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BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT and FILLY & MARE SPRINT

by Handicappers / Globeform
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Last year's winner Amazombie looks the one to beat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1). This division that is otherwise quite open. The impressive Forego winner Emcee might be his biggest threat. Older horses make most appeal, as the best three-year-old sprinters keep on beating each other, something that is never a good sign.


GLOBEFORM RATINGS
BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT (G1)

Santa Anita 3 November 2012 - 6 furlongs dirt

Horses presented with best Globeform ratings achieved
in 2011 and 2012 and GF ratings achieved last three starts (l-to-r)

1 length = 3lbs over this distance


124p - AMAZOMBIE / 119 124p - 119p
122 - SMILING TIGER / GF 122 in 2011 / 98 113 99
120p - THE LUMBER GUY / 107p 90 120p
118p - COIL / ?p 118 - 118p
117 - CAPITAL ACCOUNT / 114p 117 - 117
116 - TRINNIBERG / 106 104 - ?
?P - FAST BULLET / Globeform ?P in 2011
115p - JIMMY CREED / ?p 114p - 115p
115 - JUSTIN PHILLIP / 105 115 - 102
115 - POSEIDON'S WARRIOR / 107 115 102
115 - SUM OF THE PARTS / 113 - 109p - 115
115? - GANTRY / 104 115? - ?
114 - HAMAZING DESTINY / 110 112 - 114
107 - BOXEUR DES RUES / ? - 103 - 107


GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

AMAZOMBIE
can take the BC Sprint back-to-back, having landed the contest from subsequenst G1 winners Force Freeze and Jackson Bend at Churchill Downs last year. Amazombie ran to GF 119p that day and he improved to GF 124p when taking the Bing Crosby (G1) over 6 furlongs at Del Mar in July. The 6yo son of Northern Afleet was seriously good that day, and beat fellow top class sprinter The Factor (now retired) by 1 lengths, with CAPITAL ACCOUNT back in third place. Amazombie, who is a speedy runner with a strong late kick, was rested for over two months after his win at Del Mar, and he resurfaced in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) over the BC Sprint course and distance a month ago. Formerly known as the Ancient Title, this contest has been a key prep for the Sprint so many times, and there is no reason to treat it any differently this year.

The race was won by Bob Baffert's 'new sprinter' COIL, who beat his barnmate CAPITAL ACCOUNT by a head, with Richard Mandella's JIMMY CREED lengths further back in third and Amazombie fourth. Bill Spawr's champion of 2011 checked in 1 lengths behind Coil that day. He was giving the winner 5lbs, and he was not given a hard race by his rider Mike Smith. It was a perfect prep. And it seemed even more impressive when it emerged that tests taken after the race showed that Amazombie's blood was not quite right. He needed the run, he was conceding weight, his rider was easy on him in the closing stages, and he was a bit under a cloud. All in all this points in one direction only; he will reverse the form with three in front of him on Saturday. He has drawn perfectly in stall 11 and is a confident selection in this office.

SMILING TIGER ran his best race when winning the Triple bend Handicap (G1) at Hollywood Park in July 2011. His easy win over Camp Vicory and Amazombie put him high on the list for last year's B Cup Sprint, but Smiling Tiger was on the sidelines when the big race was run. He has had three starts in 2012, without getting close to G1 winning form and he has not raced since June 30. That said, his Triple Bend win came after a break and it is worth noting this contender's back class, and his good record at Santa Anita.

THE LUMBER GUY ran a remarkable race after a long layoff when winning the 6-furlong Vosburgh Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park in late September. Not having raced since a non-staying sixth in the 9-furlong Peter Pan (G2) over the same track in May, he showed a great attitude to knock out some experienced older sprinters for a 1 -length win over Caixa Eletronica. The runner-up was off the board in the Bold Ruler last weekend but that means little (the race was not run to suit) and with Globeform 120p The Lumber Guy must be respected. He is one of two possible big improvers in this field.

FAST BULLET is the other one. This Bob Baffert's third runner but not so sure he is 'no. 3' in the pecking order. Fast Bullet has not run for a year. He won both his starts in 2011 and looked quite special when winning an allowance race by almost four lengths at Hollwood Park. That came a month after a comfortable debut win over 6 furlongs at Santa Anita. Fast Bullet has not been given a Globeform rating, simply because it is impossible to do so with any confidence. He could be anything from GF 110p to GF 120 and certainly is the dark horse in the race.

TRINNIBERG represents the 3yo sprint division. A division that, until The Lumber Guy came back, had not produced anything to get excited about. Trinninberg is, however, fast early on and he seems sure to have an influence on the speed scenario.

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS

A: 11 AMAZOMBIE
B: 6 FAST BULLET, 7 THE LUMBER GUY
C: 4 COIL, 8 CAPITAL ACCOUNT, 10 SMILING TIGER





GLOBEFORM RATINGS
BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT (G1)

Santa Anita 2 November 2012 - 7 furlongs dirt

Horses presented with best Globeform ratings achieved
in 2011 and 2012 and GF ratings achieved last three starts (l-to-r)

1 length = 2lbs over this distance


124 - GROUPIE DOLL / 124 - ?p - 124
123 - TURBULENT DESCENT / GF 123 in 2011 / 120 117 - 110
118 - MUSICAL ROMANCE / GF 118 in 2011 / 115 111 111p
117 - SWITCH / 116 107 - 97
116 - TEDDY'S PROMISE / 100 113 - ?
115 - DUST AND DIAMONDS / ?p - ?p 115
113 - RUMOR / 110 111 113
112 - STRIKE THE MOON / 112 110 110
111 - GREAT HOT / 110 - ? - 111
107 - BELLE OF THE HALL / 102 104 - 107

GLOBEFORM ANALYSIS

GROUPIE DOLL
has performed to Globeform 124 twice in recent starts. She is the logical favorite in this sprint, as she has produced some explosive performances since fitted with blinkers this year. She has won four straight; the Madison (G1) at Keeneland, Humana Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs and finally the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) back at Keeneland on October 6. Groupie Doll was at her very best in the Humana Distaff, when slamming Musical Romance by over seven lengths, and in the 'TCA', when Strike the Moon was lesft over six lengths behind by the wire. Groupie Doll is as good over 7 furlongs as she is over six, her off the pace running style means that the faster they go up front early on, the better it is for her. She will not be easy to beat.

TURBULENT DESCENT - so good when winning last year's Test has been a bit hit and miss since joining the Pletcher barn. Her wins in the Desert Stormer and Ballerina (G1) did show that she retains her ability, however, and it would be folly to write her off.

MUSICAL ROMANCE won this race last year but she is a contender it is tempting to toss out this time. Her win in the Princess Rooney (G1) at Calder was smart form but not up to her best in 2011, and even that will not do here as the 2012 F&M Sprint looks tough.

SWITCH and TEDDY'S PROMISE fall into the same bracket, and are closely matched. Hitting the board may not be impossible but winning it? Probably not.




Last update: 2012-11-01 07:19:09 (First published: 2012-08-27 12:27:43 )

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