Yes, they all tipped Zarkava. 33 of 36 newspaper experts in France went for the Arc winner, and she obliged at Even money. Some had a better price though.

Two months ago our editor and chief handicapper Geir Stabell gave his readers Zarkava as his only fancy for the Arc, and at the time she was 5-1 with the bookmakers.

See Stabell's InFocus Aug 4 below. It's quite clear what he meant.

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InFocus Aug 4: Big Brown made it back to the winners’ cirlcle. After a hard fought win in the Haskell Invitational (G1), the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes hero seems to be back on track.

”I thought we were beat turning for home,” Richard Dutrow said as it was all over. I’m not surprised. Big Brown was under serious pressure but, bit by bit, he responded and he was clearly the best. This battle will have taught him moe than the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes put together.

At Deauville, the Freddie Head trained filly Goldikova upset the two favourites Darjina and Natagora in the Prix de Rothschild (G1). This result confirmed that Goldikova belongs in the top of her division, but more to the point; it confirmed what an exceptional filly Zarkava is.

She is my idea of this year’s winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

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Quick, brief, no-nonsense Globeform NewsNotes ahead of the Breeders' Cup weekend at Santa Anita, October 24-25

Paco Boy, impressive winner of the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp on Saturday, will not go for the Breeders' Cup Mile.

Curlin completed a satifactory work over the new Pro-Ride track at Santa Anita on Monday. Ridden by Carlos Rosas, last year's BC Classic winner breezed half a mile in :52 4/5.

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Out next week: Globeform's brand new US Racing & Betting Manual, an info packed A4-book of 100 pages, fully illustrated, is an absolute must for anyone taking an interest in North American racing. Beginners and experienced players alike.

You can buy this comprehensive publication and download it directly from our web site from Friday.

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- Pick 4, good system needed
- Pick 6, the life changing wager
- How to read US racecards / programs
- The US courses, what's what?
- Knowing the US trainers
- Knowing the US jockeys
- Tracks and surfaces in focus
- European horses in the USA
- South American horses in the USA
- Ante-post / future betting on US races
- Medication, the added factor
- The 'bounce' theory, all nonsense?
- North American Stakes race calendar


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GEIR STABELL takes a look back on the most significant results and performances during the past week, assesses the formlines, also collateral lines, and looks ahead to future targets for the leading players.

They’ll meet, they’ll meet…
What an unusual autumn this is…

InFocus Oct 1: This is the time of the year one is always anticipating the big clashes, but all too often they do not happen. Touch wood, there is still time for horses to drop out, for various reasons but, as we enter the month of October, expecting the most fascinating clashes in end of season championship races seem more realistic than ever. On Sunday, we will almost certainly see the Irish trained ‘iron horse’ Duke Of Marmalade against the flashiest filly seen in France since the days of Miesque, the unbeaten Zarkava. They meet in the Prix de l’Arc, with last year’s narrow runner-up Youmzain and French Derby winner Vision d’Etat thrown in for good measure.

That should be a good race.

At the Breeders’ Cup there may also be a clash all of us have been hoping for ever since Big Brown ran away with the Kentucky Derby, namely a race against the might Curlin. Not just that, the Breeders’ Cup Classic is likely to get Raven’s Pass, a top class miler from England, and possibly even Duke Of Marmalade.

That should be a good race.

It comes a day after what will be one of the highligts on ‘Breeders’ Cup Ladies Day’ – when Zenyatta puts her unbeaten record on the line, and the best juvenile filly in California, Stardom Bound, may be taken on by Rainbow View, unbeaten in four starts in England.

That should be a good race.

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InFocus Sep 16: Three vital prep races for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) were staged at Longchamp in Paris on Sunday, and the three-year-old filly Zarkava was undoubtedly the star of the show. Put to a real stamina test, after a tardy start had left her trailing the pace by many lengths, the daughter of Zamindar produced a top class finish to win the Prix Vermeille (G1) by two lengths in stakes record time. She only hit the front in the last few strides but Zarkava won the race under wraps, followed by a typically eccentric celebration by her equally flashy rider Christophe Soumillion.

This filly was recommend as a good Arc bet on the InFocus review on August 4, when she was still available at 5-1 with the bookmakers. The best you will get today is 7-4 and, given the love affair developing between French racing fans and Zarkava, she will probably start nearer even money on the big day. And she will probably win again.

Zambezi Sun was a narrow winner of the Prix Foy (G2), where he just got the better of Godolphin’s front-running Schiaparelli, a champion in Germany last year, while this year’s winner of the Prix du Jockey-Club, Vision d’Etat, made a pleasing comeback to take the Prix Niel (G2).

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InFocus Sep 10: The Michael Jarvis trained five-year-old Pressing led home an all English trifecta in the big race during the international weekend meeting at Veliefendi Racecourse, as he was superbly ridden by Neil Callan to beat the favourite Linngari and Stimulation in the valuable Topkapi Trophy (G2) over a mile on turf.

Turkish racing is rising fast on the international scene, and their horses defended really well against better known visitors, to keep three of the four stakes races at home, via wins for the rock solid Inspector, the well ridden Harputlu Gaggos and the three-year-old filly Berraksu.

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InFocus Sep 04: All being well, the mighty four-year-old Curlin will pass the ten million dollar mark by the time his career is over. As one of the world’s most expensive thoroughbreds, he is the best around at the minute. Though that assessment is not based on his win in the Woodward Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. Curlin looked anything but mighty at the Spa, but he cashed in once again. He got the job done.

For the connections of the juvenile filly Mani Bhavan this week has also been a case of ‘job done’, as the daughter of Storm Boot remained undefeated by landing the Spinaway Stakes (G1).

Not many $30,000 yearlings reach such heights.

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InFocus Aug 25: Duke Of Marmalade visited England twice last week. First, only to spend a couple of hours at the airport before returning home to Ireland as York was cancelled on Tuesday, then to race for a couple of minutes at Newmarket on Saturday, where he won his fifth Group One on the bounce. This son of Danehill is as tough as they come, not least mentally. Something which cannot be said for New Approach.

Unfortunately, he is beginning to send out signals indicating that he will find it hard to win again at the top level, and he could only manage third at Newmarket.

The Travers Stakes (G1) went to a colt fully entitled to improve with age, though Colonel John was a very lucky winner of the big race at Saratoga, as his nose hit the line just in front of Mambo in Seattle. They came home over five lengths in ahead of Pyro but somehow I still have my doubts about this form. It does not look top class. Pyro had no luck in running and would have finished closer with a clean trip.

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InFocus Aug 17: The Alabama Stakes (G1), a race that has never produced a Breeders’ Cup winner, should have a good chance of doing so this year. Proud Spell, whose experience and excellent riding tactics counted as she outbattled the odds-on favorite Music Note, must be a leading contender for the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic (G1) at Santa Anita. But so is the runner-up. She’s pretty good too and she will have learnt something at Saratoga on Saturday.

It is not satisfactory, however, when only five runner line up for a race of this standing, never mind when two of the five are entrymates. In the Sword Dancer (G1), won again by Grand Couturier, the field numbered just six. Over in France on Sunday, the Prix Jacques le Marois (G1) has just eight runners, including one pacemaker. A bit better but it is hardly a ‘deep field’. Why do we see more and more of these small G1 fields, sometimes totally lacking totally strength in depth?

The answer is simply; There are too many of them.

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InFocus Aug 10: The Arlington Million (G1), run for the 26th time on Saturday, was a highly unsatisfactory race. I know what I would say, if I had anything to do with the winner Spirit One. Recommend a quick sale, or retirement to stud. This was one of the most fortunate big race winners I have ever seen.

There was nothing fortunate about the juvenile filly Rainbow View’s wide marging win in the Sweet Solera Stakes (G3) at Newmarket though. The daughter of Dynaformer was simply different class and won by 6 lengths. She is now vying for favoritism for next year’s 1,000 Guineas (G1). You can get 6-1. Does that make sense? I don’t think so. To my eye, she looks more like a ‘now horse’ than one for next year.

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The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) has, as we suspected, been injected by pacemakers, supplied by Team Ballydoyle. This means that we will get a strongly run race on Sunday, which will suit the horses at the head of the betting. The leading contenders, Derby (G1) winner Authorized, Irish Derby (G1) winner Soldier Of Fortune, King George & Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) winner Dylan Thomas and Grand Prix de Paris (G1) winner Zambezi Sun will all be happy with a strong pace. And, despite Manduro’s absence, whoever comes out on top here deserves to be called a champion.

With Mandesha also in the field, this ‘Arc’ is of high quality, and we can look forward to an exciting contest. Longshots Youmzain, second to Dylan Thomas at Ascot, and Saddex, representing Germany, are also likely to make their presence felt.

GLOBEFORM RATINGS
PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE (G1)
Longchamp 7 October 2007 – 2400 m / 12 furlongs turf

Horses presented with best Globeform, sire, rider

128 – AUTHORIZED (Montjeu) + / L Dettori
125 – DYLAN THOMAS (Danehill) + / K Fallon
124 – SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (Galileo) + / J Murtagh
121 – MANDESHA (Desert Style) / C Soumillon
118 – SADDEX (Sadler’s Wells) / T Mundry
118 – YOUMZAIN (Sinndar) R Hughes
116 – DRAGON DANCER (Sadler’s Wells) / D Holland
117 – ZAMBEZI SUN (Dansili) + / S Pasquier
118 – SAGARA (Sadler’s Wells) + / T Gillet
115 – YELLOWSTONE (Rock Of Gibraltar) / P Smullen
113 – GETAWAY (Monsun) / O Peslier
…? – SONG OF HIAWATHA (Sadler’s Wells) / D McCabe

Mandesha gets 3lb sex allowance – add three pounds to rating for direct comparison.

AUTHORIZED was impressive when winning the Vodafone Derby (G1) at Epsom in June, when he was always travelling supremely well under Frankie Dettori and ran out a solid 5-length winner from Eagle Mountain, with Aqaleem third, Lucarno fourth and Soldier Of Fortune fifth. The latter gave the form a nice boost when running away with the Irish Derby (G1) on soft ground next time out, but Authorized suffered defeat on his next outing; in the Eclipse Stakes (G1) at Sandown Park. Dropping back down to 10 furlongs, he was not at his best that day and had to settle for second behind Notnowcato (who got first run and raced on a quicker strip of ground). Authorized bounced right back to his best in the Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) at York, where he tackled 10.5 furlongs on a galloping track. He had won the Dante Stakes (G2) over the same course and distance in May. This time, he met older horses though, and he won by a length from Dylan Thomas, who was staying on strongly late on but was always held by Authorized.

They meet again in Paris, and this time over 1 ½ miles. On soft ground, one would have to favour Authorized, but the sun is shining in Paris and he may not get that. Another worry is the way he travelled at York. Again, he travelled strongly, but he was also always ‘just on the edge’ of beginning to pull, and that is never a good sign in a young horse. To win the Arc, one needs to settle and save every ounce of extra energy for the last 400 metres. Longchamp has a long straight, not as long as York, but still testing. On ratings, Authorized is the one to beat but his current odds (6/4) is way too short. He is not that far superior, and there are other factors worth considering. Such as the fact that he has never been shipped abroad before, and that he never raced on a right-handed course.

Prior to his Derby win, he landed the Dante on only his third lifetime start. It was his seasonal debut, and he produced a high-class performance without having to be extended. He beat Raincoat very easily by 4 lengths, with Al Shemali third and Adiago fourth.

As a juvenile, he won the Racing Post Trophy (G1) over a mile at Newbury (where he had been third in a good maiden on his debut). Taking the mile event in good style, by 1 ¼ lengths from Charlie Farnsbarns, he looked an exciting prospect already that day. And he has proved to be the best 3yo in Europe. On Sunday he tries to beat a bunch of solid, top class older horses. He has every chance of doing so.

DYLAN THOMAS is our selection, however. The way he was finishing behind Authorized at York suggested that there will be very little between these two colts when they meet over 1 ½ miles. Dylan Thomas went down by just a length, after having been a good few lengths behind Authorized two furlongs out. He was gaining with every stride and ran yet another genuine race. His next start, in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1), brought him back to the winners’ enclosure, as he out-battled his stable Duke Of Marmalade to win the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) by 1 ½ lengths. Was he at his best? Not at all. Did he need to be? Not at all. Shrewdly plotted, Aidan O’Brien won the Irish Champion for a second time with this colt, without having him at his peak.

Having beaten Ouija Board in the Irish Champion in 2006, Dylan Thomas began this season very much as the horse everyone in Ireland was looking forward to seeing again at four. And he has not disappointed. A Group One win in France early in the season, over somewhat soft opposition, was overshadowed by the form he produced to with the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (G1) over 1 ½ miles at Ascot in July. Kicking for home quite early, he was in a different class, and beat Youmzain by 4 lengths. Maraahel and Laverock were well beaten in third and fourth. This was not a particularly strong “King George” field but Dylan Thomas could hardly have been more impressive, and 1 ½ miles is definitely his best distance.

In between these two wins, he was beaten by Notnowcato in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1) at the Curragh, and by Manduro in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot, both over 1 ¼ miles. On Sunday, Dylan Thomas returns to 1 ½ miles and, given a strong pace, he will be a hard nut to crack when he gets into top gear inside the last two furlongs. At around 7-1 with the bookmakers, Dylan Thomas represents tremendous value.

SOLDIER OF FORTUNE gained a solid enough win in his prep race, the Prix Niel (G2), when he beat SAGARA and ZAMBEZI SUN. He was much better in the Irish Derby (G1), when the ground was testing, and his win in Paris last month was not all that impressive. He’s good, but he seems to lack a turn of foot. The two French colts appeared to be given easier races, and Zambezi Sun in particular is expected to step up on Sunday. Something he has to. True, he won a Group One very smoothly in the summer but it was a highly unsatisfactory race, with his main danger falling and the rest of the field being pretty moderate for a G1. Pascal Bary’s colt does, however, have just the right profile for a French trained 3yo winner of the Arc.

MANDESHA has been sneaking slowly but surely back up in form lately and she could well spring a surprise. Last year’s champion filly, who was so brilliant over this course and distance when winning the Prix Vermeille (G1) just over a year ago, ran a very promising race when second to the ill-fated Manduro in the Prix Foy (G2). The signs are good, and if she reprosuces her career best (perhaps even better it), she can beat most of the boys. Get her Globeform Annual essay below.

MANDESHA (Desert Style) GF07s

GLOBEFORM SELECTIONS
A: 2 DYLAN THOMAS
B: 12 AUTHORIZED
C: 6 MANDESHA, 7 ZAMBEZI SUN, 10 SOLDIER OF FORTUNE

RECOMMENDED BET:
WIN: Dylan Thomas (7-1 best price)

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