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Santa Anita Derby: Roxy stretching out
by Geir Stabell (geir.stabell@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2007-04-20 03:42:25 (First published: 2007-04-06 03:56:28 )


Santa Anita 7 April: This does not have the look of a high quality Santa Anita Derby (G1), but with ten runners – from various corners of the racing world – it is an interesting event.


Most likely, at least eight of these will have ‘checked off’ the Kentucky Derby trail by Sunday morning. And only a clear cut winner will make much impact on the future betting to the Run for the Roses.

King of The Roxy, coming off quite an impressive win in the Hutcheson Stakes (G2), is our top ranked horse, and also our selection. Stretching out from 7.5 to 9 furlongs he probably has most to fear from Liquidity, who produced his best form when second to Ravel in the Sham Stakes (G3) in February. Over the same course and distance he will be tackling on Saturday.

GLOBEFORM RANKING
THE SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1)

Santa Anita 7 April 2007 – 9 furlongs dirt

Top ranked horse on 100, with others ranked
down in pounds (1 length = 2lbs).
Horses presented with best Globeform, sires, riders.
A ”+” after horse indicates improvement expected.

100 – KING OF THE ROXY (Littlexpectations) + / R Migliore
..97 – LIQUIDITY (Tiznow) + / C Nakatani
..93 – SAM P (Cat Thief) + / R Domiguez
..91 – BWANA BULL (Holy Bull) + / R Baze
..88 – BLACK SEVENTEEN (Is It True) + / C Potts
..88 – LEVEL RED (Aptitude) / A Gryder
..85 – COURT THE KING (Doneraile Court) + / J Valdivia
..82 – BOUTROS (Tiznow) + / K Desormaux
..77 – TIAGO (Pleasant Tap) + / M Smith
..67 – MEDICI CODE (Medicean) + / J Chavez

King of the Roxy made a solid comeback in the Hutcheson. Always travelling strongly just off the pace, he made smooth progress on the turn, led at the top of the stretch, still full of running, and kicked away for a solid 2 Ό-length win from Bold Start (stayed on after troubled run). Bold Star runs in the Illinois Derby (G2) on Saturday (20 min. prior to this) – and it could be well worth holding any wagers on King of the Roxy until that event is over. If Bold Star wins in Chicago, double the stakes.

Liquidity is the morning line favorite – proven over course and distance, he ran a good race when second to Ravel in the Sham Stakes (G3) here in February, and he was at the same level of form when runner-up to Stormello in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) last year. Forget his dull effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2) last time out (he did too much too soon) and he has to be given full respect.

Sam P improved when finising an honest second to the impressive Great Hunter in the Lewis Memorial (G2) over 8.5 furlongs here at Santa Anita in March. He does nothing with a flash, this colt, but he has always looked a stayer and 9 furlongs will suit him better. In addition, he makes his first start with blinkers. Back in November, he beat Chelokee, who was a good third in the Florida Derby (G1).

Bwana Bull might have a similar chance, though this is some step up in class, after winning three on the bounce ‘off Broadway’. He has also been running very much like a 9 to 10-furlong horse, though been a bit one paced. He had Boutros well behind in the California Derby two starts back. Boutros has since been fourth in the Lewis (G2) – where he was 5 ½ lengths behind Sam P.

Court the King should not be dismissed. He impressed when coming from off the pace to beat the smart colt Tenfold on his second start, only to be fourth to Bwana Bull in the El Camino Real Derby (G3). Bwana Bull is 7lbs better off at the weights today – but Court the King was inexperienced, and made a big middle move before tiring. And, not to forget, he ran so much better in his previous race; over a mile here at Santa Anita. A lightly raced colt, and a late foal, he is entitled to improve more than most of these – and he will stay the trip.

Medici Code was officially 14lbs well in at the handicap when beating weak opposition at odds of 1-10 in England two months ago. His runner-up has been badly beaten twice since.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 8 KING OF THE ROXY
B: 5 LIQUIDITY
C: 2 SAM P.
D: 1 COURT THE KING, 3 BWANA BULL



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