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The CD Hcap: Track conditions crucial
by Franco Raimondi (franco.raimondi@globeform.com) / Globeform ()
Published: 2007-05-04 15:26:10


Ah Day has never lost when running on a wet track, and he has enjoyed the slop for four wins.

The distance is also ideal, and he can make his first appearance at Churchill Downs a successful one, as he goes in the 7-furlong Churchill Downs Handicap (G3)

GLOBEFORM RANKING
CHURCHILL DOWNS HCAP (G2)


Churchill Downs 5 May 2007 – 7 furlongs dirt

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, rider.
Top ranked horse on 100, with other ranked down in pounds

100 – ISTAN (Gone West) GF 111 / G Gomez
100 – AH DAY (Malibu Moon) GF 109 / M Pino
..98 – JUNIOR COLLEGE (Ide) GF 107 / J Castanon
..96 – WILL HE SHINE (Silver Deputy) GF 105 / K Desormeaux
..95 – COUGAR CAT (Storm Cat) GF 104 / R Albarado
..95 – SAINT ANADDAN (A.P. Indy) GF 106 / R Bejarano
...? – MOON’S HALO (Halo’s Image) GF ? / E Prado

Istan and Ah Day stick out here – and the latter has won all his four races over wet tracks, so if the track remains sloppy, Ah Day becomes the one to go for in this, somewhat sub-standard, sprint. He has been right up to his best on his last two starts, when chasing Silver Wagon in the General George (G2) at Laurel and again in the 7-furlong Carter Handicap (G1) at Aqueduct, where he ran on late to take third.

His main rival is probably Istan, who has been in great form in Florida this spring. He stalked the pace and battled his way up for a head win over Anglers Reef over 8.5 furlongs at Tampa Bay, and ran even better when dropping back don in trip in the 7.5-furlong Artax Handicap at Gulfstream Park. He made all that day, and beat Paradise Dancer readily by 2 ½ lengths. Istan has never been better than that, and he has a big chance. But he wants a fast track.

Junior College, well drawn on the outside, is coming off a game fourth behind the Grade One winner Bordonaro at Oaklawn Park. This step back down to his right sort of company should result in a slice of the purse.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 4 AH DAY
B: 6 ISTAN
C: 9 JUNIOR COLLEGE


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La Troienne: Zophie vs. improvers

Eleven runners
. One clear favorite. But with slightly dubious current form. And up against a bunch of lightly raced, very nice, and quite likely improving fillies. Plus, they may have to handle the slop. This race smells on an upset – and the La Troienne (G3) is a race where the betting is for two bucks only please, and the Mint Julep glass can be filled!

Appealing Zophie is squarely the one to beat in the 7.5-furlong La Toienne. She produced Globeform 110 when running out an easy winner of the Silverbulletday (G3) over 8.5 furlongs at the Fair Grounds in February, but ran a terrible race in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) over the same course and distance in March. She mad all when she won, she has enough speed for this shorter distance and she has won on a wet track. So, there is a lot to like about this filly.

The problem is, there is a lot to like about a lot of her opposition too. And it is difficuly to guess which one will improve the most – never mind which one will handle a sloppy track.

Total was second to Appealing Zophie in the Silverbulletday and – incidentally – also flopped in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She is 4lbs better off at the weights here and she has gained more experience.

Silverinyourpocket won an allowance race that has worked out quite well and she came up against a potential top class filly (Street Sounds) plus some trouble in running when fourth in the Beaumont Stakes (G2) at Keeneland last time out. She is worth a shot at a big price.

Suaveness has run with credit just behind much better than these and must also have a chance.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 5 APPEALING ZOPHIE
B: 3 SILVERINYOURPOCKET, 7 TOTAL, 11 SUAVENESS







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