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Mahab Al Shimaal: No star, tricky sprint
by Handicappers (handicappers@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2007-02-19 09:34:22 (First published: 2006-02-28 03:54:37 )


Nad Al Sheba 2 March: With Heart Alone bypassing, the Derrinstown Stud Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) is quite a tricky affair.

Conroy takes the best local rating into the battle - but have we seen the best of the old man by now? If he bounces back to his top form, he probably wins, though others are equally appealing. Tropical Star, coming off a solid win where he reproduced his lifetime best, is a strong contender. Botanical, so promising at this time last year but still no more than a G2/G3 performer, should also be considered. And the puzzling name is Karlo Guitar. He produced a high rating when running third to Heart Alone in Brazil last year – only to fail to break the GF 100 barrier in two starts at this Carnival.

GLOBEFORM RANKING
DERRINSTOWN STUD MAHAB AL SHIMAAL (G3)


Nad Al Sheba 2 March 2006 – 1200 metres / 6 furlongs dirt (straight)

Top ranked horse on 100 with others ranked down in pounds (1 length = 3lb).
Horses presented with sire, best Globeform and rider.

100 – CONROY (Gone West) GF 116 / 104+ (26Jan) J Murtagh
100 – KARLO GUITAR (Mountain Lark) GF 118 (Brazil 2005) / GF 98 Dubai ΄06 / M Almeida
..98 – TROPICAL STAR (Machiavellian) GF 114 / R Ffrench
..97 – BOTANICAL (Seeking the Gold) GF 113+ (2005) / K McEvoy
..90 – ROCKETS ‘N ROLLERS (Victory Note) GF 106 (2005) / GF 102 / W Smith
..90 – SAFE STRUCTURE (National Assembly) GF 106 / J Bekker
…? – HOWICK FALLS (Stormin Fever) GF ? / T O’Shea
..84 – GLAD TO BE FAST (Big Shuffle) GF 100 / A Starke
..82 – CONCEAL (Cadeaux Genereux) GF 98 / G Hind
…? – AT ONCE (Kendor) GF ? / W Mongil
..76 – AZUL DA GUANABARA (Aracai) GF 92 / A Domingos
..74 – IN THE FAN (Lear Fan) GF 90 / R Mullen
..74 – PROTECTOR (Kilconnel) GF 90 / K Shea
..70 – LINDUS ATENOR (Fraam) GF 80? / J Panas

Conroy was well held as runner-up last time but he could run better this time (though note that he had an injury last March, when running a poor race in the Golden Shaheen). Having produced Globeform 116 at the 2005 Carnival, he takes the best local rating into the battle. The old Nad Al Sheba favourite sprinted away for an impressive win over Estimraar in the Longchamp International Handicap over course and distance last February. Carrying one pound less than Estimraar, who had beaten him on his seasonal debut, Conroy won by 3 ½ lengths. His second to Heart Alone on seasonal debut was a decent effort – though nowhere near his best.

Karlo Guitar has disappointed so far at this Carnival but the Brazilian sprinter is good enough to win this if he can regain his best form. He put up a high class performance in the 2005 Grande Premio Major Suckow (G1), run over 1000 metres at Gavea. Giving Heart Alone one kilo (2lbs), he was third behind that rival, beaten just Ύ length. Heart Alone slammed Conroy & Co. here at Nad Al Sheba last, so there is no doubt about the form. The doubt is whether Karlo Guitar has picked up a few gears over the past two weeks – his best effort here has been no more than GF 98, while his third in the Suckow was assessed to GF 118.

Tropical Star bounced back to GF 114 when slamming Emerald Beauty by 3 Ό lengths over 7 furlongs last month. Racing over a sloppy track, he took command two furlongs out and won as he pleased. This performance confirms that his second place finish in the 2005 Golden Shaheen (G1) was no fluke. He checked in just a length behind Saratoga County in the big sprint, beating Botanical by a head for second. With doubts surrounding the other principals, Tropical Star seems the logical selection.

Botanical looked a classy sprinter in the making when he beat Sleeping Weapon by 5 ½ lengths last year (value for around 8 lengths) and more experience should make him better.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 11 TROPICAL STAR
B: 3 CONROY
C: 1 BOTANICAL, 7 KARLO GUITAR

RECOMMENDED BETS

WIN:
11 Tropical Star

SMALL EW / Win & Show:
7 Karlo Guitar 50-1

6 EXACTAS:

A: 11 with 1, 3, 7
B: 1, 3, 7 with 11

16 TRIFECTAS

A: 3, 11 with 3, 11 with 1, 7, 9, 10
B: 3, 11 with 1, 7, 9, 10 with 3, 11






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