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Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic: Top quartet very close
by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2009-11-06 02:47:44 (First published: 2009-10-28 06:04:39 )


Santa Anita Friday

With superstar Zenyatta going for the Classic proper, the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic (G1) looks a tricky race to handicap.

Eight names, are on the list after the pre-entry stage, and it is hard to rule any of them out.

Careless Jewel, Cocoa Beach, Music Note and Zenyatta's barnmate Life Is Sweet top the ratings, with very little between the four.


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
BREEDERS’ CUP LADIES CLASSIC (G1)

Santa Anita 6 November 2009 – 9 furlongs Pro-Ride

Purse: $2 million

Contenders presented with best Globeform ratings,
sires, trainers, GF ratings last four starts (l-to-r), riders


121 – COCOA BEACH (Doneraile Court) / S bin Suroor / GF 121 in 2008 / 110p – 111 – 113 / R Migliore
120 – CARELESS JEWEL (Tapit) / Josie Carroll / ?p – 117p – 120p – 119p / R Landry
120 – MUSIC NOTE (A.P. Indy) / S bin Suroor / 96 – 120 – 120 / J Castellano
119 – LIFE IS SWEET (Storm Cat) / J Shirreffs / 117p – 119p – 118p – 109p – 107 – 111p / G Gomez
115 – RAINBOW VIEW (Dynaformer) / J Gosden / 110 – 111 – 115 – 111 / J Leparoux
114 – PROVISO (Dansili) / R Frankel / 101 – 113 – 113 – 114p / J Velazquez
114 – LETHAL HEAT (Unusual Heat) / B Abrams / 109 – 110 – 109 – 114 / A Solis
111 – MUSHKA (Empire Maker) / Bill Mott / ? - 112 - 110 - 111 / K Desormeaux


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

COCOA BEACH
, a game second to Zenyatta last year, when she also won the Beldame Stakes (G1) over a sloppy dirt track at Belmont and the Matriarch Stakes (G1) over a firm turf course at Hollywood Park, is the top rated runner in this year’s Ladies Classic – assuming Zenyatta runs in the Classic. Cocoa Beach’s best form would make her really hard to beat in this race, but the trouble is that we have not seen her best for some time. Having raced four times in 2009, the daughter of Doneraile Court shows steady improvement in her results, though is some way below GF 121. She did shape a bit better last time out, with an even finish for third in the Lady’s Secret (G1) over this course in October, beaten only by Zenyatta and Lethal Heat. That was a touch better than her previous runs in ’09 but not good enough to make her the selection this weekend. She may win and she may finish off the board, it’s anybody’s guess.

CARELESS JEWEL, a high class 3yo with 5 straight wins to her name, and Cocoa Beach’s barnmate Muic Note make much more sense. Careless Jewel has enjoey easy wins in the Delaware Oaks (G2), Alabama Stakes (G1) and Cotillion Stakes (G2) in her last three starts, and she is more likely to improve than the experienced Music Note. Also, Julie Carrol’s star looks more likely to relish the trip. Nine furlongs at Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride is not a stiff test of stamina, but it will be right up her alley to set the pace here – and her rider should have a tactical advantage, knowing that she stays further. Careless Jewel won the 10-furlong Alabama, over a good dirt track at Saratoga, by 11 lengths from Milwaukee Appeal. She stays so well, and Landry can therefore kick on early and take the sting out of some of her speedier rivals. Such a scenario may set the race up for Life is Sweet but let’s deal with MUSIC NOTE first. She won the 7-furlong Ballerina Stakes (G1) at Saratoga (sloppy track) in some style, beating Indian Blessing and Informed Decision by a wide margin (both won big next out). Music Note followed up in the 9-furlong Beldame Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park in early October, notching her seventh career win by beating Unbridled Belle readily by 2 ¼ lengths. Unbridled Belle also won next time she ran, so this form looks solid enough. Music Note races prominently, and should be close to Careless Jewel throughout. She has a good chance.

LIFE IS SWEET is the one who can run by them all at the finish if the early pace is too strong. She must be respected, despite having lost her last four races. Her life has been sweet, that’s for sure, but it’s not easy to live in the shadow of a stable companion like Zenyatta. One of Life is Sweet’s best races was her impressive off-the-pace success in the Santa Margarita Handicap (G1) over this course and distance in March. Blowing past her rivals, she won by 2 ½ lengths from Santa Teresita and recorded Globeform 119 in the process. Life is Sweet has been in some tough spots since, and she never runs a bad race. One can argue that she suffered from ‘pilot error’ both in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) in July (third to Rail Trip) and the Lady’s Secret (G1) at Santa Anita in October (fourth to Zenyatta). Life is Sweet was given far too much to do on both occasions. She loves a fast-run race, she is 3-for-4 over this course and both of her runs at the distance have sent her to the winners’ circle. It could well happen again on Friday.

PROVISO was disqualified from her ‘win’ in the Spinster Stakes (G1) at Keeneland and the ex-French filly gets a lot of attention off that US debut. She was by far the best, beating fellow Ladies Classic contender Mushka by 1 ¼ lengths while failing to keep straight at the business end of the contest. Now, is that form good enough to win the Ladies Classic? No, it is not. Next question; can Proviso improve? Quite possibly, though a ‘bounce second time off the plane’ could just as well happen. She’s hard to place - and needs to be considered for Trifecta and Superfecta players.


GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 1 CARELESS JEWEL
B: 2 LIFE IS SWEET, 7 MUSIC NOTE
C: 5 PROVISO, 6 COCOA BEACH

RECOMMENDED BETS


WIN: 1 Careless Jewel

4 EXACTAS

A: 1 with 2, 7 (2)
B: 2, 7 with 1 (2)

10 TRIFECTAS

A: 1 with 2, 7 with 2, 7 (2)
B: 1 with 2, 7 with 5, 6 (4)
C: 1 with 5, 6 with 2, 7 (4)

SUPERFECTAS

A: 1 with 2, 7 with 2, 7 with 5, 8 (4)
B: 1 with 2, 7 with 5, 8 with 2, 7 (4)
C: 1 with 5, 8 with 2, 7 with 2, 7 (4)

BC SPECIAL DAILY DOUBLE

LEG 1: 1 Careless Jewel
LEG 2: 4 Zenyatta



2008 BREEDERS’ CUP LADIES CLASSIC (G1)

1 – ZENYATTA (Street Cry) J Shirreffs / M Smith - Globeform 127p

2 – Cocoa Beach - GF 121p
3 – Music Note - GF 117

Won by 1 ½ lengths, 1 ½ lengths







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