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Approaching the first edition of British Champions Day at Ascot, we are already presented with a couple of great value bet opportunities. Using sensible wagering strategies, we should be able to lock up a healthy profit in one race, and pick up an excellent over-the-odds horse in another.
THE SPRINT, A TWO-HORSE RACE
French punters are now betting into the UK Tote Pools on big racedays and their money do make a huge difference. Last year, French racing fans forced their home trained 2,000 Guineas winner Makfi down to 12-1 on the Tote, while he was 33-1 with the bookmakers. Last weekend at Newmarket, the French Middle Park challenger Family One was 2-1 on the Tote, as opposed to 5-1 in the betting ring.
What's this got to do with betting on the British Champions Day races at Ascot, you might think.
In relation to one race, the Sprint, it is highly relevant. The Sprint has two top class horses; James Fanshawe's Deacon Blues and the French trained filly Moonlight Cloud, representing the ever popular Freddie 'Godikova' Head. I know that Society Rock is a Group 1 winner over course and distance but, while the two mentioned will both be coming off career best efforts, his form has not been so good recently.
UK bookmakers go 5-2 Deacon Blues and 7-2 Moonlight Cloud.
My way of playing the race is quite simple; I am backing Moonlight Cloud at 7-2 now (Coral, Vic Chandler) and will put the same amount on Deacon Blues on the Tote on Saturday. I would not be the least bit suprised to see him as big as 3-1 or 7-2 on the Tote, as French money will be pouring in on just one horse; Moonlight Cloud. If I am right, this means that backing the two to level stakes is betting for a profit of at least 100%. One of them should run to form and win the race.
FILLIES & MARES STAKES, TAKE THIS 9-2 TODAY
Ferdoos sticks out as a must bet in the Ante-Post market today, as the lightly raced filly trained by Roger Varian is 9-2 with Boylesports. That is way too big. She is the most likely improver in this field, and she beat Vita Nova on her only previous start this season, when producing Globeform 115p. How Vita Nova, who has suffered a slight setback in her preparation for this race, should be favourite is totally beyond me. Ferdoos should be favourite, in my opinion, and I can see that 9-2 disappear quite quickly.
At this price we can even back her each-way and grab a 'bet to nothing' in the Fillies & Mares.
Last update: 2011-10-12 03:23:03 (First published: 2011-10-12 03:06:19 )
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