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Newmarket Oct 8: Six Group races, three of them for juveniles, form an excellent program at 'HQ' on Saturday.
The Dewhurst Stakes, Middle Park Stakes and Rockfel Stakes hav attracted a total of 34 youngsters ready to be tested at the highest level. These races often throw up future classic winners. In addition, we may get Bredeers' Cup pointers in the Challenge Stakes and Darley Stakes, two highly competitive races for the older brigade. This is a raceday not to be missed.
Here's your free copy of Globeform's Pre-raceday Report, a regular part of the Premier Paddock Pass Service.
2:05 - CHALLENGE STAKES (G2) 7 furlongs
A disappointingly small field, where the top weight STRONG SUIT fully deserves to be a short priced favourite. This is his ideal trip, and the race is meant as a final prep for the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) at Churchill Downs next month. I would think he has a good chance of getting a mile on a turning track in the US and it will be interesting to see him in action here. Making his fifth start of the year, Strong Suit is coming back after a break since his solid win from another good 7-furlong performer, Red Jazz, over this distance at Goodwood in late July.
LECHEVALIER CHOISI looked really well when I saw him at York in August, and almost got away with front-running tactics in a 7-furlong Listed contest, eventually finishing a game third, 1 ½ lengths behind Doncaster Rover. He has not run since.
CHACHAMAIDEE is in great form and coming off a staying-on second to Saphresa in the Sun Chariot Stakes (G1) over a mile here two weeks ago. She is also effective over this trip but will need a strong pace. She had MAQAASID 5 ¾ lengths behind her in fifth when winning a G3 over 7 furlongs at Goodwood in June. Maqaasid returns to the Rowley Mile racecourse, where she ran two such fine races in the spring; for third placings in the Nell Gwyn Stakes (G3) over 7 furlongs and 1,000 Guineas (G1) over a mile. She was unable to build on that form in G1 contests at Longchamp and Newmarket July course, but has had a 10-week layoff now and may be interesting.
GIANT SANDMAN, a Norwegian challenger and as such one that I have seen, produced his career best when winning a Listed sprint at Taby Galopp in Sweden last time out. He beat Dingle View (a G3 winner in Ireland last year), by 1 ½ lengths. That was in a one-turn 6-furlong event on a very flat track, but Giant Sandman has also won a G3 at Ovrevoll in Norway (undulating and more testing). He is taking a step up in class here.
2:35 – MIDDLE PARK STAKES (G1) 2YO - 6 furlongs
16 juveniles lining up in what looks a wide open affair on paper. The Middle Park will be a competitive race, that's for sure, but I am not at all sure about the quality of this field. BAPAK CHINTA, one of our Notebook Horses, has not raced since he won at Royal Ascot in June, beating Boomerang Boy by 1 ½ lengths in the Norfolk Stakes (G2). That was over 5 furlongs on good to soft ground and his task this time is 6 furlongs on good to firm ground. Quite a difference.
BURWAAZ, who has been a model of consistency and run well over 5 furlongs since, was back in fourth in the Norfolk. He has improved since but is best over 5 furlongs and 6 furlongs at this course can be somewhat testing. He always looks well in the paddock.
CASPAR NETCHER has been improving all along since his debut fourth in the Woocote Stakes (LR) at Epsom in June. Having won his last two races in good style, he will be popular in the betting. He took the Gimcrack Stakes (G2) at York by 2 ¼ lengths from Lilbourne Lad (who was conceding weight) in August. Burwaaz was third, Justineo fourth, B Fifty Two fifth and Reply sixth that day. Reply has since won a valuable sales race at Doncaster and he may be improving. Caspar Netcher went on to land the Mill Reef (G2), also over 6 furlongs, at Newbury last month, when he beat Redact by half a length. Saigon finished third, beaten ¾ length. How Saigon can be 20-1 in the betting, when Caspar Netcher is as short as 5-1, is beyond me.
FAMILY ONE, a winner of four of his six races in France (over 5 and 6 furlongs), ran second to Dabirsim in the Prix Morny (G1) at Deauville in August. He bypassed the Arc weekend to come here instead and looks very interesting. Dabirsim won the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1) impressively from what looked an impossible position at Longchamp on Sunday, and I should think that he would be long odds-on in this Middle Park field. I also think he would have beaten these by at least three lengths, so Family One looks decent value at 9-2 in the early betting. He looks the best morning bet for me on this card. Sofast, who was fourth in the Morny, won well next time and was runner-up to Dabirsim on Sunday, so the form is working out well.
3:10 – DEWHURST STAKES (G1) 2YO - 7 furlongs
2 Notebook Runners, bets already advised:
> EKTIKAAM Win @ 4-1
> SPIRITUAL STAR EW @ 9-1
These are two of the most impressive looking maiden winners I have seen this year and they both have plenty of scope for improvement.
EKTIHAAM has won twice, and he was still very green when winning at Doncaster four weeks ago. He has not beaten anything to write home about in his two races, but he looks a top class prospect. A most imposing colt. Opinions are divided regarding the quality of the maiden race SPRITUAL STAR won here at Newmarket two weeks ago. Some say it was poor, I say it was a well above average bunch that lined up (though quite few of them needed the run). Either way, there was a lot to like about Spiritual Star, and I think supplementing him for the Dewhurst was a wise move.
POWER, coming over from Ireland, has solid form in the book and will probably start favourite – but I am still not convinced about this colt. His 'human connections' influence the price, and he seems poor value to me. That said, the form of his National Stakes (G1)
win was given a boost when the third-placed David Livingston went on to beat Akeed Mofeed in the Beresford Stakes (G2) two weeks later.
BRONTERRE was an easy 5-length winner of a Listed event over this distance at Goodwood on Sep 10. His runner-up, Justineo, runs in the Middle Park and if he makes his presence felt there we must take a closer look at Bronterre for the Dewhurst. The filly Nayarra was third behind him at Goodwood, and she went on to finish a close third to Alsindi in the Oh So Sharp Stakes (G3) next time out. Alsindi runs in the Rockfel today (4:25).
3:50 CESAREWITCH HANDICAP - 2 miles 2 furlongs
I don't follow the horses in this division and hardly ever get
involved in this race. I will probably give it a miss altogether
and dedicate mnore time to studying the juvenile fillies in the next.
4:25 ROCKFEL STAKES (G2) 2yo fillies / 7 furlongs
This is quite mixed on paper, with too many questions and too few answers to be had from studying the form. I guess only a clear message from one of these fillies in the preliminaries will tempt me into having a bet. The Rockfel has two once-raced maiden winners, the Charles Hills trained GRAY PEARL and Jim Bolger's filly JANEY MUDDLES. In addition, Aidan O'Brien runs the twice-raced maiden winner WADING. Where these three stand against the more exposed runners is anybody's guess.
WADING was always prominent when outclassing Aloof and Oh So Lucky in a 7-furlong maiden at Dundalk on Sep 23. Those two had filled the minor places behind Silver Sycamore in a similar event at Leopardstown three weeks earlier.
Silver Sycamore runs in the Star Appeal Stakes (LR) at Dundalk on Friday evening (7:30) and may give us an indication of how strong this form is.
Wading is certainly bred to be special. She is a daughter of Montjeu and is the first foal out of Cherry Hinton (Green Desert), who is closely related to Sea The Stars and a half-sister to Galileo, Black Sam Bellamy and My Typhoon. This is an excellent family and Wading is bred to be an Oaks candidate. She can be backed at 25-1 for the Epsom classic today.
ALSINDI, a good sort with plenty of scope, stepped right up from a Yarmouth maiden win to landing the Oh So Sharp Stakes (G3) over this course and distance two weeks ago. She came form off the pace and finished really well to beat Questing by a neck. Further progress is likely from this Clive Brittain trainee.
REGAL REALM disappointed when only fourth behind Lyric Of Light (who won a G1 next out) in the 8-furlong May Hill Stakes (G2) at Doncaster last month. It came only two weeks after she had won the Prestige Stakes (G3) at Goodwood and perhaps it was too quick. I though she would develop into a Guineas contender next year but that's doubtful. Regal Realm is quite small and we may have seen the best of her. She was fitted with a Monty Roberts blanket for stalls entry at Doncaster.
SUNDAY TIMES finished best of all when second, beaten only half a length, behind Lightning Pearl in the Cheveley Park Stakes (G1) over 6 furlongs here last month. The impression was that she would have won that event with another furlong. She is an attractive filly with plenty of scope and she is improving.
BANA WU, one of our Notebook horses, can be no more than a small each-way bet here, as she steps up in class after running second to Gathering in a maiden event over a mile at this venue in September. I was thinking more in terms of making easy money in a maiden when adding her to my list but her connections have decided to aim high.
5:00 AUTUMN STAKES (G3) 2yo / 1 mile
Not an impressive looking field on paper.
PERENNIAL, yet another Notebook runner for us on this card, was very immature when making a winning debut at Doncaster – but he was also very fit. Fitness-wise he is not likely to have moved forward as many debut winners do but he may be mentally so much better this time, and should be respected. His runner-up at Doncaster, Godolphin's Encke, was an easy odds-on winner here at Newmarket on his next start, while Curzon Line (fourth at Doncaster) and Brailsford (fifth) have both disappointed since. Perennial is a half-brother to G1 winner Redwood (who also won on his debut).
ASTROLOGY, a 10-1 winner at Leopardstown first time out, was third behind Dragon Pulse and Parish Hall (who runs in the Dewhurst) in a G2 over 7 furlongs at The Curragh on Aug 20 and has not run since. The form looks interesting. Dragon Pulse split Power and David Livingston when second in the National Stakes (G1) three weeks later. Astrology is a Galileo son out of the Prix Saint-Alary (G1) winner Ask For The Moon and thus bred to stay at least 1 ¼ miles next year.
5:35 DARLEY STAKES (G3) 2yo / 9 furlongs
SRI PUTRA has run so many good races in defeat, but he seldom wins. This ought to be a good opportunity, though I would not be confident about him.
DUX SCHOLAR is open to further improvement, as may the French runner BUBBLE CHIC be, and the same can be said for QUESTIONING, who steps up in class after experiencing a terrible run in the Cambridgeshire Handicap over this course and distance two weeks ago. He will again be racing in a visor.
Sri Putra was third behind So You Think and Workforce in the 10-furlong Eclipse Stakes (G1) at Sandown Park in the summer. That level of form gives him a big chance in the Darley but he was well below it when fifth to Champion Stakes contender Green Destiny last time out.
Dux Scholar has been consistent and game in his three last races, over three different tracks, and there is no reason to doubt that he can act as well here.
Bubble Chic is coming off a close fourth in a G3 event at Longchamp, where he was beaten 1 1/4 lengths behind Godolphin's winner Casamento (who may be a candidate for the Champion Stakes next weekend). The French trained colt takes a drop in distance here and that could well bring about improvement. He may be the best value play in this finale. Don't forget, Bubble Chic was second in the French Derby, after having finished just 1 ½ length behind the brilliant Pour Moi in the spring.
Good luck to all!
Last update: 2011-10-09 04:36:34 (First published: 2011-10-07 09:48:19 )
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