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Three great bets: 14-1… 10-1… 8-1
by Geir Stabell / Globeform
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Breeders’ Cup:

The big weekend is fast approaching, and those who are a step ahead of the pack in their form studies can pick up som great bets in the future books.

The feeling in this office is that we are at least one step ahead, as the 14 Breeders’ Cup races have been given full time focus here since the beginning of the month. The feeling is also that the betting markets currently offer three fantastic value bets. Horses with solid chances of winning, yet can be backed at 14-1, 10-1 and 8-1. These prices may not last but they are there right now, so make sure not to miss them.


NEGLIGEE (Juvenile Fillies) is an interesting contender for the fillies’ race, part of the ‘Ladies Friday’ on November 6. This daughter of Northern Afleet, trained by John Terranova, improved significantly when taking the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) over 8.5 furlongs at Keeneland on her third start. Gaining a smooth half-length success, she beat the previously undefeated filly She Be Wild, with the dual winner Amen Hallelujah back in third. She Be Wild, who had won the Arlington-Washington Lassie (G3) with ease and figured high in the betting for the Juvenile Fillies, was beaten fair and square at Keeneland. It is hard to see how she can reverse the form with Negligee, who is the one of the two most likely to improve a great deal again. Prior to the Alcibiades, she had won on her debut and finished second to Fanny Freu on the Ontario Debutante at Woodbine (winner won stakes also next out but flopped in the Frizette). This is what we call ‘fast improvimg form’ and at around 10-1 Negligee looks an interesting bet for this race.

DIAMONDRELLA (Turf Sprint) produced her career best Globeform rating when landing the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland, her final prep for the Breeders’ Cup. Coming from just off the pace, after having travelled really well throughout the contest, she won by almost a length from Tizaqueena, with the favourite Forever Together closing from lastv to third. The latter was clearly compromised by the slow pace scenario, something that helped Diamondrella – as she is a runner with plenty of speed. Diamondrella has alternative races at the Breeders’ Cup. She can run in the Mile, Filly & Mare Turf or the Turf Sprint. Her owner said straight after the win at Keeneland that he favors the Turf Sprint, and it is easy to see why. Court Vision (in the same ownership) runs in the Mile, making it sensible to keep Diamondrella away from that heat – where she would have to face Goldikova and other top Europeans. The Filly & Mare Turf could be too much of a stamina test for Diamondrella, so saddling her for the Turf Sprint really is a ‘no-brainer’. Bookmaklers have her listed as big at 8-1 for the sprint over the tricky downhill course, which often finds Euro shippers out first time they try it. It’s great value.

GLADIATORUS (Mile) came back to form with a powerful display in the Premio Vittorio di Capua (G1) last time oout, after gradually creeping back up the form ladder in his previous races. How this horse can still be backed at 14-1 for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, is hard to fathom. Gladiatorus was a deeply impressive winner of the Dubai Duty Free (G1) at Nad Al Sheba in March, where he led from gate to wire and simply crushed the field. And it was a top class field he beat, with Luca Cumani’s star performer Presvis running on for second and G1 winners like Archipenko, Vodka, Jay Peg and Kip Deville all hopelessly beaten. Gladiatorus joined Godolphin after thIs win and they sent him to England. That was probably a mistake, as a front-runner like him is always more effective on turning tracks. US style racing should bring out the best of him and, given a good draw, he holds a leading chance in the Mile.


RECOMMENDED BETS:

Three win bets, one each-way treble, three win doubles (7 bets)







Last update: 2009-10-31 15:50:13 (First published: 2009-10-22 07:20:45 )

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