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Nad Al Sheba: With only day to go before the big Dubai World Cup Day bookmakers have opened ante-post books on some of the championship events. Four races have now been priced up and three horses in particular stick out as way too big on these lists.
DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC
Latency, who is a whopping 40-1 with some future books in England (33-1 with others), is a horse one simply cannot resist backing here. Take him each-way (place & show) and you have an 8-1 bet about him finishing in the top three. True, he was badly beaten here in the Maktoum Challenge on dirt, but he was poorly ridden that day (too far back off a slow pace) and his best form in South America came over this distance on turf. See more about this contender in his horse bio.
Youmzain at 6-1 is a tremendous price. How the Mick Channon trained runner, who ran such a good race in this event twelve months ago, is not the favourite is hard to understand. Youmzain was unlucky last year, when a slow pace compromised his chances. He has since improved, to run second behind Dylan Thomas in two top class races in Europe, the “King George” at Ascot and the “Arc” at Longchamp. In Paris, Youmzain was beaten just a nose by Dylan Thomas. What price would Dylan Thomas be if he lined up in the Sheema? Not 6-1, that’s for sure!
The son of Sinndar has been in Dubai for two weeks, and settled in well in the sunshine. He had been doing plenty of work at home before travelling, and is very fit. He must have a big chance of winning next Saturday.
Quijano at 14-1 also looks too big, and he is a sensible each-way bet. Quijano went really well over this course and distance at the Carnival last year and, though he was well beaten in the Sheema then, he is a leading contender this time around. Quijano is a late developing German horse, he improved steadily in 2007 and won a Group One at home. His seasonal debut in Dubai was very encouraging, as he was running well until ‘blowing up’ inside the final furlong. As he was carrying a Group One penalty, the performance came back strong on figures. He is probably improving still and he has a sound chance.
THE GODOLPHIN MILE
Diamond Stripes, the best of the North American contenders for this race, was actually priced up at 8-1 for a short while last week, but in a revised book he is 7-2 (Bluesquare). Keep an eye on how other betting firms price him, as this may be a horse English odds compilers do not have much of a handle on. He was game and consistent in the USA last season, when he won the Meadowlands Cup (G3) and was a good third in the Clark Handicap (G2) at Churchill Downs. He had also been third, albeit beaten 9 ˝ lengths, behind the top older horse Lawyer Ron in the Woodward Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.
All these three races are over 9 furlongs but Diamond Stripes is 2-for-2 over a mile, so the distance is not a problem. Trained by Richard Dutrow Jr, he has been aimed at this event all winter.
Any 4-1 or 5-1 popping up in the coming days must be taken, even 7-2 looks quite good. And no, before you ask, I did not get that 8-1 either… missed it being too busy studying the Lincoln form, where my selection failed to make the cut!
Check back for any other value bets daily, as prices will be offered for all races.
Last update: 2008-03-24 17:58:17 (First published: 2008-03-22 08:43:08 )
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