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The Schaefer: Blame returns
by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2010-05-14 05:29:34 (First published: 2010-05-13 08:15:17 )




Pimlico Saturday: Nine runners are set for the William Donald Schaefer (G3), and the star attraction in this 8.5-furlong event is clearly going to be Blame, making his first start since landing the prestigious Clark Handicap (G2) at Churchill Downs last November.

GLOBEFORM RANKING
THE WILLIAM D. SCHAEFER (G3)

Pimlico 15 May 2010 – 8.5 furlongs dirt

Top ranked horse on 100, with others ranked down
in pounds. One length equals about 2lb over this distance.
Horses presented with sire, best Globeform rating / jockey

A “p” after the rating indicates improvement expected.
A “P” indicates significant improvement expected.

100 – BLAME (Arch) GF 119p / G Gomez
..97 – BULLSBAY (Tiznow) GF 116 Sep09 / J Leparoux
..91 – FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus) GF 110 / T Thompson
..87 – TIMBER RESERVE (Forest Camp) GF 106 / J Castellano
..85 – UNDERSTATEMENT (Distorted Humor) GF 110 / J Velazquez
...? – I KNOW WHY (Whywhywhy) GF ? / E Rodriguez
...? – NO ADVANTAGE (Posse) GF ? / M Chaves
..81 – EDGEWATER (Lion Heart) GF 100 / T Dunkelberger
..75 – INDIAN DANCE (Indian Charlie) GF 100 / L Garcia

GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

Blame looks sure
to win on his come-back here. His late seasonal debut was always the plan and is no cause for concern. Ending last year on a progressive note, the son of Arch could develop into a serious Grade One perfomer at four, and he has little to fear on Saturday. Having produced Globeform 119p when landing the 9-furlong Clark Handicap (G2) at Churchill Downs last fall, he can win the Schaefer without bringing his absolute best form to the table. Bullsbay would be a threat if running up to his best, but that is quite a big “if” following his dull effort at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. He trailed in last, a long way behind Arson Squad in the Alysheba Stakes (G3), where Flying Private was a game runner-up. Flying Private can be an Exacta / Trifecta filler once more. He ran the race of his life at this track 12 months ago, taking fourth to Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness Stakes (G1). That form, beaten just 4 lengths by the top filly, was worth GF 116 but it is more realistic to use GF 110 when assessing Flying Private (he ran to GF 107 last time). The Wayne Lukas trainee has finished second in 6 of his 16 races and won just twice.

The pace scenario is likely to be to Blame’s liking. He needs solid fractions to be seen to full effect over this (bit short for him) distance. He will have three likely speed horses (all to his inside) and the race is going to set up nicely for Albert Stall’s colt. He beat Grade One winners Misremembered and Einstein in the Clark and Blame really is an exciting prospect. If the 8-5 chalked up on the morning line is close to reality – we must make him a maximum win bet.

Bullsbay, beaten more than five lengths when seventh to Blame in the Clark, is a bit hard to fancy off his flop in the Alysheba, but he can’t be totally dismissed either, having last year won the Whitney Handicap (G1) – from Macho Again – and run third in the Woodward Stakes (G1) – behind Rachel Alexandra and Macho Again. He is drawn in stall one, offering him the opportunity of a ground saving trip, and 8.5 furlongs suits him really well. Let’s give him another chance, and use him in the Tri plan.

Understatement is the best of the speed horses but the conditions of this event means that Todd Pletcher’s charge has to give 6lb to all but Indian Dance – who has no chance at these weights.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 7 BLAME
B: 9 FLYING PRVATE
C: 1 BULLSBAY



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