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Breeders' Cup: Make sure to take this price!

by Geir Stabell / Globeform
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The value bet over all value bets has just popped up in the future books to the Breeders' Cup Series.

Let's take advantage of it before it is too late. With fields taking shape all the time, one needs to keep a close look at these markets. Some good ones will be found. Here's one you are sure to agree is begging to be backed.

WISE DAN has been confirmed for the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), as his owner Morton Fink announced that the brilliant gelding will be entered for that race and that race only, not be given the BC Classic as an option. Wise Dan stands head and shoulders above anything he is likely to face in the Mile, including any Europeans that might turn up. Not that they appear to be having a particularly strong team for the Mile this year. Excelebration is a classy performer, as is the filly Elusive Kate, but they have never been anywhere near the level of form Wise Dan has. He is our top rated horse in North America, with Globeform 132 to his name, and he goes into the Breeders' Cup off an easy win in the Woodbine Mile (G1) in Canada. Excelebration and Elusive Kate will if they cross the Atlantic be coming off a run on testing ground in the QE II at Ascot just two weeks prior to the Breeders' Cup. That is uncomfortably close. The French trained filly Moonlight Cloud and last year's Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom may both have a better chance. Though, unless one of them suddenly improves markedly (unlikely) and / or Wise Dan runs markedly below form (unlikely), well, then these will be running for places. The draw can be a factor in the Turf Mile and that will be a worry for future book punters. We would not like to see Wise Dan drawn out wide. Then again, we are taking 100-30 about a horse that should be no bigger than 2-1 here, and even with a tricky draw that would be value.

That said, remember that Wise Dan has the strong tactical speed to overcome a wide draw if he needs to, just like Lure did at Santa Anita in 1993. Lure was by far the best and won from the widest stall. Is Wise Dan as far superior this year? Yes he is. At least.

Recommended bet: WISE DAN 100-30 / Breeders' Cup Mile / Coral Bookmakers

Last update: 2012-10-17 14:01:07 (First published: 2012-10-17 13:23:05 )

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