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Preakness: Super spot for Saver
by Geir Stabell (geir.stabell@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2010-05-14 17:34:14 (First published: 2010-05-11 09:56:41 )


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GLOBEFORM_RACECARD_PREAKNESS_DAY_2010


Jockey Calvin Borel predicts that his partner Super Saver will 'go all the way' in the Triple Crown Series, and the Kentucky Derby winner tops our ratings going into the second leg, the 135th Preakness Stakes (G1) in Baltimore on Saturday.


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
135th PREAKNESS STAKES (G1)

Pimlico 15 May 2010 – 9.5 furlongs dirt

Contenders presented with best Globeform rating, sire,
GF ratings achieved last three runs (l-to-r), rider, post

A “p” after the rating indicates improvement expected.
A “P” indicates significant improvement expected.


121 - SUPER SAVER (Maria’s Mon) .....116p – 111p – 111 - 121.....C Borel 8
116 - LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) .....112p – 116p – 106p – 106p.....M Garcia 7
115 - PADDY O’PRADO (El Prado) .....?p– 103p – 105 - 115.....K Desormeaux 10
113 - PLEASANT PRINCE (Indy King)..... 96 – 113p – 94 - 95.....J Leparoux 3
111 - CARACORTADO (Cat Dreams) .....110p - 111 – 105p.....P Atkinson 9
110 - DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) .....102p – 108p – 110 - 105.....G Gomez 12
109 - JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) .....109 – 104p – 105 - 85.....M Smith 6
108 - AIKENITE (Yes It’s True)..... 98p – 88 – 107p.....J Castellano 1
108 - SCHOOLYARD DREAMS (Stephen Got Even) ..... 103 - 108 – 102.....E Coa 2
107 - YAWANNA TWIST (Yonaguska)..... ?p – 105p – 107p.....E Prado 5
105 - FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even)..... 105p - 100p – 103p.....R Dominguez 11
104 - NORTHERN GIANT (Giant’s Causeway)..... 104 – 101 – 80.....T Thompson 4


2009 PREAKNESS STAKES (G1)

1 – RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d’Oro) C Borel / Globeform 118p
2 – MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone) M Smith / GF 121p
3 – MUSKET MAN (Yonaguska) E Coa / GF 120

Bet at Twin Spires!


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

SUPER SAVER
has so much going for him as he tries to follow up on his game win at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, and he really looks a ‘banker’ in the Preakness. The slight drop in distance may actually be in his favour, and his Derby success cannot be put down to the sloppy track – as Super Saver had produced excellent form over fast tracks previously, most notably when making all to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) over 8.5 furlongs at Churchill Downs last fall. He can set the pace or rate just off it – and he will be very hard to beat at Pimlico. With the fast finishing Derby runner-up Ice Box out of the way, Paddy O’Prado (beaten 2 ¾ lenths in third) unlikely to be suited by this shorter trip over a more speed favoring track, and Lookin At Lucky falling into the same bracket, it seems all clear for another great day for Super Saver.

Prior to winning the first leg of the Triple Crown, the son of Maria’s Mon ran a solid race for second to Line of David in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. Conceding 4lb, Super Saver went down by just a neck – and produced the best Globeform rating in the race, as was the case also in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) back in March. Super Saver was giving 6lb to the race-fit winner when beaten half a length by Odysseus at Tampa Bay.

Super Saver was rated above Lookin At Luck already as a juvenile, having earned Globeform 116p for his easy five-length win over William’s Kitten in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). That was one of the best performances in the juvenile division last year. Right now, he sits at the top of the rankings of three-year-olds in training, and in all probability that will be the case also come Saturday evening.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY was badly drawn in post one at Churchill Downs. He is much better than his sixth place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1) would suggest. Quite why he went off favorite on May 5 is a bit of a mystery, as the rail post has a terrible record in the Derby – and the rain did not exactly make his task any easier. After a bit of trouble early on, he did well to stay on from the back to pass the winning post 7 lengths behind the winner, Super Saver. Lookin At Lucky was beaten 4 ¼ lengths by Paddy O’Prado, who got up for third after also having been some way behind the early pace. Paddy O’Prado enjoyed a better trip at Churchill, as he broke from post ten, and Lookin At Lucky has a good chance of turning that piece of form around. One worry with Lookin At Lucky is; he is coming off two tough races now. His Derby experience was not exactly wonderful, nor was his run in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) two starts back, and his win over Noble’s Promise when he made his seasonal debut in the Rebel Stakes (G2) in March was not an easy one (Dublin third, beaten 3 lengths). Baffert’s colt is not a fresh horse.

Solid as he is, Lookin At Lucky has seemed a bit one-paced in his races. He went off 4/5 favorite for the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in California last month and was, whichever way you look at it, somewhat disappointing in third, 6 lengths behind Sidney’s Candy. Lookin At Lucky was hampered on the home turn, when squeezed up between the rail and the tiring Who’s Up. He was in a good spot up to that point, just a few lengths off the pace. Without the mishap the Baffert runner would have been in an even better spot but it is also well worth noting that, after the scrimmaging had cleared, he was still in front of Setsuko. Lookin At Lucky actually didn’t lose that much ground. He ran below form, simple as that. Finishing such a margin behind Sidney’s Candy, and running about three lengths slower than Setsuko (who has disappointed since) down the home straight, was far from brilliant.


PADDY O’PRADO, having been beaten 4 ¼ lengths by Stately Victor when runner-up in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), was the big improver in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The Dale Romans trained son of El Prado, not dismissed at 12-1 in the betting, produced a game finish from off the pace to take third, 2 ¾ lengths behind Super Saver and only a neck behind the runner-up, Ice Box. With no obvious speed in this Preakness field, Paddy O’Prado must lie closer to the early action if he is to have a chance. And there is no reason to doubt that he will be able to do so. He raced in the first two all the way both in the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) on turf at Gulfstream Park in March (won by 2 ½ lengths from Dean’s Kitten) and the Blue Grass (G1) on Polytrack at Keeneland in April (second to Stately Victor). Interestingly, the Kentucky Derby was Paddy O’Prado’s first run on dirt since his debut last July (badly beaten in the slop at Churchill). How he takes to a dry dirt track is anybody’s guess, but he seems versatile and has a good chance of hitting the board again. He was, however, not much more than a length behind Super Saver at the top of the lane at Churchill (admittedly marginally checked soon after) and it is hard to see him troubling the favorite.

HURRICANE IKE has been ruled out with injury, which was a shame. His easy win in the one-mile Derby Trial Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs three weeks ago made hiom an intriguing prospect, though one with suspect stamina credentials. He had been third to Quiet Invader in a 6.5-furlong allowance heat at Santa Anita first time up this term, and second to Eightyfiveinafifty in the 7-furlong Bay Shore Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct, and moving up to a mile clearly suited him in the Derby Trial. As did the muddy track. He was in second early on, and went on to dominate for a 2 ¾-length win over AIKENITE – who finished well from off the pace. This performance put Aikenite back up to the same level of form that earned him fifth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He might be improving still.

PLEASANT PRINCE, unwisely pushed into the Derby Trial in an effort to get him to the Derby, was third behind Hurricane Ike and Aikenite – beaten almost ten lengths by the winner over the muddy track. He ran so much better when beaten just a nose by eventual Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box in the Florida Derby (G1) two starts back, but Pleasant Prince was badly beaten also in the Blue Grass (G1) and his two most recent starts have thus been well below par. He may have peaked at Gulfstream in March and this will be his seventh start of the year. Some champions have less racing than that throughout the entire season.

CARACORTADO is more interesting, when we try to get the right numbers on the Trifecta and Superfecta plans. He bypassed the Kentucky Derby and comes here both as a fresh horse and as a horse open to improvement. He was last seen in action when seventh to Sidney’s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 3, when he suffered from a rough trip and never got into the race. He won the Robert Lewis Memorial (G2) over 8.5 furlongs at Santa Anita in February and was a good third to Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe (G2) over the same trip in March, beaten 2 lengths while spotting the winner 2lb.


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