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Breeders’ Cup ’09: Several bookmakers have opened books on the Breeders’ Cup Series.
With a fair amount of guesswork regarding running plans involved, plus limited knowledge on international formlines, some of their early prices are way too big – while others are much too short.
Two names in particular stand out as excellent early bets, one at 25-1 and the other at 20-1, both thus more than double the price they ought to be.
Breeders’ Cup Mile: Justenuffhumor 20-1
Generally a 16-1 chance with most bookmakers (and that is also a good price), Kiaran McLaughlin’s Breeders’ Cup Mile contender Justenuffhumor can still be backed at a massive 20-1 with Boylesport Bookmakers. Considering his constantly improving form, his trainer’s record and the fact that this horse is definitely being trained for the Mile, that is a price almost too good to be true. In winning the Bernard Barouch Handicap at Saratoga, Justenuffhumor moved up to Globeform 117P, a rating that puts him right on the heels of the top milers around. Of course, matching strides with last year’s winner Goldikova would require another big step up, but she was well below her best in the Prix de la Foret (G1) at Longchamp and don’t be worried about betting against her – at least not when we have a live 20-1 shot on the plate. The draw can beat any horse in the Mile (remember Rock Of Gibraltar…) and backing Goldikova ante-post at even money is pure madness. No thanks, Justenuffhumor, who has won five of his six career starts (beaten only on debut, after a bad start) at 20s makes much more appeal. He may get his Breeders’ Cup prep in the Shadwell Mile (G1) at Keeneland on October 10.
Breeders’ Cup Turf: Spanish Moon 25-1
Sir Michael Stoute is planning to run last year’s winner Conduit again in the BC Turf, but the brilliant Newmarket handler also has Spanish Moon pencilled in for the 1 ½-mile contest over Santa Anita’s lawn, and the Juddmonte horse has been improving nicely in Europe this season. He won the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1) in France (left-handed track) by beating Alipne Rose and Youmzain (who have both franked the form since), and he outpointed the Royal Ascot winner Vision d’Etat when setting the pace in the Prix Foy (G2) at longchamp in September. Quite why Vision d’Etat should be 14-1 and Spanish Moon 25-1 (Skybet) is hard to understand. For a start, Spanish Moon’s connections have said that the Turf is under serious consideration – which is good to know. Arc runner-up Youmzain can be backed at 10-1 and that may seem very tempting but he is not going for the Breeders’ Cup, and should not be on these lists.
Grab a bit of the 25s about Spanish Moon now, and double up if / when moves up to the ‘confirmed’ section of the list.
Justenuffhumor (Mile) Each-way at 20-1
Spanish Moon (Turf) Each-way at 25-1
Plus an each-way double on the two.
Last update: 2009-10-07 06:47:01 (First published: 2009-10-05 08:30:47 )
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