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After snapping up some great value prices in the ante-post betting, like our tasty 25-1 about leading Turf contender Spanish Moon, two weeks out is a good time to spot those horses way too low in the future books.
Click on for our list of horse that are cerrtain to pay a better price at Santa Anita on the day, when you are guaranteed a run for your money, than they are being offered in the �all in� wagering by the bookmakers.
BREEDERS� CUP CLASSIC
RIP VAN WINKLE 2-1. This is way too short. He may be good and he is the best of the Europeans, but 2-1 is an absolute over-reaction to recent developments, and to last year�s result. That Raven�s Pass and Henrythenavigator ran so well over the Pro-Ride does not mean that all Euros will thrive on the main track at Santa Anita. There will be so much money for other horses, not least Zenyatta if she runs here, and it is hard to see Rip Van Winkle going off at much shorter than 5-2 on the day. Realistically, he should be a 3-1 shot and, who knows, perhaps North American racing fans will make sure we get that price or even better at Santa Anita.
TWICE OVER 12-1 is not at all a high profile horse on the international stage and, though he is coming off three straight wins � the most recent in a Group One � he will not figure high on the list of any expert / handicapper leading up to this year�s Classic. His price at Santa Anita will probably be somewhere between 20-1 and 30-1.
BREEDERS� CUP MILE
GOLDIKOVA / Evens. Even money�? Two weeks out�? Before we know the exact field, way before we know the post position draw�? They must be kidding! Last year�s winner is the obvious favourite but there is now way she will be as short as that on the day. The Mile gets a deep field, with other horses sure to take some action at the windows, and 2-1 seems more likely for Goldikova on the day.
BREEDERS� CUP TURF
TELLING 20-1. This may seem a fair price, as he has won a Grade One this year, but Telling is not a top class performer and the US racing fans are well aware of that. 20-1 in a future bet makes no sense at all. He could easily be much bigger at Santa Anita on the day.
PRESIOUS PASION 8-1 will be a more popular choice amongst those who want to oppose the Europeans, but 8-1 is still fairly short at this stage. Here are two good reasons not to take that price; firstly, some bookmakers will surely be offering 10-1 or 12-1 closer to the day, as money comes for the Euros � secondly, Presious Passion should not, under any circumstances, be shorter than 8-1 at Santa Anita when the gates open.
Last update: 2009-11-07 04:36:51 (First published: 2009-10-23 05:09:07 )
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