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Santa Anita Derby: Jaycito also out, race looks weak

by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2011-04-10 06:17:33 (First published: 2011-04-02 08:00:14 )


Santa Anita:

<The impressive San Felipe Stakes winner Premier Pegasus would have been a strong favorite for the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on Saturday but a hairline fracture has ruled him out of the contest.

His San Felipe runner-up Jaycito would be the new favorite - but he also misses the race, due to a foot bruise. This Derby looks rather weak now, but it could be an excitingly close one. The gutsy Robert Lewis winner Anthony's Cross meets last year's CashCall Futurity winner Comma to the Top and this year's El Camino Real Derby winner Silver Medallion. Bob Baffert is left with Midnight Interlude - an impressive maiden winner and an interesting longshot.

GLOBEFORM RATINGS
SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1)

Santa Anita 9 April 2011 1 1/8 miles dirt

Runners presented with best Globeform, sire, trainer, jockey.
Globeform ratings are expressed in pounds. One length equals 2lb over this distance


112* - COMMA TO THE TOP (Bwana Charlie) P Miller / C Nakatani
108p - ANTHONY'S CROSS (Indian Charlie) E Harty / J Rosario
108p - SILVER MEDALLION (Badge of Silver) S Asmussen / G Gomez
100p - INDIAN WINTER (Indian Charlie) J Hollendorfer / P Valenzuela
..99 - QUAIL HILL (Candy Ride) D Hofmans / M Pedroza
..97p - BENCH POINTS (Bench Mark) T Yakteen / R Bejarano
..96p - MR. COMMONS (Artie Schiller) J Shirreffs / M Smith
..92 - OFFLEE WILD BOYS (Offlee Wild) S Miyadi / J Talamo
..?p - MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (War Chant) B Baffert / V Espinoza


*) Comma to the Top: Globeform 112 in 2010 / GF 99 in 2011


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

ANTHONY'S CROSS
, who ran well in all his races at two but needed four attempts to break his maiden, has maturted this year. After running third, beaten a long way, behind Tapizar in the Sham Stakes (G3) in January, he moved well forward to win the Robert Lewis Stakes (G2) the following month. Anthony's Cross raced in the first two throughout in this 9-furlong contest, and he fought back gamely when challenged by Riveting Reason. Only a nose separated them at the wire, as the third placed Quail Hill was 4 lengths behind. This form is a bit hard to assess, not least since the heavy favorite Tapizar went wrong and finished only fifth but there can be no doubt that Anthony's Cross is going in the right dierction. He has a good chance of hitting the board.

SILVER MEDALLION, a May foal and probably open to more improvement than most of these, will be making his first start on dirt following stakes wins on turf and Tapeta on his most recent starts. He landed the one-mile Eddie Logan Stakes over the lawn at Santa Anita on December 31, by racing prominently all the way and fending off Ten Devils to win by half a length. A trip to Golden Gate Fields in February resulted in a game 1 1/4-length win over Jakeman in the El Camino Real Derby (G3), run over 8.5 furlongs. Comma to the Top was fourth, beaten 4 lengths. Given a more patient ride that day, Silver Medallion saw out the trip well, and he is likely to appreciate running further. If he takes to dirt, he can be in the mix.

This is a weak edition of the Santa Anita Derby. The top two choices do not inspire all that much for a bet. So why not take a shot at Bob Baffert's second string, the impressive maiden winner Midnight Interlude. This son of War Chant made all to win by 8 1/2 lengths over a mile here in March. That was his third start, and Midnight Interlude has been progressing steadily since making his debut in January. Open to further improvement, he is bred to stay this trip and could well cause an upset.

MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE WON @ 13-1



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GLOBEFORM RATINGS
2010 SANTA ANITA DERBY


1 - Sidney's Candy / Globeform 119p

2 - Setsuko / GF 109p

3 - Lookin At Lucky / GF 106p

Margins: 4 , 1 , 1


GLOBEFORM'S KENTUCKY DERBY DAY SPECIAL OPENS APRIL 26








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