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Gold Cup: Yeats going for historic win
by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2009-06-18 00:22:41 (First published: 2009-06-15 13:38:22 )


Royal Ascot Thursday: Quite a few will be betting against him, but absolutely everyone will be cheering for him, if Yeats proves the strongest yet again in the Ascot Gold Cup (G1).

Having won the last three editions of this unique stamina test, the Aidan O’Brien trained star will be writing racing history if he lands the spoils on Ladies Day. Based on last year’s form he is a certainty, though based on his performance first time out this year, well, he would look like a favourite in danger. His seasonal debut was very dull. That said, Yeats has bounced back from defeat before and when on song he is a hard nut to crack.


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
THE ASCOT GOLD CUP (G1)

Royal Ascot 18 June 2009 – 2 ½ miles turf

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire
GF ratings achieved most recents starts, rider


Jockey symbols:
# = Same rider as last race
^ = Better rider than last race

126 – YEATS (Sadler’s Wells) 126 in 2008 / J Murtagh ^
120 – EASTERN ANTHEM (Singspiel) 120 – 0 / tba
118 – GEORDIELAND (Johann Quatz) 118 last start / S Kelly #
118 – PATKAI (Indian Ridge) 118p – 113p / R Moore #
115 – VERACITY (Lomitas) 115p – 110p / L Dettori #
114 – CENTENNIAL (Dalakhani) 110p – 0 / J Fortune #
113 – TASTAHIL (Singspiell) 10 – 113 – 109 / R Hills #
111 – HINDU KUSH (Sadler’s Well) 111 last start / J Crowley
110 – SAGARA (Sadler’s Wells) 110 – 110 - 100 / T Durcan #
110 – WASHINGTON IRVING (Montjeu) 110 in 2008 / 0 - 100 / P Mulrennan #


GLOBEFORM NOTES

126 – YEATS (Sadler’s Wells) Going for historic 4th win, much the best, but dull prep run
120 - EASTERN ANTHEM (Singspiel) Impressive off-the-pace winner 1 ½ m., the ‘dark horse’
118 – GEORDIELAND (Johann Quatz) Never been better than last time out, beat Patkai, Sandown
118 – PATKAI (Indian Ridge) But was Patkai fully wound up? Betting said yes, paddock said no
115 – VERACITY (Lomitas) Stamina is his forte, and he could improve, Dettori’s obvious choice
114 – CENTENNIAL (Dalakhani) Has been shaping like a stayer but probably not up to this
113 – TASTAHIL (Singspiell) Game and conistent, unlikely to improve enough to figure here
111 – HINDU KUSH Surprised a few in Ireland last time out and never better, still needs more
110 – SAGARA Used to be near top class over shorter, nice staying races last year, top rider
110 – WASHINGTON IRVING Ex-Ballydoyle runner stepping up in distance, an outsider


ANALYSIS

Yeats
is by far the best in this field but he performed way below his true form on his seasonal debut in Ireland, and there must be a question mark over him now. Can he win the Gold Cup for a fourth time? Of course he can, don’t forget how he bounced back from a poor run in France last autumn. Any horse can be excused one bad run, especially one that has proved to be a champion so many times in the past. Should he be backed, or is this a Gold Cup where we are wise to keep our powder dry and just enjoy the race? It probably is, as it will be such a fantastic experience anyway if he pulls it off – with or without a bet.

One angle to take is simply to follow the money. Sure, there will be lots of sentimental bets going on Yeats, but most of those will be placed on the Tote. If the big players (read; big Irish players) go for him in the ring, then we can feel confident he comes here in great shape. If he drifts in the betting, one should take a step back, and perhaps look for an alternative.

Geordieland, beaten 5 lengths into second by Yeats last year, produced excellent form to beat the odds-on shot Patkai in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown Park on May 28. That was over 2 miles and the way he ran on one would not think Patkai has much of a chance of reversing the form over 2 ½ miles. There are other factors to consider, however. Patkai was deeply impressive in winning the Queen’s Vase at last year’s Royal Ascot, and he did not look fully wound up at Sandown. Perhaps he can hit back this week.

All of Godolphin’s three runners hold an each-way chance, but Dettori has opted for Veracity and it easy to understand why. This is an out and out stayer, who might improve considerably over 2 ½ miles.

A small exacta bet on Patkai and Geordieland to finish first and second makes some sense, as that is what will probanly happen if Yeats fails to fire.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: YEATS
B: GEORDIELAND, PATKAI
C: VERACITY

RECOMMENDED BETS

SMALL REVERSED EXACTA: Geordieland / Patkai



...........................................................................................................................................

GLOBEFORM RATINGS
THE RIBBLESDALE STAKES (G2)

Royal Ascot 18 June 2009 – 1 ½ miles turf

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire
GF ratings achieved most recents starts, rider


Jockey symbols:
# = Same rider as last race
^ = Better rider than last race

109 – TAKE THE HINT (Montjeu) 109p last start / J Fortune #
107 – FLYING CLOUD (Storming Home) ?P – 107p / L Dettori
..96 – LEOCORNO (Pivotal) 96P last start / R Moore
..96 – JULY JASMINE (Empire Maker) 96P last start / M Kinane
..94 – UVINZA (Bertolini) 94 last start / J Spencer #
..93 – MOOAKADA (Montjeu) ?P – 93p / R Hills #
..87 – FLAME OF GIBRALTAR (Rock Of Gibraltar) 80p – 87p / T Queally #
..83 – ANICE STELLATO (Dalakhani) 83p last start / N Callan
…? – TOTALLY DEVOTED (Seeking the Gold) ? - ? - 0 / J Murtagh ^
…? – IT’S DUBAI DOLLY (Dubai Destination) ? - ? - ? / W d’Avila #


GLOBEFORM NOTES

109 – TAKE THE HINT Lightly raced improver, this race has been the plan all along
107 – FLYING CLOUD Her form ties in well with some of the best fillies in France, big chance
..96 – LEOCORNO Visually impressive in handicap win at Sandown, beat moderate bunch though
..96 – JULY JASMINE Stayed on best of all behind Oaks runner-up Midday at Lingfield, interesting
..94 – UVINZA Filly who slammed her on last two starts lost Listed race last week, unlikely
..93 – MOOAKADA Her 2yo maiden win was impressive, same trainer as top rated, intriguing
..87 – FLAME OF GIBRALTAR Second to smart stbale companion debut, then won nicely, will stay
..83 – ANICE STELLATO Was 3 ½ lengths behind July Jasmine at Lingfield, hard to fancy
…? – TOTALLY DEVOTED A maiden from Ballydoyle, in a G2 at Royal Ascot…X
…? – IT’S DUBAI DOLLY Looks booked for last place


ANALYSIS

Take The Hint
bypassed the Oaks to go for this and continued progress would make her the one to beat. On can of course argue that she is the one to beat already, based on the form she produced to beat Three Moons in the Pretty Polly Stakes (LR) at Newmarket, but this Ribblesdale is very tricky – in that it has so many extremely lightly raced contenders. One or two of thhose lower down on the ratings can easily improve a lot, and betting on this race is not going to be done with any great confidence.

Flying Cloud, an ex-French performer running for Godolphin, has interesting form in the book. Having won both of her starts, she beat Excellent Girl and Board Meeting to land the Prix Cleopatre (G3) over 10.5 furlongs (2100 m.) at Saint-Cloud in May. Both those fillies have since run respectably behind the new French superstar Stacelita in G1 races, so one must fancy Flying Cloud against these rivals. ‘The boys in blue’ have not got off to the best of starts to this meeting, so perhaps we can get value in backing this filly.

July Jasmine caught the eye when running on from a long way back to take second in the Lingfield Oaks Trial (LR). She was beaten 6 lengths by Midday, but the latter is a high class performer and just lost out narrowly against Sariska in the Oaks (G1) on her next start. A big filly with plenty of scope, July Jasmine is just the type to improve considerably with more experience, and she is sure to stay the trip.

Leocorno, like July Jasmine trained by Sir Michael Stoute, has been a bit of a hype horse but she is classy, no doubt about that. She won for fun in a handicap at Sandown Park on her seasonal debut. The second and third in that race have both been well beaten in handicaps since though, and the form is a long way off what will be required to win a G2 at Royal Ascot. That said, Leocorno loked like she could have doubled her 5-length winning margin at Sandown, and she is an exciting prospect.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 3 FLYING CLOUD, 8 TAKE THE HINT
B: 5 JULY JASMINE, 6 LEOCORNO

RECOMMENDED BETS


WIN: Flying Cloud

6 TOTE EXACTAS

A: Flying Cloud & Take The Hint reversed (2 bets)
B: Flying Cloud or Take The Hint to beat July Jasmine or Leocorno (4 bets)







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