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Short field likely, take each-way value now
by Handicappers / Globeform
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Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe betting

Well over 100 names are still on the list of nominations to the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) but, after taking a closer look at this list and the status of the leading contenders, one thing seems clear; this year’s Arc field could come up quite short. Each-way punters should get their bets on now, before the bookmakers wake up to this fact – and start cutting these prices.

Click on for status on intended starters in the big race at Longchamp on October 3, and our two best value ‘ew’ bets to the championship event.

STATUS OF HIGH PROFILE ENTRIES
QATAR PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE (G1)


FAME AND GLORY / Intended runner
CAPE BLANCO / Intended runner
YOUMZAIN / Intended runner
SARAFINA / Intended runner
BEHKABAD / Intended runner
NAKAYAMA FESTA / Intended runner
PLANTEUR / Intended runner
DUNCAN / Intended runner
VICTOIRE PISA / Intended runner
MARINOUS / Intended runner – but needs supplementing

PLUMANIA / Possible runner, no alt. engagements Arc weekend

WORKFORCE / Possible but not confirmed runner

VISION D’ETAT / “Runs if race does not look too tough” says trainer

DARYAKANA / Seems doubtful, def. absentee if soft ground

BYWORD / Unlikely runner – will be rested up to next season

With just ten names on the ‘all but certain to run’ list, plus hopefully also Workforce taking his chance, the Qatar Prix de l’Arc is most unlikely to get a big field. If Workforce drops out, Vision d’Etat may move into the field (his alternative is the Champion Stakes at Newmarket), while Daryakana is doubtful after showing dull form recently. If she runs again this year it will probably be in Hong Kong in December – where she is guaranteed to get her ground. Byword has been ruled out by connections and is unlikely to run again this season.

Even with three to four additional names, pacemakers and naïve no-hopers, the field should not get more than 15 runners. If Workforce runs, he will not have a pacemaker, while Aidan O’Brien probably does not feel the need for a pacemaker for his duo Fame And Glory and Cape Blanco.

When bookmakers offer ante-post odds for the ‘Arc’ they anticipate the traditionally big field and are therefore not afraid to price up a number of horses creating each-way value. Most likely, this year some of these will be great value, as a medium sized field would put less emphasis on the draw and also reduce the chances of traffic problems.

So, which are the each-way snips then? The one that really does stick out is the Irish trained Fame And Glory - who can still be backed at 6-1. He has an excellent chance of winning and it is hard to see him finishing any worse than third. Backing him each-way now gives us a bet to nothing for the win part. Imagine what a bet that will be if Workforce drops out. Japan’s top contender Nakayama Festa is the best each-way bet among the longshots.

At 33-1 he is simply way too big – and he must be backed. He has solid form and ran a very nice prep over course and distance in the Foy. The Japanese fans always smash into their stars in the French PMU tote pool and there is no way this runner will start at such big odds on course. About 16-1 is more likely and UK bookmakers will not be able to offer 33s closer to the race. In particular if our theory is right, and the race gets fewer than 15 runners.

RECOMMENDED EACH-WAY BETS

FAME AND GLORY @ 6-1

NAKYAMA FESTA @ 33-1


240910










Last update: 2010-09-24 05:12:06 (First published: 2010-09-24 05:05:14 )

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