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Dubai World Cup day will be an excellent racing feast for the betting fan.
But with six top class thoroughbred races, a championship event for Purebred Arabian, and horses from all corners of the world clashing, this can also be a tricky day to play.
Some value bets and interesting longshots will be sought out on these pages – though the key to a successful betting day is often to discover the banker on the card. One name to help us to a solid exacta / trifecta plan, or a treble / pick three plan.
HEART ALONE (Music Prospector) GF 125+
Heart Alone looks the standout win bet on the day. The Brazilian sprinter may not pay much over 2-1, but if he reproduces his course and distance form that is going to be great value in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1).
The 5-year-old was deeply impressive on his UAE debut in the Najah Al Shindagha Sprint (G3) in January, when he carried a G1 penalty to an effortless 3 ¼-length win over Conroy (who often runs well fresh), with Thajja, Safsoof and Tropical Star filling the next places. Conroy and Tropical Star are among the best sprinters in Dubai, but Heart Alone really turned this contest into a one-horse affair.
Travelling strongly throughout 6-furlong the race, he went ahead on a tight rein and jockey Mick Kinane hardly moved a muscle as the horse drew off – he had been imposing in the paddock, and he was even more so in the finish. Heart Alone could have won by further. He returned Globeform 125+, the joint-highest rating achieved so far at the Carnival (same as Electrocutionist).
The form is quite solid. Runner-up Thajja is no star but went on to run respectable races behind Kodiac and Rock Music in competitive handicaps. Safsoof was third in Rock Music’s race, his next start after the Al Shindagha. Tropical Star, who finished second, just a length behind Saratoga County in the 2005 Golden Shaheen (G1), has given Heart Alone’s form a double boost since. He has won both his subsequent starts, beating Emerald Beauty in a handicap and taking the Mahaal Al Shimaal (G3) readily from Azul Da Guanbara. That was the final prep to the Golden Shaheen, and Karlo Guitar (who was 7th in the Al Shindagha) finished fourth, with Conroy fifth.
These will not be the toughest rivals for Heart Alone in the Golden Shaheen (G1) – a race attracting five North American sprinters; Captain Squire, Proud Tower Too, Thor’s Echo, Jet West and Gaff. They all have smart form but none of these horses are in the same class as previous US winners Saratoga County, Caller One and One New Recruit. Captain Squire, who is capable of Globeform 118 on his day, is the best of the quintet but he has not shown such form for a while.
Heart Alone has nothing to fear from the sprinters seen out earlier at the Carnival, and as the US team is a bit sub-standard this year, he is impossible to oppose.
The son of Music Prospector showed smart sprinting form also in Brazil in 2005, when landing the Grande Premio Major Suckow (G1) at La Gavea in August, running 1000 meters in :55.7 seconds. That win was assessed to GF 119+ and Heart Alone seems to be an improving older horse. He is your banker of the day.
Last update: 2006-03-22 10:54:28 (First published: 2006-03-16 06:23:36 )
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