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Four horses stand out as great value bets as we are just days away from Dubai World Cup Day at Meydan.
UAE DERBY: WROTE 5-1 (William Hill)
Winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Churchill Downs last autumn, this colt was progressing fast at the end of his two-year-old campaign, and he must be favourite for the UAE Derby. The local contenders, headed by Mickdaam, are below par this year, so the main danger to Wrote probably lies in the trio of Daddy Long Legs (who enjoyed the run of the race when beating Wrote at Newmarket last year but was well behind him at the Breeders' Cup), Lucky Chappy (4th B Cup Juvenile Turf) and the French challenger Yang Tse Kiang (smooth winner first time up this year).
The form of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) has worked out well in the USA this winter, and Wrote looks too big at 5-1. An each-way wager looks like a bet to nothing.
DUBAI DUTY FREE: AWAIT THE DAWN 11-1 (William Hill)
Quite how this Irish trained challenger can be 11-1 is hard to understand. He is a top class performer from a top class stable, and he has drawn well in the Duty Free – something that cannot be said for some of the other leading contenders. Await The Dawn may find this distance a bit on the sharp side, however, that is the one main factor against him. Hopefully the pace will be strong. On class, he is right up there with the best in this field. Don't forget, this horse was 8/13 favourite against the likes of Twice Over and Midday in the International Stakes (G1) at York last August (when beaten and very sick after the race). He won his seasonal debut in 2011, scooting up by almost five lengths in a G3 over 1 ¼ miles at Chester (a tight left-handed track). After his big win at Royal Ascot in June, he was seen as a Ballydoyle contender for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), for which he was a 10-1 shot in the future books. And now we can have 11-1 with a run for the Duty Free. Each-way bet strongly recommended.
See more on Await The Dawn in his his horse bio.
DUBAI DUTY FREE: RAJSAMAN 40-1 (William Hill)
Okay, this ex-French runner has been poor in Dubai so far but Rajsaman was capable of mixing it with the best milers in Europe last year and 40-1 just looks too big. At least it tempts me into a small EW bet. It would be a surprise if he won but not an absolute shock, as he has the back class, and a return to form would give him a good chance of finishing in the top three. Drawn in stall three, he has a good starting point (between Await The Dawn and Ambitious Dragon).
GOLDEN SHAHEEN: THE FACTOR 6-1 (Paddy Power / Chandler)
See separate article on The Factor – who is way too big at 6-1 for this race.
He can even be backed at 9-1 with RaceTab in Australia.
THE FACTOR 9-2
AWAIT THE DAWN 11-1
3 Win Doubles on the three
Each-Way bets on all three (6-1 The Factor, Paddy Power, Vic Chandler)
Last update: 2012-03-29 03:51:06 (First published: 2012-03-27 05:59:45 )
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