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American Turf: Winner must be special
by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2007-05-03 14:50:09 (First published: 2007-05-02 17:30:26 )


Churchill Downs: This race will probably reveal a new turf star, as a very nice bunch of 3-year-olds square off in the Crown Royal American Turf (G3) on Friday.

Eleven have been declared but Imawildandcrazyguy is also on the Kentucky Derby list. He would not be among our fancies in any case, as recent turf stakes winners Duveen, Marcavelly and Whatsthescript all make more appeal.

Birdbirdstheword returns to turf after tough races against Circular Quay and Scat Daddy, and trainer og those two – yes, he’s name is still Todd – saddles a pair of improving colts who ’could be anything’.

GLOBEFORM RANKING
CROWN ROYAL AMERICAN TURF (G3)


Churchill Downs 4 May 2007 – 8.5 furlongs turf

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, rider.
Top ranked horse on 100, with other ranked down in pounds

100 – BIRDBIRDSTHEWORD (Pure Prize) GF 107 in 2005 / GF 100 / R Albarado
..97 – MARCAVELLY (Johanneburg) GF 110+ / E Prado
..97 – WHATHESCRIPT (Royal Applause) GF 110 / I Enriquez
..95 – IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY (Wild Event) GF 102 / R Bejarano/ doubtful
..94 – DUVEEN (Horse Chestnut) GF 107+ / M Guidry
...? – DISTORTED REALITY (Distorted Humor) GF ?+ / J Velazquez
...? – TOP CROSS (Gone West) GF ?+ / G Gomez
..93 – DELIGHTFUL KISS (Kissin Kris) GF 100 / H Theriot
..88 – ROYAL WAR ACADEMY (Royal Academy) GF 95 / S Elliott
..86 – JAZZ QUEST (Jambalaya Jazz) GF 97 / J Leparoux
..89 – COBRADOR (El Prado) GF 96 / C Borel

Birdbirdstheword is top ranked on juvenile (dirt) form.
Would be ranked equal to Delightful Kiss (93) on recent form.



Marcavelly came back to racing action with a powerful display in the Transylvania Stakes (G3) over a mile on turf at Keeneland in early April, when he made a smooth and powerful move to lead early in the home stretch and wrap it up. He beat In Jest by 3 ½ lengths, with Cobrador back in third. He should improve off this run and looks the one to beat. This is a tough field but he has class written all over him, and he is taken to win again.

He won two of his four races at two and, as he was also runner-up to talents like Dreaming of Anna (in the Summer Stakes, G3) and Twilight Meteor (in the Bourbon S), his form was solid overall. He was, however, always the type to improve at three – not at all a precocious sort.

That way of seeing him is easy to sell now, after he was such an easy winner of the Transylvania. Ridden by Edgar Prado, he was soon just a few lengths off the speed, he was third at the top of the lane, and kicked away with an explosive turn of foot inside the last furlong. He was soon all on his own, and won with something in hand without Prado ever resorting to the whip.

Proven over a mile, and with good early pace, Marcavelly promises to stay further, and he is a horse we expect to see in the top flight of turf races for three-year-olds this season.

Whatsthescript a dream run on the sinside when beating Silent Soul (winner since) by 1 ¾ lengths in the Pasadena over a mile at Santa Anita in March – but it was also interesting to see how strongly this ex-Irish runner was travelling through the race. He posted a career best Globeform and there could be more to come.

Duveen can be be rated as a half-length (perhaps even a length) superior in the Palm Beach (G3) at Gulfstream Park, where he got up to beat Soldier’s Dancer by a nose. Duveen had trouble in running in the stretch and was lucky to get up – but he was by far the best. Soldier’s Dancer, who won the Tropical Park Derby (G3) in January, went on to win at odds-on at Tampa Bay next out, while Storm in May managed second behind Curlin in the Arkansas Derby (G2) on his next start.

Todd Pletcher saddles two lightly raced colts with different running styles. Distorted Reality, who may be the best, races prominently, and Top Cross comes form off the pace. Both were visually impressive in winning on their mosr recent start, and a triefecta plan without these is a brave one...

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 5 MARCAVELLY
B: 2 WHATSTHESCRIPT
C: 4 DUVEEN
D: 6 BIRDBIRDSTHEWORD, 7 TOP CROSS, 9 DISTORTED REALITY

RECOMMENDED BETS


WIN: 5 Marcavelly

EXACTA BOX: 2 and 5

TRIFECTAS

A: 5 with 2, 4 with 2, 4 (2)
B: 5 with 2 with 6, 7, 9 (3)
C: 5 with 6, 7, 9 with 2 (3)

48 SUPERFECTAS

A: 2, 5 with 2, 5 with 4 with 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 (12)
B: 2, 5 with 2, 5 with 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 with 4 (12)
D: 2, 5 with 4 with 2, 5 with 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 (12)
E: 2, 5 with 4 with 1, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9 with 2, 5 (12)


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The Edgewood: Formlines linking three


Churchill Downs: Indirect formlines link three of the nine fillies in the Edgewood Stakes, run over 8.5 furlongs on turf on Kentucky Oaks day.


RACE 5 – The Edgewood – 8.5 fur. Turf

The key to this event could be Audacious Chloe, the filly who beat Oaks contender Dreaming of Anna at Gulfstream Park. She followed up in the Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland in April, when beating Classic Neel by a neck. Neither is running here but Swingit, who was sixth at Keenalend, does – and she has a shot. She was finishing well from off the pace and beaten just 3 lengths. Good Mood, a French import trained by Pat Biancone, was eighth, and only a quarter of a length off Swingit. She had run just once in USA, when a good fourth to Valbenny at Santa Anita in December. Valbenny would be odds-on in the Edgewood, as would Audacious Chloe. Therefore, these two ‘alo rans’ from the Appalchian both make appeal.

The most interesting runner in this race, however, is Thomas Proctor’s Moonee Ponds. This daughter of Mizzen Mast has won her last three starts – all at the Fair Grounds, and she was quite impressive whan landing the Bedanken Stakes last time out. Interestingly, she had Swingit just over 3 lengths behind her that day. This indicates that Moonee Pond is nearly as good as Audacious Chloe. If she is, she wins here. She has had 5 starts and been in the first three four times, and will improve again.

Nice Inheritance ran on well from the back to take second in the Instant Racing Bredeers’ Cup at Oaklawn Park in April, checking in 1 ½ lengths behind Cream Only. That was over a mile and this step up in distance will suit the daughter of Pure Prize. She is one for the trifecta plans.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 5 MONEE POND
B: 4 NICE INHERITANCE, 8 SWINGIT, 9 GOOD MOOD










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