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Dubai Duty Free: Ramonti out, Literato switched
by Globeform Webmaster (webmaster@globeform.com) / globeform.com (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2008-03-27 08:10:27 (First published: 2008-03-15 08:36:11 )


Nad Al Sheba Saturday: Godolphin have been forced to take Ramonti out of the Dubai Duty Free (G1) on Saturday but they have switched Literato to this contest, as West Wind makes the opposite switch and runs in the Sheema Classic.

This turf race will be top class. Japan will be represented by the classic winning filly Vodka, as well as the recent Group One winner Admire Aura and top class European fillies Darjina and Finsceal Beo are also set to go. What a race!

RACE 5

GLOBEFORM RATINGS
THE DUBAI DUTY FREE (G1)

Nad Al Sheba 29 March 2008 – 1777 m. Turf

Horses presented with sires best Globeform
ratings achieved, and riders / (1 length = 2lbs)


123 – DARJINA (Zamindar) + filly / C Soumillon
123 – LITERATO (Kendor) + / L Dettori
118 – FINSCEAL BEO (Mr Greeley) filly / K Manning
118 – VODKA (Tanino Gimlet) filly / Y Take
121 – ADMIRE AURA (Agnes Tachyon) / K Ando
116 – MAJESTIC ROI (Street Cry) filly / R Hughes
120 – BULLISH LUCK (Royal Academy) / B Prebble
119 – CREACHADOIR (King’s Best) / K McEvoy
118 – ARCHIPENKO (Kingmambo) / K Shea
118 – FLORAL PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus) / G Mosse
118 – LINNGARI (Indian Ridge) / R Moore
113 – SEACHANGE (Cape Cross) / T Durcan
115 – JAY PEG (Camden Park) + / A Marcus
114 – NICONERO (Danzero) / C Williams
113 – NOTIONAL (In Excess) / G Gomez
111 – LORD ADMIRAL (El Prado) / M Kinane

A “+” after name of horse indicates improvement expected.

Fillies receive a 4.4lb sex allowance.
For direct comparison with males add 4.4 pounds to ratings.


Darjina must be the one to go for here, and why she is not the clear favourite with the bookmakers is hard to understand. The French filly was brilliant when on song last year, she proved good enough to beat Ramonti over a mile in France and she was an unlucky loser when third behind Good Ba Ba in Hong Kong in December – when the Hong Kong Mile was run at a pace that dis not suit this filly. She wants strong fractions early on, so she can come with her late kick from off the pace, and this big field should ensure an honest pace. Darjina is trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre, who has an excellent record with his shippers, and she has a top jockey on board.

Literato was for some time talked about as a potential World Cup runner for Godolphin, then his target was the Sheema Classic, and he now turns up in the Duty Free. Quite what to make of this is hard to say, but he is a high class horse who merits respect. The drop in distance may not be to his advantage, however, as he is more of a 10 to 12-furlong type. He was switched to this event when Ramonti dropped out, and the filly West Wind switched from the Duty Free to the Sheema. See more about Literato, who has won 9 of his 11 races, in his horse bio posted under ‘articles’ in this Dubai World Cup Day section.

Finceal Beo, from Irland, and Vodka, from Japan, are two very talented fillies – both in with a chance – but Admire Aura makes more appeal. With Finsceal Beo we have the question mark over whether she has trained on at four, after hard seasons at two and three (when she lost her form in the second half of the season). With Vodka, we have the doubt about the distance, as she would have been better suited by 12 furlongs.

Admire Aura was beaten into third behind Vodka in the Japanese Derby (G1) over 12 furlongs last year, but he turned tables when showing improved form to land the 11-furlong Kyoto Kinen (G2) in February. Beating 14 rivals, the son of Agnes Tachyon proved 1 Ό lengths too good for Admire Fuji, Silk Famous and Dream Passport (Vodka finished sixth). Admire Fuji was coming off a G3 win, while Silk Famous had been third in a previous edition of this event and Dream Passport is best known for running second to Deep Impact in the Japan Cup (G1) in 2006. This is quite solid form, Admire Aura seems to be improving, and he has also shown smart form over a mile. He must be considered, and the 10-1 flying around with English bookmakers looks too big. He is a good each-way bet.

Majestic Roi sits high on our ranking thanks to her sex allowance but her best rating, Globeform 116, has been seen just the once and it was probably a bit of a fluke – as she won the Sun Chariot Stakes (G1) against fillies and mares out of form towards the end of last year.

Bullish Luck has a chance on his best form but age is not eaxactly on his side these days, and Creachadoir should be given more respect. He was very solid in top class mile races for his Irish connections last year and impressed when winning on his first start for Godolphin in the autumn (after a layoff). Creachadoir is very game and honest, and he has been pointed at this event all along. It would come as no surprise to see him in the top three.

Also capable of making an impact are Archipenko (unless he takes a bounce after that big effort at the Carnival), Linngari (if he gets a strong pace) and Floral Pegasus (if translating Sha Tin form to Nad Al Sheba). It is hard to see either win this Duty Free though. It will take a world class runner to take this prize.


CONCLUSION

Darjina at 5-1
is a very, very tempting bet here. She showed a lot of class at three, she has ticks in all the right boxes when it comes to ground, distance, trainer and rider. She is a likely improver and she is drawn close to the Godolphin pair she has a good starting point. Admire Aura is the each-way bet at 10-1. Coming off a career best effort, the Japanese runner has been underrated by the bookmakers.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 11 DARJINA
B: 10 LITERATO
C: 5 ADMIRE AURA, 9 CREACHADOIR

BETTING PLAN


WIN: 11 Darjina

6 EXACTAS

A: 10 and 11 boxed / reversed (2)
B: 11 with 5, 9 (2)
C: 5, 9 with 11 (2)

6 TRIFECTAS

A: 11 with 10 with 5, 9 (2)
B: 11 with 5, 9 with 10 (2)
C: 11 with 5, 9 with 5, 9 (2)

96 SUPERFECTAS

A: 10, 11 with 10, 11 with 5, 9 with All 12 (48)
B: 10, 11 with 10, 11 with All 12 with 5, 9 (48)






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