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Al Fahidi Fort: Dubai Duty Free horses on show
by Geir Stabell (geir.stabell@globeform.com) / Globeform (http://www.globeform.com)
Last update: 2007-02-19 09:33:42 (First published: 2006-02-21 07:41:44 )


Nad Al Sheba 23 Feb: The Al Rostamani Al Fahidi Fort (G2), the second prep race pointing to the Dubai Duty Free (G1) on World Cup night, has drawn a full field of 12 runners.


Four of them have gained solid wins at this Carnival, with Linngari and Caesar Beware the likely market leaders. Linngari landed the Al Rashiyida (G3) on his UAE debut, beating Greys Inn and Latino Magic, who reopposes here. Caesars Beware, a high class juvenile in England in 2004, bounced back to form with an easy handicap win three weeks ago. Among his victims were the previous winners King Jock and Kandidate. They both meet him at considerably better weight terms this time, but they are still facing a tough task.

GLOBEFORM RATINGS
AL ROSTAMANI AL FAHIDI FORT (G2)

Nad Al Sheba 23 February 2006 – 1600 metres / 1 mile Turf

Horses presented with Globeform ratings, sires, riders

114 – CAESAR BEWARE + (Daggers Drawn) T E Durcan
114 – LINNGARI (Indian Ridge) K Shea
112 – KANDIDATE (Kabool) R Moore
111 – LATINO MAGIC (Lion Cavern) L Dettori
111 – NEAR DOCK (Docksider) A Suborics
108 – LORD ADMIRAL (El Prado) J Murtagh
107 – KING JOCK (Ghazi) P Smullen
107 – T-BIRD (Special Preview) T O’Shea
103 – ELLIOTS WORLD (King’s Best) K McEvoy
100 – SUMMONER (Inchinor) R Ffrench
..96 – HOLIDAY CAMP (Chester House) W Smith
..94 – SHERSHA (Priolo) M Kinane also declared Friday

Reserves:

…? – DOCUMENTO FISCAL (Hibernian Rhapsody)
..83 – RED CRESCENT(Northern Guest)
..84 – IN THE FAN (Lear Fan)
..88 – BOSRA’S VALENTINE + (Sadler’s Wells)


ANALYSIS

Caesar Beware was deeply impressive
on his seasonal debut, when he swept strongly from off the pace to win a hIgh class handicap very easily. Racing over 7.5 furlongs, Caesar Beware beat Suggestive by 3 ¾ lengths and performed to Globeform 114+. One may argue that the race set up perfectly for his running style, but do not forget two other factors; he had plenty left in the tank passing the line, and he also looked like he would be even better over further. This step up in distance should be just perfect, he may improve again, and he is a horse we simply have to bet. He is top rated, he is drawn well for a ground saving trip off the pace and he is the most likely improver in the field. Caesar Beware paid 14-1 last time but the win was not an absolute shocK, as this son of Daggers Drawn had shown his class early in his career. He has put up his two best performances when held up.

Caesar Beware earned Globeform 111+ in England in 2004, making him one of the best juveniles in Europe. He was rated equal to horses like the US trained filly Sense of Style and the French trained Helios Quercus. The gelded son of Daggers Drawn moved from trainer Henry Candy to Dubai but never ran at the 2005 Carnival (scratched twice out of dirt races). He returned to Candy, though English racing fans saw little of him last summer, as he ran only twice. He finished third in a Listed event at Epsom, 3 ¾ lengths behind Suggestive – the horse he beat by the same margin here at Nad Al Sheba three weeks ago.

Linngari is the danger. He ran right up to his best English form when gaining a front-running success in the Al Rashidiya (G3) over 9 furlongs over this course three weeks ago. After being pressed by the favourite Alayan, who dropped back tamely in the straight, Linngari held on to beat the fast finishing Greys Inn by half a length. Latino Magic returned to his lifetime best in third, a length further back. Near Dock finished seventh, 4 lengths behind Linngari.

Dropping down to a mile will suit Linngari as well as any (he won a mile Listed last year) and it is hard to imagine any of thos behind him turning the tables this time.

King Jock and Kandidate, who both opened the new campaign with a win, were fifth and sixth behind Caesar Beware on February 2. Kandidate had put up the best form previously but he has since been well beaten on dirt. It is hard to pick one of these as a third coice, so why not make this simple; and say that, if Linngari has a big chance, then Latino Magic has good place / show prospects.

Latino Magic has never been better than in his last race, which was also his seasonal debut, and running over a mile suits him well. He won a Listed event over this distance in 2004 and landed a mile handicap in Ireland last July. He was laid off after that and thus ran a big race after a lengthy layoff in the Al Rashidiya (G3). But for the possibility of the dreaded ‘bounce’ – there is a lot to like about him. Frankie Dettori rode him last time and stays with him.

Kandidate ran to GF 112 on his UAE debut. He was really well handicapped that day, but also quite a compfortable winner. It may be dangerous to dismiss him. As we know, he belongs in Group races. Clive Brittain’s charge was third in the 2000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket last May, beaten only by Footstepsinthesand and Rebel Rebel. Kandidate finished ¾ length in front of Oratorio, who went on to two Group One wins in the summer, while Dubawi was fourth (also two G1 wins later on) and Democratic Deficit fifth.

Near Dock has disappointed so far at Nad Al Sheba – but he has the class to make an impact in the Al Fahidi Fort. The way he ran first time out (behind Blatant in G3) suggested that he was not happy on dirt, and he ran much better on turf behind Linngari last out. Near Dock ran second to Martillo in a G2 and behind Tiganello in a G3 (both over a mile) in Germany last year. He also performed with credit in the Premio Vittorio di Capua (G1) in October, when fifth to the smart filly Anna Monda.

Lord Admiral is an Irish trained contender making his first start at Nad Al Sheba. He won a Listed race over a mile at Leopardstown first time out last year, and was also placed in competitive G3 races – he could well prove sharp enough to finish in the top three and we will add him to the Trifecta plan.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 1 CAESAR BEWARE
B: 7 LINNGARI
C: 6 LATINO MAGIC, 4 KANDIDATE, 9 NEAR DOCK

RECOMMENDED BETS

WIN:
1 Caesar Beware

WIN DOUBLE:

1 Caesar Beware / 2 Satwa Queen – Balanchine Stakes, Friday

5 EXACTAS

A: 1 with 7
B: 7 with 1
B: 1 with 6
C: 1 with 4, 9

10 TRIFECTAS

A: 1 with 6, 7 with 6, 7
A: 1 with 7 with 4, 6, 8, 9
B: 1 with 4, 6, 8, 9 with 7




The Balanchine: Satwa Queen meets Clinet again


Nad Al Sheba Friday: The Balanchine (LR) gives Satwa Queen an excellent chance of revenge on Clinet, who beat her in a close finish on opening day. Satwa Queen, a dual Group 3 winner in France last term, is now considerably better off at the weights, and this step up to 9 furlongs will also be a plus for the French trained filly. Clinet, representing England, has won again since that first success though, and she seems to be improving still. Can she beat Satwa Queen again and gain her third win on the bounce? Or will the South African Group 1 winner Irridescence prove too good for both?



GLOBEFORM RANKING
THE BALANCHINE (LR)

Nad Al Sheba 24 February 2006 – 1777 metres / abt. 9 furlongsTurf

Top ranked runner on 100, with others ranked down in pounds
Horses presented with sires, Globeform ratings, riders

100 – SATWA QUEEN (Muhtathir) GF 111 / E Legrix
..97 – CLINET (Docksider) GF 106 / M Hills
..?+ – IRRIDESCENCE (Caesour) GF ?+ / W C Marwing
..93 – LITTLETOWN BRIDGE (Stormin Fever) GF 102? / W Supple
..92 – BRINDISI (Dr Fong) GF 101 / J Murtagh
..90 – KITARA (Camp David) GF 99+ / A Suborics
..85 – SHERSHA (Priolo) GF 94 / P Smullen
...? – KALAFORTE (Fort Wood) GF ? / T E Durcan
..82 – QUALITY SPECIAL (Burooj) GF 91 / M Almeida
..82 – VENUS ARISING (Steinbeck) GF 91 / R L Moore
..81 – FESTIVE STYLE (Fort Wood) GF 90 / K Shea


Satwa Queen put up a solid seasonal debut when runner-up to Clinet over 7.5 furlongs on opening day in January. As it was a handicap, the French trained filly was carrying 11lbs more than Clinet, still she very nearly won. One can argue that she was given a poor ride too, as Eric Legrix did not let her stride away from the field as she was about to assert inside the fiunal furlong. Her stamina did not come into play. Satwa Queen did need the run, however, and she may have been beaten in any case. Clinet cut her down late, to score by a neck. Rock Opera was third, followed by Brindisi, Quality Special, Venus Arising, Shersha, Emerald Beauty and Festive Style.

They all meet Satwa Queen at worse weight terms here, and she really looks a solid bet. She is clearly the best horse in the field, she has already shown that she handles this track, and this step up in distance will be to her liking.

Satwa Queen was successful in two Group races in France last year. She beat Naissance Royale by 2 ½ lengths in the Prix Vanteaux (G3) over 9 furlongs at Longchamp in May, when she advanced willingly from mid-pack to lead a furlong out and win with ease. Aftar that, she was seventh to Divine Proportion in the French Oaks (G1), but she bounced back to winning form in the Prix de Psyche (G3) over 10 furlongs at Deauville in August. Her running style was similar to that in the Vanteaux though this time she had to dig deep to beat Viane Rose (rec. 4lbs) by a neck. Viane Rose went on to win the Prix de la Nonette (G3) next time out. Satwa Queen’s home form last year was quite solid, and she closed her 3yo sesason by finishing fifth, 2 lengths behind Kinnaird, in a sub-standard Prix de l’Opera (G1) over 10 furlongs at the ‘Arc’ meeting.

Clinet improved again on her second Nad Al Sheba start, when she won the Cape Verdi (LR) over a mile on February 9. This English trained filly progressed through handicaps last season, when she won a 20-runner handicap at the July Meeting in Newmarket and ran third in a Listed race, but she has moved up to a new level in Dubai. She is 9lbs worse off with Satwa Queen and it is hard to see how Clinet can give the French filly a fight this time, but she can beat the rest. She improved to GF 106 as she swept by Brindisi for a 2 ¼-length win in the Cape Verdi, with Shersha 3 ¼ lengths further back in third. Venus Arising finished seventh.

Irridesence was a G1 winner in South Africa last year, but her form is still hard to assess. She was sent to the lead three furlongs out when landing the 11-furlong Zimbali Lodge Woolavington 2200 (G1) at Greyville in June, and she may need more of a stamina test than 9 furlongs at Nad Al Sheba to be seen at her best. She beat some of the best fillies in South Afric, however, and she must be respected. Though carrying 5lbs more than Satwa Queen, Irresesence must be something very, very special to win. Put it this way; if Satwa Queen performs to GF 111 again, the South African filly needs to be as good as horses like Greys Inn, Singletary and Altieri to have a chance. The UAE handicapper has given her 102.

Littletown Bridge is the dark horse, making her comeback after a near one-year layoff. This filly struck us as more of a turf runner than one suited to dirt racing last year, and she was also inexperienced when managing second behind Satin Kiss in the UAE Oaks over 9 furlongs on the main track. She does not need ti improve much on that form to be in the first three or four in the Balanchine.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 2 SATWA QUEEN
B: 4 CLINET
C: 1 IRRIDESENCE, 7 LITTLETOWN BRIDGE

RECOMMENDED BETS

WIN DOUBLE:


Caesar Beware (Thursday) & Satwa Queen

WIN: 2 Satwa Queen

2 EXACTAS

A: 2 with 4
B: 4 with 2

8 TRIFECTAS

A: 2 with 4 with 1, 3, 6, 7
B: 2 with 1, 3, 6, 7 with 4







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