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Woodford Reserve: Wide open turf event
by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2007-05-05 04:01:35 (First published: 2007-05-04 09:07:20 )


Churchill Downs: Better Talk Now will perhaps be the favorite but even predicting who deserves to be shortest in the betting, is hard enough in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1).


Einstein, coming off a solid win over this distance, Icy Atlantic, coming off a late charging win over a mile, and the filly Danzon, who is coming off a comfortable win in lesser company, all make a lot of appeal in this 9-furlong contest.

GLOBEFORM RANKING
WOODFORD TURF CLASSIC (G1)


Churchill Downs 5 May 2007 – 9 furlongs turf

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, rider.
Top ranked horse on 100, with other ranked down in pounds

100 – BETTER TALK NOW (Talkin Man) R Dominguez
..99 – EINSTEIN (Spend a Buck) GF 118 in 2006 / 2007: GF 114+ / R Albarado
..98 – MILK IT MICK (Millkom) GF 115 in 2006 / 2007: GF 110 / M Smith
..96 – DANZON (Royal Academy) GF 108+ / J Leparoux
..95 – BRILLIANT (War Chant) GF 112+ / M Guidry
..94 – ICY ATLANTIC (Stormy Atlantic) GF 111 / J Velazquez
..94 – SKY CONQUEROR (Sky Classic) GF 111 / J Castellano
..92 – GO BETWEEN (Point Given) GF 109 / G Gomez
..90 – DEFER (Danzig) GF 105 / E Prado
...? – SHAKE THE BANK (Sandpit) GF ? / T Turner

Better Talk Now has been off since running a good second to Red Rocks in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) last November, but such a layoff is hardly a worry. The old warrior produced his best Globeform rating first time out last year, and that was even running over 9 furlongs, when he beat Dreadnaught and Artie Schiller in the Dixie Handicap (G2) at Pimlico. He had the help of his pacesetter Shake the Bank that day also, and a similar scenario is looming on Saturday. The opposition is quite strong though, and Better Talk Now needs to be at his best to win. He reproduced his Dixie ratings at the Breeders’ Cup – when losing by just half a length to Red Rocks after a strong finish. He beat English Channel by 2 ¼ lengths for second and, though the form is not ’world class’ it is solid.

Einstein is coming off a game in in the Muniz Handicap (G2) over 9 furlongs at the Fair Grounds. Finishing strongly from off the pace, and overcoming a wide trip, he got up to beat Cloudy’s Knight by half a length, with the very useful Naissance Royale well beaten in third. Einstein had previoulsy been a close third to Jambalaya in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1) – a race he won in 2006 – when producing his career best to beat Go Deputy and Gun Salute. He may be better over further than 9 furlongs but Einstein has won twice over this distance, and a pacesetter in the field will suit him just as well as Better Talk Now.

EINSTEIN (Spend a Buck) GF07s

Milk It Mick needs to regain his best to have a shot but he is a bit unpredicatble and cannot be dismissed. Though he landed the Kilroe Mile (G1) last year, it is fair to say that 9 furlongs suits him just as well.

Danzon must not be forgotten. This ex-European filly was an eyecatching tenth (not beaten much) behind Price Tag in last year’s Matriarch Stakes (G1) at Hollywood Park – and her win over a mile at Keeneland last month was visually quite impressive. Danzon came from off the pace that day, made smooth headway to get within striking distance entering the straight, and quickened up to win with a bit in hand. Her runner-up, You Dancing Devil, had run a respectable race behind the Distaff Turf Mile runner Rich Fantasy in March, and the form is better than it looks at firts glance. She is a very likely improver and, since this is such a wide open race, let’s take a shot at Danzon. If she moves up a couple of lengths, she is right up with the best here.

Brilliant, Icy Atlantic and Sky Conqueror are all also in with half a chance of winning, making this a race where we want to go ’deep’ in our Pick 6 plan.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 4 DANZON
B: 5 BETTER TALK NOW, 6 EINSTEIN

RECOMMENDED BETS


DOUBLES

RACE 9: 4 DANZON
RACE 10: 2 CURLIN - 7 STREET SENSE

WIN: 4 Danzon

EXACTAS: 4 and 5 boxed / 4 and 6 boxed

TRIFECTAS

A: 4 with 5, 6 with 5, 6
B: 4 with 5, 6 with 1, 2, 7, 8, 9
C: 4 with 1, 2, 7, 8, 9 with 5, 6

B: 5, 6 with 4 with 5, 6
E: 5, 6 with 4 with 1, 2, 7, 8, 9

SUPERFECTAS

A: 4 with 5, 6 with 5, 6 with 1, 2, 7, 8, 9
B: 5, 6 with 4 with 5, 6 with 1, 2, 7, 8 ,9
C: 5, 6 with 5, 6 with 4 with 1, 2, 7, 8, 9










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