. The once raced Rainbow Springs was 3 lengths further adrift in third. Misty For Me had led from start to finish in the 7-furlong Moyglare Stud Stakes (G1) at The Curragh in late August. She won by a length from Laughing Lashes, who had beaten Misty For Me by the same margin when they filled first and second also in the Debutante Stakes (G2) over 7 furlongs at the same course three weeks earlier. Misty For Me's greatest asset is her versatility – she has run well on good to firm, soft and very soft ground and this Ballydoyle filly may be in for another good campaign.
 
LAUGHING LASHES is closely matched with Misty For Me and also holds a live chance in this classic. She was chasing Misty For Me throughout in the Moyglare Stud, but could never get on terms with her rival. She did not race subsequently, thus wrapping her juvenile campaign up with one win and three second places. Laughing Lashes should stay a mile at three. She may be at her best with some give in the ground.
 
MOONLIGHT CLOUD moved up sharply on the Guineas ranking last month, when she outpointed the heavy favourite Helleborine in the Prix d'Imprudence (G3) at Maisons-Laffitte outside Paris. This trial, run over a straight 7-furlong trip, has been a good guide to the 1,000 Guineas over the years and Moonlight Cloud probably deserves to be favourite, or at least joint-favourite, for the big race at Newmarket on May 1. She led every step of the way at Maisons-Laffitte, and quickened away from the front to beat Helleborine (who had every chance) easily by 2 lengths. Moonlight Cloud, a stable companion to Goldikova, looks potentially a big improver. She raced three times last year, and was thought good enough to take on the boys on her final outing, in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere (G1) over 7 furlongs at the 'Arc' meeting. The very soft ground was not to her liking but Moonlight Cloud still ran well for fourth place, 3 ½ lengths behind the unbeaten colt Wootton Bassett. She actually went off favourite in the Lagardere, following a smooth 6-length win against males over the same course and distance a month earlier.  Moonlight Cloud is a half-sister to Cedar Mountain (Galileo), who won the Round Table Handicap (LR) over 1 Ύ miles at Hollywood Park as a 5-year-old. She will have no trouble staying the Guineas mile.
 
MAQAASID, an impressive winner of the Queen Mary Stakes (G3) over 5 furlongs at Royal Ascot last summer, looks way too big in the early betting for the 1,000 Guineas. Generally available at 25-1, the John Gosden trained filly can be backed at 33-1 in places. That is actually bigger than what was on offer after her win at Ascot some ten months ago, and it makes little sense. Okay, she failed to win again but things did not quite work out for Maqaasid in two subsequent starts and she still ran sound races in defeat. She was always travelling extremely well when beating the Irish trained favourite Meow by a neck in the Queen Mary and she subsequently ran fourth and third to Hooray in the Lowther Stakes (G2) at York and Cheveley Park Stakes (G1) at Newmarket – where she had a troubled run and was also given too much to do. Maqaasid was beaten 5 Ύ lengths that day but could have been closer. Since these races were over 6 furlongs, some questioned her stamina. Maqaasid was sharp over five at Ascot, though her pedigree says she may well stay a mile. Her dam, the Storm Cat filly Eshaadeh, ran only twice but she is closely related to Ghanaati, winner of the 1,000 Guineas two years ago. This is also the family of Nashwan, Unfuwain and Nayef, so there is plenty of stamina to be found in Maqaasid's line. She shaped well when finishing a close third to Barefoot Lady in the Nell Gwyn Stakes (G3) here at Newmarket in mid-April, when conceding 3lb all round. In an open looking Guineas, she is well worth a small each-way bet at 33s. 
 
MAKE A DANCE, a daughter of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Empire Maker out of a mare who stayed 1 Ό miles, is an interesting longshot for this Guineas. Her pedigree points to further than a mile but she was an impressive maiden winner over 7 furlongs at Newmarket last October (beating Vita Lika by 4 lengths) and there is probably a lot of improvement in this filly.
 
 
CONCLUSION
 
MOONLIGHT CLOUD
looks the best option. She has three important plus points; she will like the ground, she has a solid prep race win under her belt and she has experience from a Group One contest against the boys last year. Freddie Head's challenger has yet to try this distance but she is bred to stay further than a mile and stamina should not be a problem. Back her with the bookmakers, not on the Tote, as French punters bet into the UK Tote Pool these days. They pressed Makfi down to 12-1 on the Tote last year, while he paid 33-1 with the bookmakers.
 
HAVANT is the potentially biggest improver and a clear second choice. The firm ground is the only reason Moonlight Cloud gets preference, as Havant is probably a better filly in due course. She is certainly one to bear in mind for the Oaks and the 25-1 on offer about Havant winning both the Guineas and Oaks is well worth taking (Ladbrokes). 
 
MEMORY showed form right up with the best last year, when she also impressed on the July course (very similar to the Rowley Mile in nature) and she comes from a stable in fine form. MISTY FOR ME seems to act on any ground and also has excellent juvenile form in the book, but it is questionable how much this lightly built filly might improve at three. LAUGHING LASHES makes as much appeal, and is another live chance from Ireland.
 
RECOMMENDED BETS
 
WIN: MOONLIGHT CLOUD
 
8 EXACTAS
 
A:  HAVANT / MOONLIGHT CLOUD reversed / boxed
B:  MOONLIGHT CLOUD to beat Laughing Lashes, Memory, Misty For Me
C:  HAVANT to beat Laughing Lashes, Memory, Misty For Me


ANTE-POST BETS

Havant to win 1,000 Guineas & Oaks at 25-1 (Ladbrokes)

Win double:

Moonlight Cloud to win 1,000 Guineas at 9-2
Havant to win the Oaks at 6-1





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