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Hardwicke Stakes: Scorpion penalised
by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Published: 2007-06-23 05:11:44


Royal Ascot Sat: Scorpion is back to form after his Group One win at Epsom and he looks the one to beat in the 12-furlong Hardwicke Stakes (G2) on the final day of the royal meeting.

Should he be such a very short priced favourite though? Probably not. Yes, he is the best horse in this field but he is also shouldering a 5lb penalty. Weight is a great leveller in horseracing and this race is much more open that the betting seems to suggest.

GLOBEFORM RATINGS
HARDWICKE STAKES (G2)

Royal Ascot 23 June 2007 – 12 furlongs turf

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, rider

120 – SCORPION (Sadler’s Wells) / M Kinane
117 – MARAAHEL (Alzao) R Hills
116 – ADMIRAL’S CRUISE (A.P. Indy) J Fortune
112 – AKAREM (Kingmambo) / P Cosgrove
111 – LINAS SELECTION (Selkirk) K Darley
110 – DIAMOND QUEST (Saumarez) J Bowman
110 – MIGHTY (Pivotal) J Egan
110 – BLUE BAJAN (Montjeu) M Hills

Scorpion carries a 5lb penalty, deduct five pounds from his rating for direct comparison

Scorpion is coming off his career best effort and, if he runs up to that level of form again, he will be hard to beat. There are no guarantees, however, as this horse has thrown in some dull effort over the past twelve months, and as he has to give weight to all his rivals. He produced a solid performance when winning the Coronation Cup (G1) over this distance at Epsom on Derby day, beating his stable companion Septimus by 1 ¼ lengths, with Maraahel back in third. The latter is now five pounds better off for a 1 ¾-length beating. That margin equals just three pounds over this distance, so there is a good chance of a reversal. That said, Scorpion is the one most at home over the trip if we get a proper test of stamina.

Admiral’s Cruise, who was a game second to the top class colt Sixties Icon at Newmarket in May, makes a lot of appeal. He may not be the most consistent runner around, but he is well up to Group 2 standard on his day. He may be an improver this year also, and looking at his overall form one must say his price, 9-1 is too big. He won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes (G3) over 13 furlongs on good to soft ground at Newbury last year. That was his best performance and if he better it slightly, he is in with a serious winning chance.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 2 ADMIRAL’S CRUISE
B: 1 SCORPION
C: 7 MARAAHEL

RECOMMENDED BET


WIN: 2 Admiral’s Croise

EXACTAS: 1 and 2 reversed / boxed







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